Any Given Saturday gets my offical Derby endorsement

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Not PG1985, buddy. Pointg5.

Whew!

That's a relief. I was going to have to speak to Byk about allowing you near sharp objects this summer.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Whew!

That's a relief. I was going to have to speak to Byk about allowing you near sharp objects this summer.

It's the grill burns I worry about.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It's the grill burns I worry about.

Well, after cleaning up on Cowtown Cat in the Derby you won't be working there.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Well, after cleaning up on Cowtown Cat in the Derby you won't be working there.

I'm not exempt from getting stove burns at Chez Byk.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Cowtown Cat's last two victories, against dramatically sub-par fields, were both earned while taking advantage of strong track biases. In the Gotham he sat the perfect tuck on a golden rail and rallied to beat a very mediocre sprinter who was stretching out and didn't even receive a perfect trip having been denied the lead, and rail, in the early part of the race. In the Illinois Derby he loafed on the lead, while taking advantage of another track that was more than extremely kind to inside speed, against the previously mentioned poor field.

Not only is Cowtown Cat one of the least likely winners of the 2007 Kentucky Derby, he isn't even particularly likely to ever win another race.

If this was any other year, I would not give Cowtown Cat a second look, but these horses are all slow. His best Beyer only trails the best Derby 3yo Beyer by 5 points, that difference can be easily achieved by a 3yo at this time of year. Your points of the perfect trips and easy leads are well taken, but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups. He doesn't fight the rider and can be used however the pace scenario dictates. It's not like he is a one hit wonder, his best Beyer as a 2yo and 3yo is only seperated by 8 points, that's not a huge difference giving the allowance for age improvement. I don't believe in all of these Derby myths, but he's coming into this race great, 2yo foundation, solid 3yo campaign, and 4 weeks until the Derby. When you are trying to seperate horses, I view this as a positive. There's some speed horses in here that are quitters this year, Stormello, Liquidity, Teuflesburg, maybe they all don't go, but I would take my chances with Cowtown than any of these guys.

I really don't care what kind of remarks are made, it's not important to me, what others think. I don't think I am stepping that outside of the box with Cowtown Cat relative to this years competition, but if others do that's fine, it should help the case at the window. It's like in Baseball or Basketball, when comparing players to other eras, it's not relevant, unless they are playing against each other. Cowtown is not running against last years horses and it doesn't matter what has happened in the past relative to this year.

[Travis Stone]

I can't argue with some of the logic of Cowtown Cat. But 20-1 closing odds in the future pool, which could easily be his price on Derby Day, leads me elsewhere.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Your points of the perfect trips and easy leads are well taken, but at some point you have to credit the horse for taking advantage of those biases and setups.

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Um, no I don't nor would I ever. I debit horses for being in positions to take advantage of track biases because those biases were what created false performances and thus those performances were worse than they appeared. Your post suggests the horse seemed to know there was a bias and was smart enough or good enough to thus take advantage of it. Hogwash. Perhaps the rider was, though in the Gotham it was mostly a factor of him drawing the best possible post, or the trainer was, as was possible in the Illinois Derby as all they had to do to get the fence was take advantage of the worst rider in America in Larry Melancon.

Simply put, the horse's performances, which aren't all that good on face value, are dramatically better than they should be due to circumstances relating to trip. With even a fair trip this horse would be easily three to five lengths worse in each race. He is SLOW and a complete non-factor in pretty much any race he now enters.

If Cowtown Cat wins The Derby I will have a duncecap surgically attached to my head. He should be able to handle Teuflesberg....maybe even Love Dubai (if he makes the derby)...but thats about it.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

If Cowtown Cat wins The Derby I will have a duncecap surgically attached to my head. He should be able to handle Teuflesberg....maybe even Love Dubai (if he makes the derby)...but thats about it.

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

Thats exactly why I mentioned the horse. I just cant help myself from taking shots at Drugs.

Did Love Dubai even finish running in the Bluegrass yet?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Only because I'm a self-important wreck of a person do I feel obligated to trumpet my Ky Derby pick out once I've concluded who it will be.

This is the first time in a while that I've watched all the preps before concluding whom I want to bet on. That's because I really despise this crop from a talent standpoint. Here's a look back at all my other internet board Derby endorsements from this decade...

2000: Fusaichi Pegasus (1st)
2001: Invisible Ink (2nd)
2002: Perfect Drift (3rd)
2003: Empire Maker (2nd)
2004: Rock Hard Ten (Didn't run)
2005: Giacomo (1st)
2006: Discreet Cat (Didn't run)

Any Given Saturday is this years lucky winner of my endorsement. Perhaps they will use that on his stallion catalog when he is retired. As for why.....

