Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Of course this one will be running Friday.

You are right... both Zen and Indian Blessing are running on Friday.


That makes Saturday suck even more!

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Nobody plays Keeneland's main track anymore. Have you seen the statistics from their meet?

I don't know the amounts each individual on this board bets but I know Andy is not alone in this. Not even close. I personally will play very little, if any, on the main track races. I just do not like games of chance that much. I like gambling on horses because I feel confident that I can read a form, know the horses, and make an informed decision on where my money will go. I have ZERO such confidence in that on this track.

KG...

With all due respect, the 'games of chance' out is the widespread excuse for those unwilling to work at capping and playing synthetic tracks. The Oak Tree racing has been fair and formful on the dirt-lile Pro-Ride surface, and regulars of West Coast circuit play have stated they aren't even thinking there is any unusually 'unique' aspect to the oval.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Kasept

KG...

With all due respect, the 'games of chance' out is the widespread excuse for those unwilling to work at capping and playing synthetic tracks. The Oak Tree racing has been fair and formful on the dirt-lile Pro-Ride surface, and regulars of West Coast circuit play have stated they aren't even thinking there is any unusually 'unique' aspect to the oval.

I think you are looking at it the wrong way. It's been fair and formful.....to those that have already been stabled out in California or have shown an ability to handle a synthetic track. Some people looked at the results of the Goodwood, Oak Leaf, Ancient Title, and Lady's Secret and said they proved that it's formful. But think about it. Well Armed had already shown he liked synthetics. So had Stardom Bound and the runner-up in the Oak Leaf. The 1-2-3 finishers in the Ancient Title were all proven performers on synthetics. And Zenyatta is just a beast that can win on anything. But did you notice Hystericalady barely holding for second after the pace scenario she had? What the track showed it was is similar to other synthetics and holds the form of those races. But it still told us nothing about how horses that haven't run on it, Curlin for instance, will perform. It didn't tell us if the best horses will win the races or the best synthetic horses will win the races. That's the great unknown and for a lot of bettors, it's too big of one.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I think you are looking at it the wrong way. It's been fair and formful.....to those that have already been stabled out in California or have shown an ability to handle a synthetic track. Some people looked at the results of the Goodwood, Oak Leaf, Ancient Title, and Lady's Secret and said they proved that it's formful. But think about it. Well Armed had already shown he liked synthetics. So had Stardom Bound and the runner-up in the Oak Leaf. The 1-2-3 finishers in the Ancient Title were all proven performers on synthetics. And Zenyatta is just a beast that can win on anything. But did you notice Hystericalady barely holding for second after the pace scenario she had? What the track showed it was is similar to other synthetics and holds the form of those races. But it still told us nothing about how horses that haven't run on it, Curlin for instance, will perform. It didn't tell us if the best horses will win the races or the best synthetic horses will win the races. That's the great unknown and for a lot of bettors, it's too big of one.

I agree!! Everyone is saying Zenyatta crushed her. But HL set fractions of 24 and 48 and didn't even put up a fight.

There is something wrong with that picture......Any G1 quality horse should win with that kind of pace.

[Kasept]

Awesome Gem: Mile (2)
Black Magic Mama: Juvenile Fillies (1)
Casino Drive: Classic (1)
Coronet of a Baron: Juvenile Turf (2)
Dave ’s Revenge: Juvenile Fillies (2)
Dream Empress: Juvenile Fillies (1)
Elusive Bluff: Juvenile (1)
Emmy Darling: Juvenile Fillies Turf (1)
Evita Argentina: Juvenile Fillies (1)
Fairbanks: Classic (2)
First Defence: Sprint (1)
Gallant Son: Juvenile (1)
Goldikova: Mile (1)
Indian Blessing: Filly & Mare Sprint (1)
Lewis Michael: Dirt Mile (1)
Lord Admiral: Dirt Mile (2)
Mast Track: Dirt Mile (2)
Mine That Bird: Juvenile (1)
Precious Kitten: Mile (1)
Pyro: Dirt Mile (2)
Raven ’s Pass: Classic (1)
Rebellion: Dirt Mile (1)
Renda: Juvenile Fillies Turf (1)
Saucey Evening: Juvenile Fillies Turf (1)
Slew ’s Tizzy: Dirt Mile (2)
Spring House: Turf (1)
Ventura: Filly & Mare Sprint (1)
Well Armed: Dirt Mile (1)

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Raven ’s Pass: Classic (1)

LUV IT. Stay outta my mile.

[fpsoxfan]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

You are right... both Zen and Indian Blessing are running on Friday.


