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#41
08-04-2024, 02:26 PM
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Best Bet: Race 6 #8 Yougottahavehope 9/2 - I get that De Paz has horrible numbers with these types but I think that might be largely irrelevant today besides maybe boosting the price. This filly is lightning quick out the gate based on the work and I really liked it visually. Expect her to pop out straight to the front and take them a long way, hopefully all the way.
Best Value: Race 8 #4 Clear the Air 6/1 - Not sure why the reluctance to get back to dirt but I think fits as well as any in here if still capable on dirt and the connections should ensure a good price. 
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#43
08-04-2024, 03:12 PM
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#44
08-04-2024, 04:19 PM
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#45
08-04-2024, 04:27 PM
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#46
08-04-2024, 05:08 PM
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#47
08-07-2024, 12:23 PM
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Going to be back with another for today and to update records a little later but wanted to post this one now...
Best Value: Race 3 #6 Principe D'Oro 8/1 - Not sure how good this one ultimately is but I have to give another shot after the ridiculous trip this one had earlier in the meet that I discussed previously on the the thread. Don't mind the cutback and drawing off the rail should help.
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#48
08-07-2024, 02:08 PM
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Best Bet: Race 7 #3 On The Ledge 6/1 -Really liked that last effort when finally dropped and I don't see anything in this field that really scares me off.
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#49
08-08-2024, 02:22 PM
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Bet: $160.00
Returned: $260.80 Struggled with the card today. Best Bet: Race 9 #7 Marco T. 7/2 - Despite the win last out at 6 I think the 5.5 is going to be perfect for her style...Manny will have to time it right and not lose too much ground though. Best Value: Race 9 #8 Ninja Abarrio 8/1 - Not sure I'm convinced this one is really good enough but did finish pretty well considering the wild trip two back. Kind if hung last out but gets an upgrade to Dylan today and seems to fit well enough.
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#50
08-08-2024, 03:17 PM
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With the races coming off the turf ill stick with Ninja Abarrio in the last although I won't claim a lot of confidence.
Race 9 switching to the MTO #9 Bank on Anna - maybe will be overbet as the lone MTO but on Beyers at least there are some faster options so maybe the price will be ok. Has some back races to be tough. Drawing a line through the last and thought the previous two were a little better than they look on paper.
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#51
08-10-2024, 03:09 PM
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Best Bet: Race 11 #4 Dot's Dollar 9/2 - Drawing a line through the last and think the cutback helps. Got an awkward inside trip chasing a fast pace, the run two back should win today.
Best Value: Race 12 #1 Golden Degree - no idea what to expect for a price but assume the other three will take a lot of money so could be OK. Exaggerated victories and not that fast but she's really moving up for Linda and with another step forward can win here, especially if you think Barayes last is as dressed up as I do.
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#52
08-11-2024, 02:09 PM
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Best Bet: Race 10 #7 More Than Looks 7/2 - Just think hes the best horse in here with the most upside to boot. In particularly I think he was much better than Carl Spackler in the Hall of Fame last year. I guess we will see if hes ready but based on the works I watched I think he is and might be the only time to get a price you can stomach if he's as good as I think.
Best Value: Race 5 #9 Charming Jim 8/1 - I know this horse is a real plodder but i thought Castellano gave him a bit of a passive ride in the last and he also lost momentum in the stretch. He seemed to be tiring anyway so I'm not sure it mattered that much but I wanted to give him a chance to turn the tables on Judge Rules today. I also might be making up a bit of a story in my head but I don't think he really likes the dirt and ran so poorly in the two dirt races off the freshening I don't think he got much out of those...so I'm viewing today as almost a second off the layoff where I'm hoping hell be more fit late and improve, he'll obviously need to.
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#53
08-14-2024, 01:55 PM
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Best Bet: Race 5 #6 Awesome Czech 5/2
Best Value: Race 7 #8 Backed by Gold 8/1
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#54
08-14-2024, 05:20 PM
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Ninja Abarrio and Bank on Anna were pretty flat Thursday.
