Brisbet take on Bernie

[Downthestretch55]

Originally Posted by sumitas

Bernie has run in soft spots.

I agree with you there, Sumitas.
And, I'll add my two cents for the sheet and numbers guys. Horses change from day to day.
To me, nothing beats looking at them on the walking path and in the paddock.
If you look at previous races, the thing I look at is "motion", not splits.
Bern has one of the nicest strides I've seen.
Soft spots...sure. Look at all the ones that have ducked him.
As far as betting...geesh. Much better values in lots of other races imho.
I'll enjoy. The one I think will give him a run is Invasor.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I happen to agree with Jerry on this point ( and with you on yours )....but how could he possibly be considered a " neutral observer " in this discussion?

Utmost respect for JB, but why should he worry himself with the value of somebody else's pace figures when he doesn't believe in pace as a relevant factor in handicapping.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I do want to say that I agree with the other part of your post but this statement is completely false. " value " in wagering is totally unrelated to whether or not you win or lose. As the simplest example, if you give me 2-1 on heads coming up in a coin flip, even if it's tails, I made a value bet. The point of " value " is that, assuming you truly have it, over time you WILL make money and individual events are irrelevent.

Point taken and I agree with what you are saying. That was poorly stated on my part.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Utmost respect for JB, but why should he worry himself with the value of somebody else's pace figures when he doesn't believe in pace as a relevant factor in handicapping.

He wasn't referring to their pace figures. He was referring to their final number as compared to Beyer numbers.