That makes Saturday suck even more!

embarassing01vb7.jpg






Oh....What do I do? Play the Breeder's Cup or play fetch..........hmmmm...

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by odbaxter

I need help here. Is it going to play more like Poly and Tapeta (apparent advantage to closers and turf types) or is it going to play more like dirt. Who cares what it is made off? I just want to know how it will play.

Over the first three weeks, frontrunners did not do particularly well on the Pro-Ride.
Last week however, a number of speed horses wired the field.

Thirteen out of the sixteen races there on Wednesday and Thursday are over the main track. The best way to guess at how the track will be playing on Friday and Saturday will be to watch how it plays in those thirteen races.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Linny

Considering the ship, change in climate (when racing in SoCal, FLA) the fact that most Euro's are beyond their best races when they get here etc, I think it's a fine record. Also, while those listed above all ran well in BC races, several, Domedriver, Lashkari, Tikkanen and don't forget Arcangues were not considered the very best in Europe.
As for all Euro's liking soft going, it's a myth. Dylan Thomas was undone by the soft going at Mon. Remember, they almost scratched because he didn't like soft. Daylami did his best in Europe on firmer going and when Euro's go to the Mid-East and Asia they often get rock hard turf and still win. This myth is like the one that holds that all Euro's are routers. Guess what, they've been runing G1 sprints on grass in Europe for ages now! I just wish that some of their sprinters would come here for the BC. I'd have thought the SA course might have suited them, though most as used to to a straightaway sprint.

but i don't think their idea of firm going is what we classify as firm. they all water their tracks when there isn't rain. i know some don't like the softer footing, but their tracks are still rather deep-and far from the firm footing in places such as santa anita.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Keep in mind, on average, I'd guess the BC Turf draws 4-5 Euros and 9-10 Americans, so being >50% is a definitive statistical advantage.
(I guess they're 13-24 now with Red Rocks and English Channel added now... although with the dead heat in '03 I think they'd have to count a win for both)

That being said, they rarely send their top stock. It always seems to be their 2nd tier group, this year no different.

i don't know that you can say they don't send their best-ouija board was certainly one of the best. i think the best who don't run in the arc end up coming-it's a tricky time of year for their horses. i know at least one juvie that was supposed to show ended up not coming since her winter coat came in. too warm for them in cali, and they said that generally you see a bit of a drop in a horses efforts once they get that coat going.

i'm not disputing that on average the euros have better turfers, i just don't think it's this huge dominating thing they've got going as some seem to think. since it's pretty much an exclusive type of racing for them, and turf is secondary here, i'd think it would stand to reason that they would have an edge since it's all they concentrate on. also, it's not as tho we can't breed a good turf horse, they get bred quite often in ky-and invariably end up overseas after being purchased at auction. we export our best and brightest turfers, everyone here focuses on dirt. with good reason i'd say, look at how much emphasis is placed on the classic here, not the turf. it's where the money's at.

[GBBob]

A BC run in mud/slop on dirt or the BC run on a synthetic surface?

And this isn't a biased question....interested in which people would rather handicap, which is a better money making opportunity, and which surface is fairer.

And a dry, dirt track is not an option here.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by GBBob

A BC run in mud/slop on dirt or the BC run on a synthetic surface?

And this isn't a biased question....interested in which people would rather handicap, which is a better money making opportunity, and which surface is fairer.

And a dry, dirt track is not an option here.

This is probably dodging the question but I'll take this years BC over last years, because the turf races should be more form full.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by 3kings

This is probably dodging the question but I'll take this years BC over last years, because the turf races should be more form full.

Understood..and I guess I should have narrowed it to the main track only.

[VOL JACK]

Personally, I would take the mud over the fake turf.
Thanks to Mike Helms' sire ratings I have been doing unusally well on the slop this year.

[Bigsmc]

Neither.

I cut way back on my wagering last year because of the slop, more so because of the bog masquerading as a grass course and I'm cutting all the way back this year.

CD in '10.

[MaTH716]

I think both scenarios make the baby races even harder to play with horses catching synthetic or slop for the first time.

As for handicapping, I would pefer the slop. You would think that most of these horses have some sort of off track lines/form in their pp's. Not to mention their bloodlines too.

[geeker2]

That's a tough question - but I think I prefer a microbrew.

Shouldn't you be packing?

[3kings]

I'll say the poly this year........last year most of the horses had never run on muddy tracks or bad turf. This year many of the horse have been exposed to some sort of synthetic track in training or races.

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by geeker2

That's a tough question - but I think I prefer a microbrew.

Shouldn't you be packing?

Stay on topic Schlitz-boy

[geeker2]

Originally Posted by GBBob

Stay on topic Schlitz-boy

I laughed