Soumillion on Librettist

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know u asked BTW but here's my take on this horse. I think he's a longshot at best. He's been unsuccessful three times now when moving up to grade one company. I think that's important because I looked and every European shipper that has won the Mile except for Domedriver has had at least one grade one win prior to winning the Mile. And Domedriver had at least run second in a grade one. European sprinters have done ok in the Mile (Last Tycoon and Royal Academy come to mind) and that gives some hope to a horse like Sleeping Indian but I think there accomplished milers to take him seriously. Also, both times he tried a mile in stakes company, the comment line says he faded. One last thing is that the Challenge Stakes, the race he just won, doesn't have a history as a producer of Mile wins. Only three of the winners have come over for the Mile but none were a factor and in fact, no horse that's finished on the board in that race has ever been a factor in the Mile. In my opinion, he's the longest shot of the European invaders.

Great analysis- thanks KG. I'm looking for all the help I can get on the European contenders. What were the 3 winners that previously came over, and did they have similar credentials?

I'm trying to dig deep on this one, as I can poke holes in all of the top contenders outside of Gorella- and even she may be compromised as I don't see a ton of pace in this race relative to most years. BoS may end up on the lead by default and I wouldn't trust him with anyone's money off the long layoff. He got away on the front end in his last but those were glacial fractions for Santa Anita. Aragorn will probably get first jump, but losing ground late to the unaccomplished and nowhere near this group's level Courtnall scares me. Coming home in 23 3/5 won't be good enough. Librettist seems to be the logical choice but his horrible result last out is a cause for concern. Araafa isn't exactly a win machine- and the Goodwood race leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The other euro that is intriguing on a pace/current form perspective is Echo of Light. no match in the Goodwood race but considering he has some reasonable early foot he may find himself in the first flight into the turn which is huge, he'll be able to settle right off of BoS- he's coming off a solid G2 win at Longchamp and appears to relish firmer turf more than the other invaders. thoughts?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by philcski

Great analysis- thanks KG. I'm looking for all the help I can get on the European contenders. What were the 3 winners that previously came over, and did they have similar credentials?

I'm trying to dig deep on this one, as I can poke holes in all of the top contenders outside of Gorella- and even she may be compromised as I don't see a ton of pace in this race relative to most years. BoS may end up on the lead by default and I wouldn't trust him with anyone's money off the long layoff. He got away on the front end in his last but those were glacial fractions for Santa Anita. Aragorn will probably get first jump, but losing ground late to the unaccomplished and nowhere near this group's level Courtnall scares me. Coming home in 23 3/5 won't be good enough. Librettist seems to be the logical choice but his horrible result last out is a cause for concern. Araafa isn't exactly a win machine- and the Goodwood race leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The other euro that is intriguing on a pace/current form perspective is Echo of Light. no match in the Goodwood race but considering he has some reasonable early foot he may find himself in the first flight into the turn which is huge, he'll be able to settle right off of BoS- he's coming off a solid G2 win at Longchamp and appears to relish firmer turf more than the other invaders. thoughts?

The three previous ones were Selkirk, Catrail, and Charnwood Forest. Selkirk and Charnwood Forest were both good milers. Selkirk had won the the QE II the year before and in the year he won the Challenge, he had a couple of group two wins and placings in the Sussex and QE II. He was really good. Charnwood Forest was a cut below the best. He had won another group two but in couldn't quite get over the hump in group ones, finishing second three times (Palace, Lockinge, Sussex). Catrail was strictly a sprinter who's only previous stakes win came at 6f in a group three.

The Goodwood race was very odd for Araafa. It seemed like maybe the fast pace did him in. They went in 1:36 that day, pretty fast for a European mile. The thing that I like about Araafa is that if u look at his last four, the comment line says he's gone to the lead around the 6-7f mark. That's what I remember about the QE II race. I thought at the 6f mark he was home free but that last quarter found him wanting, not surprising to me since that race is more like a 10f test of stamina due to the course layout there.

