5/6 (CD): Triple Crown Tracker

[Kasept]

5/6 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY

1. Forte 190 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
2. Practical Move 160 (Yakteen/Vazquez)
3. Angel of Empire 154 (Cox/Prat)
4. Tapit Trice 150 (Pletcher/Saez)
5. Two Phil’s 123 (Rivelli/Loveberry)
6. Lord Miles 105 (Joseph/P. Lopez)
7. Derma Sotogake-JPN 100 (Otonashi/Lemaire)
8. Kingsbarns 100 (Pletcher/J. Ortiz (tent.))
9. Raise Cain 64 (Colebrook/Corrales/Machado)
10. Rocket Can 60 (Mott/Alvarado)

11. Hit Show 60 (Cox/Franco)
12. Confidence Game 57 (Desormeaux/Graham)
13. Verifying 54 (Cox/Gaffalione)
14. Sun Thunder 54 (McPeek/B. Hernandez)
15. Mage 50 (Delgado/Castellano)
16. Disarm 46 (Asmussen/Rosario)
17. Reincarnate 45 (Yakteen/Velazquez)
18. Jace’s Road 45 (Cox/Geroux)
19. Skinner 45 (Shirreffs/J. Hernandez)
20. Continuar-JPN (Yahagi/Sakai) JPN Auto-bid
-----------------------------------------------------------
22. Cyclone Mischief 45 (Romans/TBA)
23. Major Dude 40 (Pletcher/I. Ortiz)
24. Mandarin Hero 40 (Fujita/Kimura)
25. King Russell 40 (Moquett/Bejarano)

[moses]

My longshot futures bet on Jace’s Road remains alive for now.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

My longshot futures bet on Jace’s Road remains alive for now.

Kind of like Ted Williams' frozen head...

[moses]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Kind of like Ted Williams' frozen head...

I’ve got the same shot of winning as Lloyd Christmas sleeping with Mary Swanson.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ve got the same shot of winning as Lloyd Christmas sleeping with Mary Swanson.

Stranger things have happened.

Mine That Bird winning was like Lloyd and Harry making it to Aspen on "The Hog"...

[Kasept]

Hall of Famer Javier Castellano ~ he of 6 Travers, 2 Preaknesses & 12 Breeder's Cup wins but with a strangely dismal Derby record ~ lands Mage..

[Kasept]

Having been named on Raise Cain last week, the Castellano/Mage move brings into question whether Ben Colebrook is running..

If not, add Skinner to the lineup..

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Having been named on Raise Cain last week, the Castellano/Mage move brings into question whether Ben Colebrook is running.. If not, add Skinner to the lineup..

Colebrook tells Dave Grening they are still planning on running.. Luan Machado being mentioned as possible rider.

[Kasept]

The Pace Cast from today's discussion with Ty..

[RolloTomasi]

With a decided lack of true front-running speed, it seems like most of this is debatable.

Jace's Road is listed as a front-runner yet he decidedly took back behind Kingsbarn in the Louisiana Derby. The only time he set the pace was in a slowly run race.

Forte usually breaks well and settles midfield. He had a terrible post in the FL Derby & was shuffled back on the first turn in the Breeder's Futurity. Don't see him trailing.

Rocket Can has always been in a stalking position early.

Confidence Game actually wired a field that included Rocket Can. He's been forwardly placed all year and was floated out not once but twice while trying to show speed by listed presser Verifying on the first turn in the quickly run Rebel. He also skipped the final round of preps so should be fresh stretching out to 10 furlongs from 8.5f.

Continuar has faced Derma Sotogake three times now; he has in front of DS early in a Japanese race, alongside him in Saudi Arabia, and less than 2 lengths away in Dubai.

Hit Show is never too far away early. However, he was used quite a bit in the Wood from the outside post; the Withers is probably a truer line where he is likely to be just behind the 2nd flight without being completely out of it.

Who knows what to make of Wild On Ice, but the horse was less than 2 lengths away of a :45+ half last time and dueled through a :44 flat half in his 2nd start. In both the 2 races where he failed to establish early position he was bumped at the start.

Mage is another head scratcher. He missed the break in the FL Derby yet ran the race of his life. That off-the-pace style might serve him best at CD as opposed to reverting to a stalking/pressing trip. His turn off foot is a huge weapon in a race like this. Will he have it if he is used early?

Finally, I would guess given Baffert's penchant for stealing big races on the front end, that Reincarnate will attempt to go straight to the front a la Medina Spirit, who reverted back to a front-running style to great--if only short term--effect after a couple of stalking trips in his prep races.

[Kasept]

Thx Rollo! Will add the Thoro-Graph opening quarter look and Timeform Pace Projector to get their interpretations too..

[Kasept]

[Kasept]

[moses]

Is there anywhere you can access early PPs of likely contenders? I feel like Brisnet used to do this but haven’t seen anything this year.

[tywizard]

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload..._Derby_PPs.pdf

[moses]

Originally Posted by tywizard

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload..._Derby_PPs.pdf

Thanks!

[Kasept]

Wild on Ice ankle injury suffered out of workout Thursday morning gets Skinner into the Derby field..

[Kasept]

[cal828]

Hard to know how fast Derma Sotogake is since you don't get any pace figures and I am not particularly good at converting metric, but my question is, in a race which doesn't appear to have a lot of horses that want to set the pace, why would his connections not send him?

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wild on Ice ankle injury suffered out of workout Thursday morning gets Skinner into the Derby field..

https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/st...07910047154176

Wild On Ice euthanized. RIP.