Derby Trail/Triple Crown Notebook

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I get all that. But including Shared Belief as an individual entry amongst their 23 betting interests in the last pool may have led some to believe that Churchill received good information that the connections had the best intentions to go the Derby. I didn't bet him, so I don't really care. Just think it was a little disingenuous including him as an individual entry. He should have been included in the "all others".

and i have no doubt barring the hoof issue, he would have been a derby entrant. there's too much attention being paid to the trainers' comments now that the horse is no longer a potential starter.
of course key horses, especially the champ 2 yo, will be a separate betting interest as long as they're a potential starter.
sorry that i don't share the outrage. i just don't see a reason believe there's nefarious behavior here. all 23 individual entrants could end up out of the race. then what? will future bettors be saying there shouldn't be a future bet at all?

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and i have no doubt barring the hoof issue, he would have been a derby entrant. there's too much attention being paid to the trainers' comments now that the horse is no longer a potential starter.
of course key horses, especially the champ 2 yo, will be a separate betting interest as long as they're a potential starter.
sorry that i don't share the outrage. i just don't see a reason believe there's nefarious behavior here. all 23 individual entrants could end up out of the race. then what? will future bettors be saying there shouldn't be a future bet at all?

I think this example gives more proof that they should open it up to a lot more individual betting interests than 23. If you bet a future in the NFL or any other major sport, they have odds for every single team. Should be the same for horse racing instead of 23 horses hand picked by a few people.

If every triple crown nominated horse was available to wager on, I'd have zero problem with the secrecy around Shared Belief's connections to not point to the derby.

[Kasept]

STANDINGS UPDATED: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/sites/k...0Standings.pdf

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I think this example gives more proof that they should open it up to a lot more individual betting interests than 23. If you bet a future in the NFL or any other major sport, they have odds for every single team. Should be the same for horse racing instead of 23 horses hand picked by a few people.

If every triple crown nominated horse was available to wager on, I'd have zero problem with the secrecy around Shared Belief's connections to not point to the derby.

agree completely that they should have more than 23.
as to secrecy regarding shared belief....it was no secret he had a hoof issue. that's a caveat emptor moment right there.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Kasept

4/5/14 Wood Memorial 1 1/8M - AQU:

Samraat (Violette)
Uncle Sigh (Contessa)
In Trouble (T. Dutrow)
Honor Code (McGaughey)
Commissioner (Pletcher)
Noble Moon (Gyarmati)
Kid Cruz (Rice)
Social Inclusion (M. Azpurua)

I've read in a few places that Clement is pointing Tonalist to the Wood, if he continues to train well up to the race.

[letswastemoney]

Shouldn't Edison and Gala Award be pointing towards dirt races? Bernardini is a dirt sire! I wonder how good they'd both be.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Shouldn't Edison and Gala Award be pointing towards dirt races? Bernardini is a dirt sire! I wonder how good they'd both be.

I would not call Bernardini a dirt sire, so far he has been a major disapointment. And Pletcher is pretty sharp, Im guessing if either could dirt they would have already run over the surface.

[tanner12oz]

Pablo del Monte and Harry holiday to the spiral

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I would not call Bernardini a dirt sire, so far he has been a major disapointment. And Pletcher is pretty sharp, Im guessing if either could dirt they would have already run over the surface.

And I would have to disagree, as Bernardini is very much a dirt sire in my book. Connections make mistakes all the time. Cigar biggest example. Imperative is a recent example of a better dirt horse sired by Bernardini.

[letswastemoney]

But, I'm not saying Bernardinis are good overall, only that they're better on dirt and excellent on wet dirt.

[pmayjr]

since Edison and Gala Award are owned by the Coolmores, maybe they're telling Todd where to enter the horses? Eventhough they're both Bernardinis, and one would think their preferred surfaces would be dirt, the Coolmores probably are the ones calling the shots.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by pmayjr

since Gala Award is owned by the Coolmores, maybe they're telling Todd where to enter the horse? Eventhough he is a Bernardini, and one would think his preferred surface would be dirt, the Coolmores probably are the ones calling the shots.