Echo of Light is one that I'm going to take a stand against also. Like Sleeping Indian, he doesn't have a grade one win or even a placing on his resume. In his two tries in grade one company, he has finished 15th and last (at 10f though) and then he was 6th of seven at a mile. The consistency of his Timeform numbers says he should be able to compete with the best in here but I just don't get that feeling. It was encouraging to see him rate in his last but the company he kept in that race was even below grade two standards in my opinion. It is a race that Decorated Hero won before running third in the 1997 Mile and Domedriver won it before winning the 2002 Mile so there is some back history but for the most part, in my opinion, it's one of the weaker grade two races they have. Even though Araafa bombed at Goodwood, he still finished four in front of Echo of Light and Rob Roy, another entrant here, was five in front of Echo. I'm going to guess that trying to keep up with the usually faster American pace will find Echo of Light going backwards at the end. I think his biggest advantage might be the footing as u mentioned.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

Great analysis- thanks KG. I'm looking for all the help I can get on the European contenders. What were the 3 winners that previously came over, and did they have similar credentials?

I'm trying to dig deep on this one, as I can poke holes in all of the top contenders outside of Gorella- and even she may be compromised as I don't see a ton of pace in this race relative to most years. BoS may end up on the lead by default and I wouldn't trust him with anyone's money off the long layoff. He got away on the front end in his last but those were glacial fractions for Santa Anita. Aragorn will probably get first jump, but losing ground late to the unaccomplished and nowhere near this group's level Courtnall scares me. Coming home in 23 3/5 won't be good enough. Librettist seems to be the logical choice but his horrible result last out is a cause for concern. Araafa isn't exactly a win machine- and the Goodwood race leaves a bad taste in my mouth. The other euro that is intriguing on a pace/current form perspective is Echo of Light. no match in the Goodwood race but considering he has some reasonable early foot he may find himself in the first flight into the turn which is huge, he'll be able to settle right off of BoS- he's coming off a solid G2 win at Longchamp and appears to relish firmer turf more than the other invaders. thoughts?

Echo of Light is one of the more talented horses in the mile IMO... he's kind of hit or miss though... he's either explosive or he bombs out...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Echo of Light is one of the more talented horses in the mile IMO... he's kind of hit or miss though... he's either explosive or he bombs out...

Being that he's owned by Godolphin and is a son of Dubai Millennium, I can't help but think that if Godolphin thought he was that good, they would have been running him in grade one races. I would think they would love to have all sons of DM be grade one winners. For me, the fact that they sent Librettist to the big races and kept Echo behind for the smaller ones is a sign to me which one they feel more confident in.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Being that he's owned by Godolphin and is a son of Dubai Millennium, I can't help but think that if Godolphin thought he was that good, they would have been running him in grade one races. I would think they would love to have all sons of DM be grade one winners. For me, the fact that they sent Librettist to the big races and kept Echo behind for the smaller ones is a sign to me which one they feel more confident in.

He could be the most talented horse in the world, but if the maturity level isn't there, he's not going to win.

[Hwjb]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The three previous ones were Selkirk, Catrail, and Charnwood Forest. Selkirk and Charnwood Forest were both good milers. Selkirk had won the the QE II the year before and in the year he won the Challenge, he had a couple of group two wins and placings in the Sussex and QE II. He was really good. Charnwood Forest was a cut below the best. He had won another group two but in couldn't quite get over the hump in group ones, finishing second three times (Palace, Lockinge, Sussex). Catrail was strictly a sprinter who's only previous stakes win came at 6f in a group three.

The Goodwood race was very odd for Araafa. It seemed like maybe the fast pace did him in. They went in 1:36 that day, pretty fast for a European mile. The thing that I like about Araafa is that if u look at his last four, the comment line says he's gone to the lead around the 6-7f mark. That's what I remember about the QE II race. I thought at the 6f mark he was home free but that last quarter found him wanting, not surprising to me since that race is more like a 10f test of stamina due to the course layout there.

