Saturday Santa Anita Race 7 - Page 2

ArlJim78 · #21 12-29-2006, 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Ok, I agree with it BUT he was never allowed to stretch his legs after he had a full head of steam going into the turn, that is what I am really baseing this on.

When he had that opening, the 7 drifted down and the 2 drifted out thus cutting off any opportunity to stretch his legs

We'll see what happens. I'm just offering a counterpoint cause you said you're locked and loaded.

Maybe I'm way off base, especially if Frank Lyons picked the horse.

Scav · #22 12-30-2006, 12:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

We'll see what happens. I'm just offering a counterpoint cause you said you're locked and loaded.

Maybe I'm way off base, especially if Frank Lyons picked the horse.

Other thing I forgot to mention is he is dropping in class, but that could have been a weak Grade 3 so that argument could be weak.

Maybe I am just nuts and chasing too much loot, I don't know. I might be playing a saver with Freesgood now because I agree with you, he takes and he has a huge shot, especially because Free House's progeny improves about 2 points going dirt to turf

SCUDSBROTHER · #23 12-30-2006, 12:14 AM

Well this guy who makes the line is officially on dope.I am not sure anything trained by this guy is gunna fire,but you will not get that 5-1.The only thing that would make somebody think they will get 5-1 is dope,or mental disease.

ArlJim78 · #24 12-30-2006, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Other thing I forgot to mention is he is dropping in class, but that could have been a weak Grade 3 so that argument could be weak.

Maybe I am just nuts and chasing too much loot, I don't know. I might be playing a saver with Freesgood now because I agree with you, he takes and he has a huge shot, especially because Free House's progeny improves about 2 points going dirt to turf

With two year olds I don't read too much into the class part of it. And if it is a drop in class then there are four others dropping with him from that race.
I expect that Kolo, who just broke maiden in a fast time, is going to be prominent to the end. I would also give a good shot to Gomez on the rail with Sevengoldnmissles.

ArlJim78 · #25 12-30-2006, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Well this guy who makes the line is officially on dope.I am not sure anything trained by this guy is gunna fire,but you will not get that 5-1.The only thing that would make somebody think they will get 5-1 is dope,or mental disease.

it seems a little high, but remember its a 12 horse field. I would guess 7/2 or 4/1.

Scav · #26 12-30-2006, 06:39 PM

ArlJim was right, I was wrong....Optari will burn no more money here....

ArlJim78 · #27 12-30-2006, 06:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

With two year olds I don't read too much into the class part of it. And if it is a drop in class then there are four others dropping with him from that race.
I expect that Kolo, who just broke maiden in a fast time, is going to be prominent to the end. I would also give a good shot to Gomez on the rail with Sevengoldnmissles.

Scavs? tried to do my best to warn you.

He flattened like a pancake in the stretch once again.

Scav · #28 12-30-2006, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Scavs? tried to do my best to warn you.

He flattened like a pancake in the stretch once again.

yeah I didn't even bother to look at the whole race. Kolo was a sheet players dream

2Hot4TV · #29 12-31-2006, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

With two year olds I don't read too much into the class part of it. And if it is a drop in class then there are four others dropping with him from that race.
I expect that Kolo, who just broke maiden in a fast time, is going to be prominent to the end. I would also give a good shot to Gomez on the rail with Sevengoldnmissles.

At what point do you handicap a horse to bounce. Kolo was at that point for me.

Gander · #30 12-31-2006, 09:55 AM

I hope you guys that loved Kolo bet him to win instead of just relying on hitting a pick 4 (which is never easy). Not that he payed huge, but if he was that great of a play, you need to cash tickets on those kind of horses. They dont grow on trees.

Thats the downfall of just playing pick 4's and pick 3's. You love one horse and you spread in the other legs, but still can easily lose money when your single jogs home and pays 3/1.

Scav · #31 12-31-2006, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

At what point do you handicap a horse to bounce. Kolo was at that point for me.