I understand this is not a horse of great talent...and one thing that isn't being talked about, is the incredible lack of heart this horse has. THREE TIMES he's had a top horse in his crop almost put away in a Graded Stake race, and in all three occasions, he let him off the hook.

* In the KY Jockey Club at age 2, he passed Tiz Wonderful, and had as much as a half length lead on him, with outside position, in the stretch. He lost.

* In the Tampa Derby, Street Sense skated up the rail on him, but this horse had more run left, and had NO BUSINESS not putting away that horse.

* In the Wood Memorial, off-the-far turn, he had Nobiz Like Shobiz, and stuck a head in front briefly...however, he just came off the steel and put up no fight through the stretch.

In a 20 horse field, at a 10 furlong distance, in a race which almost always features a fast early pace---being a faint-hearted grinding type of horse is a FAR greater advantage than it is under more tradition racing circumstances.

That's why I had no problems taking horses like Invisible Ink, Perfect Drift, Empire Maker, and Giacomo. While Barbaro won easily last year, a horse of NO ABILITY whatsoever named Steppenwolfer, was able to run 3rd in a race where he didn't get near as much setup as he would have in other Derby's.

Horses like Fusaichi Pegasus, Rock Hard Ten, and Discreet Cat just appeared to be irresistable talents to me...horses who I felt were cut out to be seriously great horses---which is why I took them inspite of the fact they don't exactly fit the profile of horse I'm biased too.

Any Given Saturday is the absolute right horse to bet in the Derby. I expect him to sit a mid-pack trip and be right there at the wire. If he doesn't win, I'm confident I know who the five or six right horses are to use with him in the exacta.

I'm not surprised this is your selection; while you make some very convincing points on why he's a solid selection (and I would agree with you on them all) he's the classic "wiseguy" horse and that seems to be your goal here, to prove your "wiseguyness" with this choice. Good luck, I hope you're right because I'm sure I'll use him somewhere in my wagers.

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm not surprised this is your selection; while you make some very convincing points on why he's a solid selection (and I would agree with you on them all) he's the classic "wiseguy" horse and that seems to be your goal here, to prove your "wiseguyness" with this choice. Good luck, I hope you're right because I'm sure I'll use him somewhere in my wagers.

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

I tossed Point Determined last year from the tri but will be playing Any Given Saturday in the win spot this year.

[PPerfectfan]

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

<raising hand> yep I fell right into the "wiseguy" horse trap damnit!! I didnt play him on top but he was on all of my tickets.I shoulda know his big butt couldnt get it done. I think Dominican is the Point Determined of this years Derby.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I tossed Point Determined last year from the tri but will be playing Any Given Saturday in the win spot this year.

And as you well know I also think highly of his chances to at least hit the super. I'm just pointing out the fact that his selection was pretty obvious due to his style (once again, not necessarily the wrong approach to things.)

Ruffian and Xtra are good friends with the office manager at WinStar, and over BC weekend we went out to dinner with him... so I said "I've seen a couple Distorted Humors out there in the last few weeks that are interesting, what do you think of Cowtown Cat" he says, "he's ok but Any Given Saturday is our Derby horse." That said a lot to me.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'd bet $5 you liked Point Determined last year after DC was declared out of the Derby.

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

I used him too. Had Barbaro to win, but boxed Barbaro, A. P. Warrior, Steppenwolfer and Storm Treasure for my tri box. Bluegrass Rat screwed me up. (Well, technically I did that myself, but still. )

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Don't knock Love Dubai....DrugS was all over him in the Blue Grass.

hey....he improved his figure by 35 points......but yeah, I thought he could round out a superfecta.

You and Pete pick your spots....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You'd be wrong.....

Embarrassingly, I bet A. P. Warrior.

I stand corrected. I owe you $5.

I got sucked into using that bum in my exotics too. Yet another Cal horse that goes up in flames...

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

I stand corrected. I owe you $5.

I got sucked into using that bum in my exotics too. Yet another Cal horse that goes up in flames...

You can add me to the guilty list for betting that nag.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

You can add me to the guilty list for betting that nag.

There really didn't feel like there was any right move, from a betting standpoint, going into last years Derby.

Barbaro had become "the wiseguy" horse---and was bet to favortisim right up until one minute before post--when someone bet 100K on SNS. The same Barbaro who's win in the FLA Derby was being unfairly bashed on many message boards as a real moderate performance. With each workout going into the Derby, he seemed to gather more and more support. In year's past, those type of horses often seemed to run bad.

SNS was also really being bet---and his win at Hawthorne came with a very soft trip...so he couldn't be touched.

Brother Derek had a sprinter/miler pedigree and won soft stakes with easy trips. He was an ice-cold morning line favorite who couldn't be touched.

It seemed like there were a lot of traps last year...