6/9 (BEL): 150th Belmont Stakes Day

[moses]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I don't know how it's going to play out Saturday,but most of the Cali runners certainly belong.
The money's good,the talent is there...….and come on Rollo,you just can't leave them sitting in the barn.
And don't forget,California horses have been shipping East and crushing for quite a few years...…...why shouldn't the owners take a shot ?

Dark Vader: Big improve in last,horse he beat just won the Snow Chief on Saturday...…..had a sneaky uncomfortable trip @ Sunland.
The Easy Goer field is light...……really light.

Moonshine Memories: Double Grade 1 winner,stuck in the quicksand in her BC race.
She needed her last,one turn suits her.
Spectator: Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed...…...the horse she just ran into in the SA Oaks is a stone cold runner.

Stormy Liberal: Last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner...…...just ran second in the toughest turf sprint in the world.
He's the horse to beat,why wouldn't he be here ?

Beautiful Shot: Just ran second,beaten 3/4's of a length to the morning line favorite(Brisnet ?)……….his sprints are all solid.
Barn is outstanding on the ship with price horses.

Ransom The Moon: Gr.1 winner(beating last years BC Sprint Champ) + Gr.2 also...……..was a router in Canada(broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the grass).
Bolt d'Oro: Dual Gr.1 winner,loaded with talent...….only bad race was the Derby over a surface he didn't handle.
A one turn mile is right in his wheelhouse.

Fashion Business/Multiplier: I don't like So Cal grass routers heading East,I'll give you this one.

The Easy Goer looks like a nice spot for High North. Though I’m willing to throw the Pat Day Mile out for Mask since it was a sloppy track. Not sure I quite understand the 3-1 morning line for Rugbyman but I’m ok if people put money on him. I don’t think he’ll win.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by moses

The Easy Goer looks like a nice spot for High North. Though I’m willing to throw the Pat Day Mile out for Mask since it was a sloppy track. Not sure I quite understand the 3-1 morning line for Rugbyman but I’m ok if people put money on him. I don’t think he’ll win.

Agree that Mask did not like the mud. I was looking for 5-1 not 5-2 though.

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by moses

The Easy Goer looks like a nice spot for High North. Though I’m willing to throw the Pat Day Mile out for Mask since it was a sloppy track. Not sure I quite understand the 3-1 morning line for Rugbyman but I’m ok if people put money on him. I don’t think he’ll win.

Did you see Rugymans maiden win? What is there to not understand?

[knickslions2]

Easy Goer is a nice race and looks to have a solid pace. Looking at Shugs horse to be right off leaders and hopefully sitting on a big one. High North is a toss for me in this one. feel 4 or 5 others much faster

[moses]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Did you see Rugymans maiden win? What is there to not understand?

The competition there leaves a lot to be desired and I don’t think he’ll have his way with proven winners. But hey, I could be wrong.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I don't know how it's going to play out Saturday,but most of the Cali runners certainly belong.

Yeah, the ones trained by Bob Baffert. Judging by the morning line, most of the others should have stayed home.

The money's good,the talent is there...….and come on Rollo,you just can't leave them sitting in the barn.

That's the sad part because that's exactly what they will be doing in the next two weeks when Santa Anita tries to card several stakes that would have featured this very same horses.

And don't forget,California horses have been shipping East and crushing for quite a few years...…...why shouldn't the owners take a shot ?

Well Eurton, D'Amato, and Callaghan have not been crushing back East, that's for sure.

Dark Vader: Big improve in last,horse he beat just won the Snow Chief on Saturday...…..had a sneaky uncomfortable trip @ Sunland.
The Easy Goer field is light...……really light.

Not light enough. Dark Vader is co-5th choice on the ML. He'd be even higher if the connections of Just Whistle opted for the this race instead of an allowance races later on the card.

Dark Vader "improved" because he dropped in class. He went from running over his head in graded stakes company to running in a first condition allowance where he belonged after taking 5 shots to break his maiden.

Take The One O One--who is the reason that Andy Beyer opted to lower the hefty Beyer earned by Bolt D'Oro in last year's Frontrunner--did win his last start, but it was on turf against his fellow Cal-breds.

Dark Vader should have waited for the Affirmed back home.

Moonshine Memories: Double Grade 1 winner,stuck in the quicksand in her BC race.
She needed her last,one turn suits her.

Small, weak fields suit her. She showed absolutely no progression from 2 to 3 in her comeback. Certainly not enough to warrant entry into one of the toughest 3yo filly stakes to date. Santa Anita will be running the Summertime Oaks in less than 2 weeks over the same track and distance she won one of her Grade 1s last year.

Spectator: Grade 2 winner/Grade 1 placed...…...the horse she just ran into in the SA Oaks is a stone cold runner.

The stone cold runner (Midnight Bisou) got pummeled by the morning line favorite for the Acorn. Spectator was obliterated by Moonshine Memories last year and thus is in an even more tenuous position among the the top 3yo fillies than that rival. The Summertime Oaks would have made much more sense for her as well.