No way Hot.....Those incremental moves forward almost never produce a bounce, ESPECIALLY in turf racing. It is when a horse goes 10-8-2 and then they rush the horse back in 14-20 days when the sheet players ALL COME OUT and party.

ArlJim78 · #32 12-31-2006, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

At what point do you handicap a horse to bounce. Kolo was at that point for me.

Not a bounce candidate for me at all.

a young lightly horse, well handled, incremental improvement each time, this horse hadn't made a big dramatic leap in performance level that might make you think that regression was eminent, she was fast from day one and keeps getting a bit better, and lastly she appeared to be right in the middle of her development spurt. In other words, still room to improve. The maiden win was fast and she looked with herself. What I liked about here is that unlike some others in the race she has natural tactical speed that would guarantee her a prime postion.

PSH · #33 12-31-2006, 11:47 AM

Jim:

Thanks for your opposite viewpoint to Optari.
It helped me temper my wager and limit my loss on the race....
It is always hard to admit when one is wrong but the results speak for themselves.

Obviously, i was way wrong here and luckily was still able to produce a profit yesterday...

Good Luck today.... anything that sticks out for you?

I like Her Royal Nibs at Aqu Race 3 to bounce back with a winning effort, the fave Psychotic in the nightcap at Aqueduct and first timer Spinmaster at the nightcap at Turfway...

Paul

ArlJim78 · #34 12-31-2006, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PSH

Jim:

Thanks for your opposite viewpoint to Optari.
It helped me temper my wager and limit my loss on the race....
It is always hard to admit when one is wrong but the results speak for themselves.

Obviously, i was way wrong here and luckily was still able to produce a profit yesterday...

Good Luck today.... anything that sticks out for you?

I like Her Royal Nibs at Aqu Race 3 to bounce back with a winning effort, the fave Psychotic in the nightcap at Aqueduct and first timer Spinmaster at the nightcap at Turfway...

Paul

thanks Paul, I don't often counter anyones picks, what do I know? But the way you guys were talking about this lock, i took a look and had a STRONG feeling that it was not going to pan out like you were thinking so I just wanted to put my 2 cents on the table. glad you were able to have a winning day yesterday.

i have just finished going over the turfway card, haven't looked elsewhere yet. You mentioned Spinmaster going out for Romans in the nightcap at turfway. I know you have to respect any well bred 2 yo that Romans sends out, but the 8, 11, and 12 horses all have some decent races under there belts already and so I think Spinmaster will have to be a good thing to win at first asking given the experience edge they have. Also there is another firster that looks like it might pop and that is the 3 Lt. Pat. I will stay away from this race in terms of wagering.

good luck today!

Scav · #35 12-31-2006, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

thanks Paul, I don't often counter anyones picks, what do I know? But the way you guys were talking about this lock, i took a look and had a STRONG feeling that it was not going to pan out like you were thinking so I just wanted to put my 2 cents on the table. glad you were able to have a winning day yesterday.

i have just finished going over the turfway card, haven't looked elsewhere yet. You mentioned Spinmaster going out for Romans in the nightcap at turfway. I know you have to respect any well bred 2 yo that Romans sends out, but the 8, 11, and 12 horses all have some decent races under there belts already and so I think Spinmaster will have to be a good thing to win at first asking given the experience edge they have. Also there is another firster that looks like it might pop and that is the 3 Lt. Pat. I will stay away from this race in terms of wagering.

good luck today!

I wish I would have listened like Paul did......

2Hot4TV · #36 12-31-2006, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

No way Hot.....Those incremental moves forward almost never produce a bounce, ESPECIALLY in turf racing. It is when a horse goes 10-8-2 and then they rush the horse back in 14-20 days when the sheet players ALL COME OUT and party.

I have got real good at finding horses in the money when I wager, but when I figure that a bounce is coming, I really stink.