Derby field, where they should go, Preakness possibles

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by justindew

Deal.

Thanks for the bet. It looks like we will get a full field of 14 for the Preakness. There will then be lots of others waiting in the wings for a shot at Belmont.

We don't know what track conditions will be, what racing luck he will have, even if he can stay healthy until June. There is a reason we have not had a Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Animal Kingdom may turn out to be the second coming of Affirmed. But since the horse has only five lifetime starts and will now make three starts in five weeks, I like my chances.


Paul

[Dunbar]

The Greek is offering 6.9-1 that there will be a TC:

Will there be a 2011 Triple Crown winner
4001 Yes +690
4002 No -1010

5Dimes is offering 3.25-1 on Animal Kingdom winning the Preakness:

Sat 5/21 101 Animal Kingdom wins Preakness +325
6:30PM 102 Field wins Preakness

--Dunbar

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

The Greek is offering 6.9-1 that there will be a TC:

Will there be a 2011 Triple Crown winner
4001 Yes +690
4002 No -1010

5Dimes is offering 3.25-1 on Animal Kingdom winning the Preakness:

Sat 5/21 101 Animal Kingdom wins Preakness +325
6:30PM 102 Field wins Preakness

--Dunbar

I am a certified moron.

[justindew]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Thanks for the bet. It looks like we will get a full field of 14 for the Preakness. There will then be lots of others waiting in the wings for a shot at Belmont.

We don't know what track conditions will be, what racing luck he will have, even if he can stay healthy until June. There is a reason we have not had a Triple Crown winner since 1978.

Animal Kingdom may turn out to be the second coming of Affirmed. But since the horse has only five lifetime starts and will now make three starts in five weeks, I like my chances.


Paul

I made a stupid bet, which I think I will win.

[slotdirt]

What I really want to know is how someone actually moved a horse up off Catalano?

[herkhorse]

put down the mint juleps

[_ed_]

I definitely think AK is good enough to beat this bunch two more times. My main question is the time between races. I know that's not particularly insightful, and it's probably stating the obvious.

But he had six weeks between the Spiral and the Derby, and now he has just two weeks before the Preakness. So I'm not totally sure he'll be back at his peak and have that same turn of foot at Pimlico.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by justindew

I am a certified moron.

After tossing a bunch of unwarranted vitriol my way for merely opining the obvious, he now admits that which cannot be denied.

[philcski]

Courier Journal with a good list of Preakness possibles.
http://www.courier-journal.com/inter...eakness-Stakes

[Merlinsky]

http://www.thoroughbredtimes.com/rac...l-kingdom.aspx

Gotta love (probably unnecessary) drama.

[parsixfarms]

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

I've been thinking that exact thing. Great comment.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I realize that the conventional wisdom seems to be that a faster pace in the Preakness will only help Animal Kingdom's chances. With the slow pace in the Derby, the race was run like a turf race. That may explain why so many of the turf/synthetic horses seemed to run well on Saturday. If horses like Flashpoint and Dance City join the fray in Baltimore, the pace is almost assured to be much faster, and I'm not sure that a faster pace necessarily helps Animal Kingdom's chances in the Preakness.

I see your point but disagree. One thing that Animal Kingdom always had going for him, even before we found out he'd handle dirt, is that he's very handy. He has won from a stalking position and now won from well off the pace in the two biggest races of his life.

The issue that he would run into in a fast paced race is if JV asks him to stay too close because he's uncomfortable about being too far back. I don't really see that happening because he seems to be the type of horse that can almost be placed anywhere.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm sorry, now horses handle a surface because of the ( theoretical ) dynamics of a race? OK.....good luck with that one.

Just an aside....this Derby did NOT have a slow pace. It had a pace that was slow for the KY Derby, which usually has a wicked pace, but it was not on the slow side of par. It was a fairly run race and the best horse won.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm sorry, now horses handle a surface because of the ( theoretical ) dynamics of a race? OK.....good luck with that one.

Just an aside....this Derby did NOT have a slow pace. It had a pace that was slow for the KY Derby, which usually has a wicked pace, but it was not on the slow side of par. It was a fairly run race and the best horse won.

It came back below par on the Moss figures, but I agree with you. Race dynamics didn't seem to affect anyone besides maybe Dialed In.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

It came back below par on the Moss figures, but I agree with you. Race dynamics didn't seem to affect anyone besides maybe Dialed In.

There is something VERY strange about the fractions in the routes, at least this weekend, at Churchill.

[hockey2315]

Ya I noticed that too. . .

[Kasept]

PREAKNESS FIELD

Committed:

1. Animal Kingdom
2. Dialed In
3. Shackleford
4. Astrology
5. Concealed Idenity
6. Dance City
7. Flashpoint
8. King Congie
9. Prime Cut
10. Norman Asbjornson
11. Sway Away


Possible

Mr. Commons
Santiva
Saratoga Red


Doubtful

Nehro
Midnight Interlude
The Factor
Mucho Macho Man

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

put down the mint juleps

I tried one one time.... Talk about disgusting... blech!

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I see your point but disagree. One thing that Animal Kingdom always had going for him, even before we found out he'd handle dirt, is that he's very handy. He has won from a stalking position and now won from well off the pace in the two biggest races of his life.

The issue that he would run into in a fast paced race is if JV asks him to stay too close because he's uncomfortable about being too far back. I don't really see that happening because he seems to be the type of horse that can almost be placed anywhere.

I agree with your assessment of some of Animal Kingdom's attributes. (I've always liked him, and he was one of the horses that I used on Saturday.) We don't know how he'll react to being in a fast-paced dirt race. Anyone taking a short price on him in the Preakness will be asking him to do something that he has not done before.