5/5 (CD): 138th Kentucky Derby (G1), 5 Undercard Stakes - Page 3

my miss storm cat · #41 05-03-2012, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

11th (6:24) Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1)

7 7 Rousing Sermon Lezcano J Hollendorfer Jerry 126 LA 50-1

It's probably not a good sign that my top two are both at 50/1 in the morning line (Liaison is my other but that post position...)...

I'm not using Bode anywhere and although I really do like Gemologist have to use him along with Hansen, I'll Have Another, Union Rags and Went the Day Well underneath.

I lost Prospective, Sabrecat and Daddy Nose Best narrowing it down and Went the Day Well will be the next to cut if need be.

I am still using Liaison and in the top spot (in a couople of plays) but am feeling more confident about RS now that post postions have been drawn.

Calzone Lord · #42 05-03-2012, 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

I just pray there is not another Aikenite on the card to spoil all my pick 3 and 4 tickets this year.....

Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.

MaTH716 · #43 05-03-2012, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.

Just thinking of that race makes me nauseous.

pointman · #44 05-03-2012, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Romans was my daddy on the two big days at CD last year.

Sassy Image spoiled an otherwise lucky day for me in the '11 Derby.

Court Vision's win in the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile spoiled the fact that I had shrewdly spent a few hundred dollars keying Gio Point and Goldikova underneath in superfectas and spreading with ALL's in the other slots, except thorwing out only Court Vision entirely on the win end.

It amazes me how many times I get beat by an impossible horse when I do that.

Calzone Lord · #45 05-03-2012, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Just thinking of that race makes me nauseous.

Same probably goes for Rick Dutrow Jr. and IEAH

tector · #46 05-03-2012, 04:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

If anyone is interested, my Kentucky Derby column and picks can be found at the following link:

http://www.goerie.com/article/201205...-has-red-flags

I am boxing your picks and Serling's in a .10 super--I will be farting through silk by Saturday night.

Ignore DrugS at your peril, people.

Calzone Lord · #47 05-03-2012, 04:52 PM

I'm not sure you'll be able to get down on a 10-cent superfecta in the Derby.

I think the minimum is $1 all day long.

I may follow your lead and bring a jar of chocolate covered nuts to the track with me. It's going to be a long day Saturday.

tector · #48 05-03-2012, 05:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I'm not sure you'll be able to get down on a 10-cent superfecta in the Derby.

I think the minimum is $1 all day long.

I may follow your lead and bring a jar of chocolate covered nuts to the track with me. It's going to be a long day Saturday.

Then I will do a $1 Matt box tri. He liked to eat nuts, too.

ateamstupid · #49 05-03-2012, 05:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by outofthebox

I just pray there is not another Aikenite on the card to spoil all my pick 3 and 4 tickets this year.....

Seconded. Pretty much everyone I know had Apriority but not Aikenite.

XIIPointStables · #50 05-03-2012, 06:02 PM

Good luck everybody....

Is there any place to watch the works from the week online?

the Works was a staple for me, but seems they bailed on it. Thanks.

tywizard · #51 05-03-2012, 06:32 PM

I can't get PPs from XB yet....Need to look at the Woodford for tomorrow's pick 3. Is there a link by chance?

jwkniska · #52 05-03-2012, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard

I can't get PPs from XB yet....Need to look at the Woodford for tomorrow's pick 3. Is there a link by chance?

Here ya go. http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html

you can page down and get all the races he's got anything entered in.

Danzig · #53 05-03-2012, 07:14 PM

doug, didn't see anything negative in your comments on gemologist. why is he not one of the top four for you?

Calzone Lord · #54 05-03-2012, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

doug, didn't see anything negative in your comments on gemologist. why is he not one of the top four for you?

I basically just prefer other horses a little more.

Pletcher horses always run gangbusters at the start of the new calender year ... they normally peak within the first 3 starts of the season -- and often have peaked by the second start.

Gemologist is a nice horse -- and I like that he's only had 2 races this year -- but he will need further improvment and from a bettting value standpoint...this is the time of the year when it's becoming safest to play against Pletcher horses.

Danzig · #55 05-03-2012, 09:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I basically just prefer other horses a little more.

Pletcher horses always run gangbusters at the start of the new calender year ... they normally peak within the first 3 starts of the season -- and often have peaked by the second start.

Gemologist is a nice horse -- and I like that he's only had 2 races this year -- but he will need further improvment and from a bettting value standpoint...this is the time of the year when it's becoming safest to play against Pletcher horses.

that is my only knock on the horse. but that's a pretty big knock i think. thanks.

hockey2315 · #56 05-03-2012, 10:35 PM

A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html

declansharbor · #57 05-03-2012, 10:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html

Read the Oaks write-up earlier. Good stuff and good luck at the "windows" this wkend.

slotdirt · #58 05-04-2012, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

A la Drugs, if anyone's interested, Derby analysis here: http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...eat-sheet.html

and here (with undercard): http://thetdnblog.blogspot.com/2012/...-analysis.html

Respect the pick, and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it. Takes some nads to go out on a limb on a 50-1 shot.

MaTH716 · #59 05-04-2012, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Respect the pick, and you seem to have put a lot of thought into it. Takes some nads to go out on a limb on a 50-1 shot.

Good stuff Bri, good luck!

slotdirt · #60 05-04-2012, 08:49 AM

I'm in the Done Talking camp as well. I still believe that this race is going to set up for an off-the-pace type, and as hockey noted in his TDN comments, the horse has the right running style and experience navigating a large field to thrive in that kind of race. The question will be whether he's the right off-the-pace type.