6/11 (BEL): Belmont, Manhattan, Acorn, Just a Game, Stephens, True North

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by GPK

Cool. Toga is out for me this year, unless I hit me a pick 4 that will pay me 2 or 3 dimes.

Will you two nerds take this offline?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Will you two nerds take this offline?

Get a new avatar.

[slotdirt]

I suppose Big Brown is a little passe. Sort of like GPK's closet.

[Travis Stone]

I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I think this is a really interesting Belmont....

Overbet (even if just slightly):
Nehro
Master of Hounds

Underbet:
Shackleford

Neither Over/Under:
Animal Kingdom
Mucho Macho Man

I generally agree with everyone who thinks Shackleford might run out of gas, but I think there's still a chance he pulls a Da Tara and just bottoms-out the field. If Animal Kingdom runs his race, he should be there. There's no doubt he and Shackleford right now are the top two in the division.

Nehro is everyone's wise-guy horse, but I'm less enthused. He's an obvious contender, but he's going to be overbet (I think, anyway) based off the fact he skipped the Preakness, is lightly-raced etc. I'll use, and hope to beat.

To make a big score, you have to beat a few of the obvious guys somewhere. I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

If it comes up wet, Brilliant Speed enters the conversation a bit. Not sure about him yet on a dry track.

I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Get a new avatar.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I'm going to try and get Santiva somewhere on the board. He was probably short in the Derby, and ran well enough to justify a move forward in here at a good price. He has the pedigree, too.

That's the price horse that I think should be on the board too.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by CSC

I like Brilliant Speed, his derby was similar to Summer Bird's.

In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

In the Derby, Brilliant Speed was much wider and had the "tougher" trip. I might hedge myself on Santiva going forward... I still don't like Nehro that much though.

I realize Animal Kingdom is bred for the turf, but his pre-derby workout obviously showed he moves really well on the dirt.

But watching Brilliant Speed's win in the Bluegrass again, he appears to really move like a turf horse, and I just can't get myself to like him....at all.

[Travis Stone]

Does anyone think a change of tactics might happen on say a Ruler On Ice or Prime Cut, and they break looking for the lead?

I guess even if that does happen, Shackleford can rate off a target, and he probably has the same questions about distance as before...

[hockey2315]

I think people are ignoring the potential for Ruler On Ice to add to the early pace w/ the addition of blinkers and some fast recent works, and think Prime Cut might be close too.

[Travis Stone]

Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?

I hope it stays that way.

[Travis Stone]

It's early, but even in the doubles to Master Of Hounds is getting hit hard.... his DD with Birdrun is $17, versus $37 for Shackleford.

[tjfla]

Where u seeing the early odds at?

[Travis Stone]

They showed them on Versus... then there was a few people from on-track who were posting them to Twitter too.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

They showed them on Versus... then there was a few people from on-track who were posting them to Twitter too.

Cool thanks

[Alan07]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Shackleford is 16-1 in the early betting... what?

Odds reflect on-track betting only.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Alan07

Odds reflect on-track betting only.

Good to know. Thanks. But the double does not. And the double is 2x the payoff to Shackleford as Master of Hounds.

[Mike]

Way too early to think those early wagers are an indicator of race day odds; but it sure shows the media splurge and expert picks of Master of Hounds have dropped his odds, and at the seemingly sole expense of the disrespected Shackleford.

If it's wet, I'll box Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man