I guess we can watch them battle it out down the stretch (probably for 5th about 10 lengths behind the top finishers) so that we have a better gauge of which one will win the listed Torrey Pines at Del Mar.

Stormy Liberal: Last years Breeders Cup Turf Sprint winner...…...just ran second in the toughest turf sprint in the world.
He's the horse to beat,why wouldn't he be here ?

Stormy Liberal certainly has the credentials to be here. The problem is that he's been all over the world and back since the Breeder's Cup. Miller campaigned him hard last year, too (sans the international forays), and had to give him 5 months off after getting blitzed in this same race.

Beautiful Shot: Just ran second,beaten 3/4's of a length to the morning line favorite(Brisnet ?)……….his sprints are all solid.
Barn is outstanding on the ship with price horses.

Whatever magic was performed by the barn with its other horses didn't rub off on this one at either Aqueduct or Oaklawn. I guess there's not much else to shoot for back home, although I hear the Affirmed is coming up awful light if they want to give him one more try around two turns. Might put him in the frame for the Los Alamitos Derby, too.

Ransom The Moon: Gr.1 winner(beating last years BC Sprint Champ) + Gr.2 also...……..was a router in Canada(broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the grass).

A router in Canada? Yeah, he broke his maiden going 9 furlongs on the turf in something like his 7th career start. He then spent the following year toiling in conditioned allowance races before being reformed as a sprinter to great success in 2017. Why disrupt a good thing? Something tells me they are taking a flyer on the Met Mile's dubious reputation as a "stallion making" race.

Too bad, because the horse made much more sense in the True North the day before...or even the upcoming San Carlos at Santa Anita where he's done some of his best running.

By the way, I think NYRA might have to rethink carding the True North and the Bed O'Roses the same weekend as the Met Mile and the Ogden Phipps, as the cross-entries and flip-flops are wreaking a bit of havoc. It's a little bit like the situation produced by having a BC Sprint, a BC Dirt Mile, and a BC Classic all on the same weekend.

Bolt d'Oro: Dual Gr.1 winner,loaded with talent...….only bad race was the Derby over a surface he didn't handle.
A one turn mile is right in his wheelhouse.

Any horse that can hit the 1/2 in :45 and change is handling the surface fine. The problem was Espinoza took the colt out of his comfort zone and ruined him for the last part of the race. Now you have to have faith that the colt doesn't have any residual affects from that horrendous effort. It also doesn't instill confidence that the colt first was going to be rested for another herculean task in the Pacific Classic, then was rerouted to Woody Stephens, then on the fence for the Preakness, and now has settled on the Met Mile. Personally, I think the Woody Stephens would have been the better spot to get back in form, but it's kind of a motley crew for the Met with more to gain from a good effort.

Fashion Business/Multiplier: I don't like So Cal grass routers heading East,I'll give you this one.

I just hope they'll still be able to fill a conditioned allowance race on the turf at Santa Anita in the next few weeks despite the absence of these two.

[taxicab]

@ Rollo:
Really ?
All of those horses you don't like on Saturday should of stayed home ?
Because of the morning line ?
That's right...….a horse lined over 5-1 has never,ever won any race in history.
And why run at Belmont when you could run at Santa Anita ?
Really ?

So remind me...….how have Calif. horses done on the Eastern ship the last 5 years or so ?

Dark Vader: Yeah...…..I'm sure Peter Eurton is shaking in his boots at that sterling 0 for 8 record in graded stakes company the rest of the Easy Goer field can boast of(and yes,I'm aware the EG isn't a graded stake...….just pointing out there are no world beaters in the race).
Moonshine Memories: Coolmore must be devastated that their 650k Malibu Moon filly was 2 for 3 in Grade 1's last year...…...and went off favored in the BC Juvy Filly...…….yeah,she's a real slug alright.
And do you really think they care if they won a 75k prep off of a 6 month layoff ?
Perhaps they had the Grade 1 Acorn in mind ?
And remind me...……..how many bad races has Spectator run ?
Yeah.....I think Peter Miller knows a little bit more about how his Breeders Cup winner is doing than you do.
BTW......400k turf sprints don't come around every day.
And remind me...….how's Peter Miller done shipping his top sprinters back East recently ?
Beautiful Shot...….Like I said,Beautiful Shot just ran 2nd beaten 3/4's in the Gr. 3 Laz Barrera to Saturdays morning line favorite...…….at the Woody Stephens 7 furlong distance...…..so 3/4's of a length to the race chalk means the horse has no chance ?
I think the barns success with Texas Red shows it knows where to run its stock at a number...…..and Exaggerator on the East Coast ship speaks well of the barns ability to travel.
Ransom The Moon ran 7 times in Canada,his shortest race was 1 1/16...….I didn't say he was sprinting in Canada.
Sired by Malibu Moon out of a Red Ransom mare,a one turn mile should be in his realm...…..trainer D'Amato seems to think so.
The Bolt...….Runner up in the 2yo Eclipse voting last year,why not run him in the Met with a weight break.
He's the 4-1 second choice on the line...….and you think the Woody Stephens is where he belongs ?
I'll tell ya Rollo.....every single horse you don't like can get beaten Saturday.....I understand that.
But they have all earned their right to be there.
Good luck wagering Saturday Rollo,hope you knock em dead.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by freddymo

This doesn't end well for you

Care to elaborate Freddy ?