Echo of Light is one that I'm going to take a stand against also. Like Sleeping Indian, he doesn't have a grade one win or even a placing on his resume. In his two tries in grade one company, he has finished 15th and last (at 10f though) and then he was 6th of seven at a mile. The consistency of his Timeform numbers says he should be able to compete with the best in here but I just don't get that feeling. It was encouraging to see him rate in his last but the company he kept in that race was even below grade two standards in my opinion. It is a race that Decorated Hero won before running third in the 1997 Mile and Domedriver won it before winning the 2002 Mile so there is some back history but for the most part, in my opinion, it's one of the weaker grade two races they have. Even though Araafa bombed at Goodwood, he still finished four in front of Echo of Light and Rob Roy, another entrant here, was five in front of Echo. I'm going to guess that trying to keep up with the usually faster American pace will find Echo of Light going backwards at the end. I think his biggest advantage might be the footing as u mentioned.

That's some thorough research, good work!

However, I have to query some of your conclusions.

Sleeping Indian is lightly-raced for a five-year-old and hasn't been the easiest to train. Seven furlongs in Europe would appear to be his optimum trip, for all that he ran with great credit when 5th in last year's Sussex and not discredited in filling the same position in the QEII. He won twice over a mile at 3, however, and I fancy that the eighth furlong around the extremely tight American tracks could be right up his street. His effort in the Foret on his penultimate outing is readily forgiven as everything went against him and, given that he made his reappearance as late as September, it is far from inconceivable that he can find more. His ability to race close up should hold him in good stead.
It would be silly to read anything into Araafa's win rate. He is evidently a far better three-year-old than he was at 2, his 2,000 Guineas run representing rock solid form. His defeat of George Washington in the Curragh proved his ability to handle heavy going and at Royal Ascot he showed himself to be equally effective on quicker ground with an impressive victory in the St James's Palace. It is glaringly obvious that Alan Munro was loathed to give Dettori (on Echo of Light) too much rope up fron in the Sussex, both as a result setting off far too fast. Both were shot to bits over a furlong out and can be forgiven the run (araafa also reportedly returned a little sore). We have Araafa's second to George Washington as his career-best effort, 3-lb in advance of the St James's win. He travelled strongly throughout, leading for much of the final 2f until George blew by. Without that opponent here he should be a deserving favourite, like Sleeping Indian his prominent style of racing should be beneficial with such a short straight.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Hwjb

That's some thorough research, good work!

However, I have to query some of your conclusions.

Sleeping Indian is lightly-raced for a five-year-old and hasn't been the easiest to train. Seven furlongs in Europe would appear to be his optimum trip, for all that he ran with great credit when 5th in last year's Sussex and not discredited in filling the same position in the QEII. He won twice over a mile at 3, however, and I fancy that the eighth furlong around the extremely tight American tracks could be right up his street. His effort in the Foret on his penultimate outing is readily forgiven as everything went against him and, given that he made his reappearance as late as September, it is far from inconceivable that he can find more. His ability to race close up should hold him in good stead.
It would be silly to read anything into Araafa's win rate. He is evidently a far better three-year-old than he was at 2, his 2,000 Guineas run representing rock solid form. His defeat of George Washington in the Curragh proved his ability to handle heavy going and at Royal Ascot he showed himself to be equally effective on quicker ground with an impressive victory in the St James's Palace. It is glaringly obvious that Alan Munro was loathed to give Dettori (on Echo of Light) too much rope up fron in the Sussex, both as a result setting off far too fast. Both were shot to bits over a furlong out and can be forgiven the run (araafa also reportedly returned a little sore). We have Araafa's second to George Washington as his career-best effort, 3-lb in advance of the St James's win. He travelled strongly throughout, leading for much of the final 2f until George blew by. Without that opponent here he should be a deserving favourite, like Sleeping Indian his prominent style of racing should be beneficial with such a short straight.

