Why Andy Beyer is a Legend

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

it's not the $9. it's the 2 hours of your life.

and much as i respect the 2 andy's, i'm pretty sure you don't want them calling you every time they think they have an angle.

Yeah it would be hell on the cell phone bill taking both of those call as they occur about once every six months....passing races when you should is like winning for these guys.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Andy Beyer can walk faster than any living human

Would that be at the 2F distance or the mile?

[MISTERGEE]

hey thats the same guy that catched the pedophiles

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Huh?

Andy Beyer doesn't strike me as a guy who makes many "huge" plays a year.
Serling seems to preach "pick your spots" or don't play races where form is suspect or Maiden races or first timers or turf sprints and the list just goes on.

Both Beyer and BTW seem to be about realizing that " you can beat a race but you can't likely beat the races" if you play every race on a card or multiple cards in this era of simulcast. My instincts tell me that Andy Beyer probably says that same thing to BTW fairly infrequently. The phone isn't going to be ringing Andy to Andy for huge bets very frequently. These guys win because they don't play to play but only when they have an edge for sure which is less often than most of us think.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Andy Beyer doesn't strike me as a guy who makes many "huge" plays a year.
Serling seems to preach "pick your spots" or don't play races where form is suspect or Maiden races or first timers or turf sprints and the list just goes on.

Both Beyer and BTW seem to be about realizing that " you can beat a race but you can't likely beat the races" if you play every race on a card or multiple cards in this era of simulcast. My instincts tell me that Andy Beyer probably says that same thing to BTW fairly infrequently. The phone isn't going to be ringing Andy to Andy for huge bets very frequently. These guys win because they don't play to play but only when they have an edge for sure which is less often than most of us think.

as much as i respect the 2 andy's i stiil occasionally take the cigar out of my mouth.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Andy Beyer doesn't strike me as a guy who makes many "huge" plays a year.
Serling seems to preach "pick your spots" or don't play races where form is suspect or Maiden races or first timers or turf sprints and the list just goes on.

Both Beyer and BTW seem to be about realizing that " you can beat a race but you can't likely beat the races" if you play every race on a card or multiple cards in this era of simulcast. My instincts tell me that Andy Beyer probably says that same thing to BTW fairly infrequently. The phone isn't going to be ringing Andy to Andy for huge bets very frequently. These guys win because they don't play to play but only when they have an edge for sure which is less often than most of us think.

I can safely say I agree with very little of this.

You do seem to try to interpret a lot of information that really isn't there. This post was just a fun story and a little kick to all those that make silly claims that Beyer is a lousy horseplayer.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I can safely say I agree with very little of this.

You do seem to try to interpret a lot of information that really isn't there. This post was just a fun story and a little kick to all those that make silly claims that Beyer is a lousy horseplayer.

Well quite frankly this is written using the information you provide over several years now. You have said on many occasions that you are not playing certain races or that learning how not to bet good money on bad races was the key to being successful on Byk's show and similiar things on You Bet or your Toga Touts in the summer.

We have never met in person but if you hear, read, or watch someone several
hundred if not a thousand times on line,in print or TV it's not that much of a stretch to see patterns and thoughts that are repeated over and over. Inference is the substance of handicapping is it not?

Some of what you say about racing is useful IMO, some of it isn't. I have learned things from some of your successes and made money playing against your opinion when the data isn't there to support it.

Beyer's Derby handicapping is boyish folklore that doesn't negate the place the man has in the history of the sport. If he's burning your phone with "huge bets" weekly I stand corrected but like Haskin "huge wagering" is not likely the focus of Mr Beyer's daily life pertaining to racing IMO but it is just that, an opinion.

You want to disagree Andy that's fine, your entitled to your own opinion like anybody else, just keep posting those contrary handicapping opinions here, I can't possibly thank you enough for the help they provide.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As many of you know, Andy Beyer went to South America this winter to take a stab at South American racing. He spent hours making figs for their races and was unfortunately faced with a huge takeout and miniscule pools that made real wagering virtually impossible. But, while it was a great exercise and a fun time, until today it was also a financial waste of time.

While riding the train out to Belmont today I got a call from Andy telling me he was making a huge bet at Belmont. Now, this is the time that I would usually be smart to hang up and tell him I lost service, but recklessly I allowed him to go further. In the second race, an extraordinarily weak maiden race, Andy told me that #4 Emotival was his huge bet. Three races back in Argentina Emotival had finished a close third and Andy had given him a figure of 77 which towered over today's field. Two back when he finished fifth at 1 1/8 miles ( today's race was a mile ) the horse had been right there in midstretch and last time when he faltered badly at 1 1/4 miles he had been scorched in a torrid speed duel. He said he was fully confident in the 77 figure and considering today's field he was sending it in. That was good enough for me and I followed suit.

Emotival, if you don't know, paid $21 after holding off the odds on favorite....and Beyer was repaid for his hours of work in preparation for his South American adventure. At a time when having an edge using speed figures is virtually non-existant, Andy Beyer did the near impossible, and for a few minutes turned back the clock.

Good followup to Beyer's S. American misadventure. It's a good example of how putting in some solid work time can pay dividends at unexpected times later on.

