Too Much Bling - I am 100%

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well, the best competitors are haunted by(what they consider)their diappointments.McCarron and Baffert will never really get over Cavonnier's disappointing loss in the Derby.They just don't think about it as often as they use to.There are 2 big "National" days in this sport.They are Derby day,and The Breeders Cup.Just so happens that they are at the same place this year.Most of us simply turned the page the day after this years Derby.I doubt that was very easy for a guy who had 3 horses run poorly in the derby the day before(2 of which he thought were legit.) Now we are at the Breeders Cup,and he has how many chances to win one? Anybody like that Malt Magic? Would be a big surprise(although not impossible,)and then we come to his entry in the Sprint.Oh,and who do we have riding his horse? Isn't that the guy who had the best horse in last year's sprint,and didn't quite get it done? I think the connections of this one are highly motivated.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well there is the Vosburgh and Kings Bishop that TMB skipped. Instead he ran in the Bay Shore, Woody Strephens and Carry Back. These arent bad races but they didnt have the best fields either. In addition, if you go back several races TMB has developed a patter in beyers
80-102-99-113-99-108 - this pattern tells us he is going to run 95-100 beyer and that is not going to get it done in the Sprint.

Other than in the Stephens,it is a mistake to think he was all out in any of his races this year.In the San Vicente,and the Carryback,he had to make his own pace(not what he is best at.)In the Bay Shore,the race is won by the time he hits the top of the stretch.He is under wraps late in the San Miguel.That race is by far his best effort ever,and the Beyer on that is so far off that it is hysterical. He has raced 5 times this year.The Stephens is a well known toss race.He simply has no competition in the other 4 races.This is why it is hard to say how good he really is. When a horse wins easily like that,the beyer is not going to represent the horse's capabilities.After all,isn't this the reason Chalky Dino is such a huge choice in the classic? He has won so easily that the beyers don't represent what people think he is really capable of doing.That better be true,because Invasor is damn close on figures.So,if you go by figures alone,then Invasor is gunna be right with Chalky Dino,and TM Bling is too slow.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well there is the Vosburgh and Kings Bishop that TMB skipped. Instead he ran in the Bay Shore, Woody Strephens and Carry Back. These arent bad races but they didnt have the best fields either. In addition, if you go back several races TMB has developed a patter in beyers
80-102-99-113-99-108 - this pattern tells us he is going to run 95-100 beyer and that is not going to get it done in the Sprint.

Baffert said that he would probably train him up to the Sprint, he said he's better off of a layoff. Baffert's about the only trainer I will listen to in the media, he said that right after the race at Calder. There's no reason to think he's not ready to fire his best shot here, I think it's easier to win off of a layoff in a Sprint race than a longer race, Baffert will have him ready. His Sheet #'s are as good as HH's, I love TMB to win here....

Also, I told you about him last week, but use Free Thinking in the Mile, I just read he got the best Turf Sheet # in the history of Sheet #'s and he did that at CD. Watch that race where Akshal Way beat him, he's a game horse, and likely will be anywhere from 30-1 to 45-1...He's a must use....

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well there is the Vosburgh and Kings Bishop that TMB skipped. Instead he ran in the Bay Shore, Woody Strephens and Carry Back. These arent bad races but they didnt have the best fields either. In addition, if you go back several races TMB has developed a patter in beyers
80-102-99-113-99-108 - this pattern tells us he is going to run 95-100 beyer and that is not going to get it done in the Sprint.

That pattern tells us nothing considering he's coming into this race fresh as a daisy.

You can throw your money at him and good luck, but to me he just isnt good enough.

Originally Posted by 1st_Saturday_in_May

Euro, I tend to agree with you about his chances (I'm going back and forth), but if memory serves correct there is only one Grade 1 race for three year old sprinters - the Kings Bishop so I'm really not sure of that reason. The connections danced a lot of the big sophomore sprints early in the year - Stephens, Bay Shore, Carry Back - and Baffert wants him fresh so they shelved him. I'm not a huge fan of the layoff, but that's what Baffert wants, so who am I to question it? THe connections obvously think he is Grade 1 capable because he's in here, but what other Grade 1's would they have run him in without stretching him out?

Well there is the Vosburgh and Kings Bishop that TMB skipped. Instead he ran in the Bay Shore, Woody Strephens and Carry Back. These arent bad races but they didnt have the best fields either. In addition, if you go back several races TMB has developed a patter in beyers
80-102-99-113-99-108 - this pattern tells us he is going to run 95-100 beyer and that is not going to get it done in the Sprint.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

You can throw your money at him and good luck, but to me he just isnt good enough.

I can respect that opinion.Fact is that he has not beaten the likes of Henny Hughes,or Bordonaro.He has a lot to prove.I think 14/1 to win,and 2.8/1 to show is a bet I can take.I won't be surprised if he wins ,but I won't be surprised if he runs 4th- 5th by 3 or 4 lengths. I'll be surprised if he is uncompetitive.The facts are that there are 5 grade 1 winners in the field,and he is not yet one of them.The 1st time Lit de Justice tried to win this race,he had to settle for 3rd(I think.)Bling may also have to wait until next year,but I do see him as a grade 1 winner.If he stays sound,I think he wins this race eventually.