Those 3yo races for Sleeping Indian were a maiden and a listed race, both far below the level he's facing here. It is of interest to me to look at the comment lines for his last five races (not including the trouble filled Foret):

10/14-7f...led over 2f out, held well
9/15-7f.....rallied to lead 1f out, held gamely
10/15/05-7f.......led over 1f out, headed 170y out
9/24/05.-8f....weakened final furlong
9/8/05-7f......led 1f out, caught on line

It also has the comment "faded" for the 8f Sussex last year. To me, when I see the running styles of the other contenders, Aragorn, Librettist, Araafa, and even Echo of Light, they all seem to have the same one and would be in the same position as Sleeping Indian going around that final turn and he doesn't seem to have the same finishing power as the others do.

I don't say that he's totally without a shot here but he's the longest shot of the Euros for me. I do respect Gosden having watched him for years here in Southern Cali but I think this one is in just a big over his head. Perhaps in a smaller field, I'd give him more of a shot.

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by brockguy

nice spare ride for him. he'll also be on Hurricane Run in the Turf and Germance in the Filly and Mare. And when he wins a race (hopefully for my sake on Germance!!), and the race caller calls him French, make sure you tell everyone around you that he is not in fact French, but Belgian!!

I'd just skimmed through here regarding the jockey. I don't see the question asked, but I have to wonder. Would Soumillion be falling out of the gate, or will he be jumping out of the gate?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Those 3yo races for Sleeping Indian were a maiden and a listed race, both far below the level he's facing here. It is of interest to me to look at the comment lines for his last five races (not including the trouble filled Foret):

10/14-7f...led over 2f out, held well
9/15-7f.....rallied to lead 1f out, held gamely
10/15/05-7f.......led over 1f out, headed 170y out
9/24/05.-8f....weakened final furlong
9/8/05-7f......led 1f out, caught on line

It also has the comment "faded" for the 8f Sussex last year. To me, when I see the running styles of the other contenders, Aragorn, Librettist, Araafa, and even Echo of Light, they all seem to have the same one and would be in the same position as Sleeping Indian going around that final turn and he doesn't seem to have the same finishing power as the others do.

I don't say that he's totally without a shot here but he's the longest shot of the Euros for me. I do respect Gosden having watched him for years here in Southern Cali but I think this one is in just a big over his head. Perhaps in a smaller field, I'd give him more of a shot.

This has been duly noted, however the courses in Europe are much more tiring, perhaps the firmness will allow him to get the extra furlong. Worth a gamble at 30,40-1.

[repent]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Silent Name looked good working on the Works...

He's also due to stand stud here in the US after this year, I believe. It'd be a good thing to see him do well.

yeah,
Im not a horse person like a lot of you are,
but he did move really well the other day.
and that would be cool for him to stand here.
the Japanese are not letting us get much of the SSilence blood back in this country.


Repent

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I guess that means Dettori will ride Echo of Light which probably means Godolphin likes his chances more.

It was Dettori's decision to ride Echo instead of Librettist.....

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I know it's not his opinion of the race but yes, I think he's off on how they will be bet. I don't think they difference will be that high. I think maybe 5/1 to 20/1 would be more likely, so four times the price instead of 7.5 times the price.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Are you familiar with the phrase " cherry picking "?

I will bet you three " I am a complete idiot "s that Silent Name is over 25-1 and I will take 2-1 on another three that he is over 30-1.

Morning line has Aragorn at 5/1 and Silent Name at 20/1. Let's see what they go off at.

Darley's vet told me this morning that Librettist was doing very well from the pulled muscle he suffered last out.....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

Darley's vet told me this morning that Librettist was doing very well from the pulled muscle he suffered last out.....

Now we KNOW he's dead lame!