Dots Dollar and Golden Degree were awful Saturday. Charming Jim I thought was tons the best but was only good enough for third at 14/1. More Than Looks proved no match for Carl Spackler paying 3.80 to place. Awesome Czech was a generous 7/2 today proving best and paying 9.70/4.50 Backed by Gold got a perfect ride by Romero paying 23/10.20 Bet: $192.00 Returned: $312.00
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#55
08-15-2024, 02:40 PM
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Best Bet Race 10 #4 Scrictly Taboo 6/1 - Not a flashy sort but I think can step up and beat these. I thought the race two back was very impressive and last time just did what was needed very professionally. Not exactly scared of anyone in here even though Risk Threshold was visually impressive last out...hoping that actually leads to that one being overbet.
Best Value: Race 9 #8 Charles J 8/1 - Despite what the beyers indicate I think this ones route was much stronger than the two sprints its sandwiched between...within the context of that race I thought ran much better than Wild Dancer and hopefully offers some value for the dangerous Joseph Lee/Frankie combo. Good luck
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#56
08-16-2024, 03:19 PM
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Will make up for cancellations at some point.
Best Bet: Race 8: #8 Caroline Street Best Value Race 10 #4 Wrigelyville
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#57
08-17-2024, 01:54 PM
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Best Bet: Race 10 #4 Just Basking 5/1 - Tricky race the Alabama came up this year. Obviously Candied can win but I wanted to beat her. I was originally leaning toward Miss Justify but I can't shake the feeling she might not get the added ground. This one certainly should, just a matter of if she classes up to these.
Best Value: Race 9 #2 Grayosh 8/1 - Not sure she's really good enough to beat She Feels Pretty or the Appleby horse everyone seems to be against (don't love her but don't totally get it either, she's a little scary to me)...but I have to give her another shot after the last where I thought she was much the best just forced to move a little early and wide. I'm hoping given the draw that Prat will be a little more aggressive early getting a little more forward while saving all the ground. I still think she's a little better than she looks on paper and might be still improving.
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#58
08-17-2024, 05:09 PM
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Best handicapper around
Dude thank your efforts.
I follow a lot of guys looking for value. You are the best and I thank you
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#59
08-18-2024, 03:48 PM
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^Thanks. Glad you're finding it insightful.
Three pack today. Race 9: #7 Playingwithmatches 8/1- I think he needed that last and will love the seven furlongs today. Seems to be spotted to win today. Hopefully Lezcano can work out the right kind of trip in a tricky field with a murky pace scenario to me. Race 10 #2 Enfuega 4/1 - Two back was so impressive to me. Talk about doing all the dirty work...i really thought she was sitting on a big move forward off that and then for some reason they tried the turf. Hoping that is an easy cross off and it actually gets us a little value in here today. Not sure though because she still feels pretty obvious with IMO all the upside of these in here today. Race 11 #16 Colloquy 5/1 - Hoping Irad off gets some value here because he really got this horse beat moving far too early in the last after completely missing the break. I do think this is stretching the distance limits here but if Junior can get him to break better today and time his move right, something I think hes usually really good at with these types, think he can get the money in here today. Good luck
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#60
08-19-2024, 08:13 AM
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Thursdays runners scratched.
Caroline Street was terrible Friday. I watched the replay multiple times and still not sure if Wrigleyville wouldve been a winner but certainly took the worst of it in the stretch. Saturday - would've been interesting if Landeros opted not to swing Just Basking into the parking lot, with that said he saved ground every step and she had a perfect setup, ultimately lacked a potent enough late kick with dead aim. Grayosh was nice, been following this one closely a while now and good to get some vindication, even better was that Flavien did exactly what I was hoping and rode a masterful race which made the difference. Paid 17.60/5.10 Playingwithmatches was a bad pick yesterday. Overthought that race as my initial cap was to single Super Chief, who was on my watch list from a while back off a series of incredibly bad rides from Herrera. Really disappointed in Enfuega yesterday. I was confident she would handle that field relatively easy, was a generous price and the favorite was as phony as I thought...somehow Enfuega was worse. Junior got Colloquy out the gate and timed his move perfectly, perhaps a touch overconfident but still proved best at a generous 5/1 paying 13.80/6.40. Bet: $224.00 Returned: $354.90
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