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Care to elaborate Freddy ?

See Rollo's response above

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Rollo:
Really ?
All of those horses you don't like on Saturday should of stayed home ?
Because of the morning line ?
That's right...….a horse lined over 5-1 has never,ever won any race in history.

The morning line was a bit of hyperbole and certainly not the crux of my argument

And why run at Belmont when you could run at Santa Anita ?
Really ?

You said they would be staying in the barn if they didn't run at Belmont, I was simply pointing out there were races at home that fit better.

So remind me...….how have Calif. horses done on the Eastern ship the last 5 years or so ?

Why go back 5 years to survey the records of different trainers than the ones we are dealing with here. Again, Eurton, D'Amato, and Callaghan have not done that well in the past year.

And remind me...……..how many bad races has Spectator run ?

A better question is how many fast races has Spectator run?

I'll tell ya Rollo.....every single horse you don't like can get beaten Saturday.....I understand that.
But they have all earned their right to be there.

It's not about the "right" to be there. It's all about current form. Personally, I'm not seeing it.

[taxicab]

@ Rollo:

Races @ SA:
Affirmed 100k/Easy Goer 150k.
Summertime Oaks 200k/Acorn 700k.
Silent Lure 75k/Jaipur 400k.
Affirmed 100k/Woody Stephens 400k(at a much better distance for Beautiful Shot).
Bolt d'Oro: Met Mile 1.2 mil...…..nothing in So Cal for him.
San Carlos 250k/Met Mile 1.2 mil.
The connections know their stock inside & out......….they chose the right races.

Eurton/D'Amato/Callaghan are outstanding trainers.
Stats with shippers:
Eurton/D'Amato 16%.
Callaghan 22%.
They've won Breeders Cup races,they've won Gr.1's.
All three have won in NY before.

Spectator has run races fast enough to win a Gr.2/place in a Gr.1.

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by freddymo

See Rollo's response above

Thanks for the clarification.
I never know what you're talking about.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by taxicab

Thanks for the clarification.
I never know what you're talking about.

That makes 2 of us lol

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by taxicab

@ Rollo:

Races @ SA:
Affirmed 100k/Easy Goer 150k.
Summertime Oaks 200k/Acorn 700k.
Silent Lure 75k/Jaipur 400k.
Affirmed 100k/Woody Stephens 400k(at a much better distance for Beautiful Shot).
Bolt d'Oro: Met Mile 1.2 mil...…..nothing in So Cal for him.
San Carlos 250k/Met Mile 1.2 mil.
The connections know their stock inside & out......….they chose the right races.

My main argument is that the majority of the CA horses (minus Baffert) on the Saturday card are not "ready for prime time", so while I can understand the attraction of purses 3-4 times those of the SA races, at the same time the purpose is to actually get decent chunks of the purse so you need a horse that will be competitive on the win end.

The Siren Lure would have been a great return spot for those turf sprinters returning from Dubai considering the notable defeats of other horses returning from there. But I agree with you that there aren't many high dollar races for that division, so I shouldn't lump Miller into the category of the others. I just think there's a significant chance the horse(s) don't show up.

Eurton/D'Amato/Callaghan are outstanding trainers.
Stats with shippers:
Eurton/D'Amato 16%.
Callaghan 22%.
They've won Breeders Cup races,they've won Gr.1's.
All three have won in NY before.

Not sure what the source is of those numbers, but D'Amato has only run a maiden breaker in the Wood at long odds (that got drowned) this year. Eurton ran a nice maiden debut winner in a graded stakes at Keeneland, got beat, then pulled up in her next race. That sort of over-aggressive management fries horses (see Pavel's lackluster career to this point) where they either disappear, fail to progress, or get dumped. He also had Core Beliefs fail as the favorite in the Peter Pan.

Meanwhile, Callaghan has run Runaway, Encumbered, American Gal, and a few more in big stakes and watched them run off the board. American Gal did win her second start on the road and was an established horse, but some of the others were curious to say the least. I guess I should be happy he didn't start Moonshine Memories in the Ashland off the bench.

Spectator has run races fast enough to win a Gr.2/place in a Gr.1.

Speed figure wise, there has been only slight progression from 2 to 3. Several in the Acorn have speed figures well ahead of her. She is also suspect at distances beyond 6.5 furlongs, not having come closer than 3 or 4 lengths in her two tries.

[taxicab]

I used Brisnet trainer stats,it was a large sample size so I think they went back a few years.
Simon Callaghan had two heavily bet stakes flops the last two days...……..I'll be curious how Moonshine Memories does Saturday.
For some reason I have it in my head Monomoy Girl is going to miss in the Acorn...….betting against Brad Cox is usually asking for trouble,dude seems to never fail.

[RolloTomasi]

per twitter:

morning line favorite Kanthaka scratched out of the Woody Stephens.