--Dunbar

[3kings]

BTW,

Can you quickly go over your money management on this race? Not the amounts, but how you used your information to maximise your profit. Straight bet, exacta, multi race wagers, etc..... I believe this is a part of the game that many people, including myself, struggle with.

[Scav]

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

If I had to take a guess, I'd say the standard $20 to show.

000000000000000000

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

5) Find a teller at Arlington who knows how to punch in any of those

[the_fat_man]

An interesting hypothesis would be if
the horse were running on SUN, when he does the NYRA show:

would he have given the horse out?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

An interesting hypothesis would be if
the horse were running on SUN, when he does the NYRA show:

would he have given the horse out?

Hell no he wouldn't have given the horse out, he might have 'mentioned' him as a price suck up play or something, but information like that comes around every 3-4 years now.......

All I ask is I GET ONE of them, and the horse actually runs like this one did

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Scav

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that $60
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less
4) Win money

You really think that's how he played it?

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You really think that's how he played it?

If I had $500, I would have played it this way

1) Singled in a P4 ticket that (1x3x4x5) ($60)
2) Tri key in all three spots with 5 other horses (x2) ($120)
3) Exacta key with 5 horses, back wheel for less ($10 on top, $5 behind) ($75)
4) Win money ($245)

Total of $500

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

As many of you know, Andy Beyer went to South America this winter to take a stab at South American racing. He spent hours making figs for their races and was unfortunately faced with a huge takeout and miniscule pools that made real wagering virtually impossible. But, while it was a great exercise and a fun time, until today it was also a financial waste of time.

While riding the train out to Belmont today I got a call from Andy telling me he was making a huge bet at Belmont. Now, this is the time that I would usually be smart to hang up and tell him I lost service, but recklessly I allowed him to go further. In the second race, an extraordinarily weak maiden race, Andy told me that #4 Emotival was his huge bet. Three races back in Argentina Emotival had finished a close third and Andy had given him a figure of 77 which towered over today's field. Two back when he finished fifth at 1 1/8 miles ( today's race was a mile ) the horse had been right there in midstretch and last time when he faltered badly at 1 1/4 miles he had been scorched in a torrid speed duel. He said he was fully confident in the 77 figure and considering today's field he was sending it in. That was good enough for me and I followed suit.

Emotival, if you don't know, paid $21 after holding off the odds on favorite....and Beyer was repaid for his hours of work in preparation for his South American adventure. At a time when having an edge using speed figures is virtually non-existant, Andy Beyer did the near impossible, and for a few minutes turned back the clock.

In my head, the archetypical image of the horseplayer is a man, with equal parts hubris and a puckish impulse to annoy those around him, screaming, at the top of his lungs, "I'm the KING OF THE WORLD!" after making a big score.

I appreciated your story. Thanks.

[hockey2315]

If I had $500 I'd put $500 on the horse to win. Why key it in 2nd and 3rd? If you think the horse is a lock to win then that's just a waste of $. I understand the idea of giving yourself a little insurance if then horse runs well but doesn't win or if he has a bad trip but still gets a piece because he's the best horse - but you can't try to over-hedge things in this case - you go for the big/sure score. And why risk being wrong about other legs of a PK4 that you almost definitely have a less strong opinion on?

Your way: $2327.50 + 2596 + $300 + $290 = $5513.50

and that assumes that you hit every bet - which in this case is far from definite and not worth the risk when you consider that if you just played the horse to win for $500 you'd get back $5250.

Is the extra $263.50 really worth the increased risk? No way. Not to mention that you also have to worry about tax stuff your way. . .

[Scav]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If I had $500 I'd put $500 on the horse to win. Why key it in 2nd and 3rd? If you think the horse is a lock to win then that's just a waste of $. I understand the idea of giving yourself a little insurance if then horse runs well but doesn't win or if he has a bad trip but still gets a piece because he's the best horse - but you can't try to over-hedge things in this case - you go for the big/sure score. And why risk being wrong about other legs of a PK4 that you almost definitely have a less strong opinion on?

Your way: $2327.50 + 2596 + $300 + $290 = $5513.50

and that assumes that you hit every bet - which in this case is far from definite and not worth the risk when you consider that if you just played the horse to win for $500 you'd get back $5250.

Is the extra $263.50 really worth the increased risk? No way. Not to mention that you also have to worry about tax stuff your way. . .

It is $40, or 8% of investment.

As far as your comment on the P4 is concerned, the power of having a $20 winner IN THE FIRST LEG of a P4 is HUGE. The first leg has the most information available for the uninformed.

As far as I am concerned, a P4 is a must play there because of the potential to spread in the other three races, and the LARGE potential of a p4 payout. With a win wager, you are maximized at a $20 payout on that win wager, on the P4 play, you can really make a huge score.

I am not saying to ignore the win wager completely, because that would be moronic.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If I had $500 I'd put $500 on the horse to win.

If I like a horse and it's decent odds (>5:1), I would also just bet it to win.

If there's a strong favorite in the race, I'll play a small saver exacta UNDER the favorite.

Spreading works real well when EVERYTHING works out.

I don't understand why I need to SPREAD when my strong opinion is in THIS race, not subsequent or previous ones. If, however, I have strong opinions in those races, of course I go exotics.