Regardless of what some people say, Bernardini has been a gigantic bust as a sire. And again, just because he is a Bernardini does not mean he will be better on dirt. There is pretty much 0 chance at all that Todd does not already know the horse cant run on dirt, or horses in this case.

[pmayjr]

I dispute that... I mean, you could definitely be right, but I don't think it's proven yet. How do we know until we see him run over the surface? I think Poker Player has awesome potential on dirt as well. Should I think because Catalano has only entered him on dirt and synth that he won't ever be a dirt horse?

[Kasept]

Rusty Arnold tells ATR listeners that recent Gulfstream MDN winner Woodfield Springs (Raven's Pass) will go in Blue Grass @keeneland next..

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rusty Arnold tells ATR listeners that recent Gulfstream MDN winner Woodfield Springs (Raven's Pass) will go in Blue Grass @keeneland next..

I realize he had a dream trip last time, but I think Woodfield Springs can turn into a turf superstar. He should be pointed to that big new turf race at Belmont.

[Kasept]

Looks like 12 for the Spiral..

Tamarando (Hollendorfer)
We Miss Artie (Pletcher)
Solitary Ranger (Catalano)
Asserting Bear (Baker)
Coastline (Casse)
Harry's Holiday (Maker)
Arctic Slope (McPeek)
Big Bazinga (Vassilieva)
All Tied Up (Pletcher)
Almost Famous (Byrne)
Smart Cover (Romans)
Tourist (Mott)

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Looks like 12 for the Spiral..

Tamarando (Hollendorfer)
We Miss Artie (Pletcher)
Solitary Ranger (Catalano)
Asserting Bear (Baker)
Coastline (Casse)
Harry's Holiday (Maker)
Arctic Slope (McPeek)
Big Bazinga (Vassilieva)
All Tied Up (Pletcher)
Almost Famous (Byrne)
Smart Cover (Romans)
Tourist (Mott)

Good grief... that race isnt exactly murder's row. I could see Big Bazinga, We Miss Artie or Solitary Ranger running huge over that surface... and then being the longest shot on the board on Derby Day. If Tamarando is the real deal he needs to beat this bunch and in convincing fashion.

Smart Cover and Tourist are eligible to move up, but... wow... for all the weak preps thus far, this one is up there.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I would not call Bernardini a dirt sire, so far he has been a major disapointment. And Pletcher is pretty sharp, Im guessing if either could dirt they would have already run over the surface.

I'm not sure what you would call him then.

Bernardini Dirt stats.
1071 starts from 198 different horses 17% Winners 44% ITM 28 stakes wins.
236 starts on an off track 21% winners.

Bernardini's turf stats
361 starts from 128 different horses. 7% winners 28% ITM 2 stakes wins.
Around 3-4% first time turf.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Looks like 12 for the Spiral..

Tamarando (Hollendorfer)
We Miss Artie (Pletcher)
Solitary Ranger (Catalano)
Asserting Bear (Baker)
Coastline (Casse)
Harry's Holiday (Maker)
Arctic Slope (McPeek)
Big Bazinga (Vassilieva)
All Tied Up (Pletcher)
Almost Famous (Byrne)
Smart Cover (Romans)
Tourist (Mott)

Supposedly Catalano is entering BOTH Solitary Ranger and Poker Player in the Spiral. Maybe he hopes that if either/both have solid performances, but don't win, they can be wheeled back in 3 weeks for the Blue Grass?

Per Brisnet-

According to Turfway's assistant racing secretary and stakes coordinator Tia Murphy, trainer Wayne Catalano has moved John Battaglia Memorial runner-up Poker Player from "considering" to "expected to enter."

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I'm not sure what you would call him then.

Bernardini Dirt stats.
1071 starts from 198 different horses 17% Winners 44% ITM 28 stakes wins.
236 starts on an off track 21% winners.

Bernardini's turf stats
361 starts from 128 different horses. 7% winners 28% ITM 2 stakes wins.
Around 3-4% first time turf.

I would call him a giant bust as a sire.