BEYER: Poly's Anti-Speed Bias

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And, by the way, " the importance that I put in the Beyers "? I have stated here many times that Beyer speed figures are a very small part of my handicapping and that, at best, I use them as a guide. Since you obviously have taken little, or no, notice to my posts about handicapping it seems pretty presumptuous of you to make these comments. What this really seems to be is an example of you posting whatever suits your agenda with little regard to truth.

When you start a thread off with Beyers for Sat, you throw me off, and it appears you have a one track mind, giving less credence in your handicapping threads. I think most of the younger kids on here, also start off with Beyer reports too! Now you have me confused as hell. My agenda is simply, toss the beyers, has been, and always has been. I have not waffled one bit.

I wouldn't joke with Mr. Beyer either. He's serious business.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by MisterB

When you start a thread off with Beyers for Sat, you throw me off, and it appears you have a one track mind, giving less credence in your handicapping threads. I think most of the younger kids on here, also start off with Beyer reports too! Now you have me confused as hell. My agenda is simply, toss the beyers, has been, and always has been. I have not waffled one bit.

I believe he (or anyone who does thier own) was asked for them...I'm sorry BTW that all your credibility was lost by my silly question.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

When you start a thread off with Beyers for Sat, you throw me off, and it appears you have a one track mind, giving less credence in your handicapping threads. I think most of the younger kids on here, also start off with Beyer reports too! Now you have me confused as hell. My agenda is simply, toss the beyers, has been, and always has been. I have not waffled one bit.

Who ever said you waffled? You claimed you hadn't done something that you clearly did. That's not waffling.....it's being deceptive ( to be kind ).

I posted the Beyer numbers as a service to people that asked for them...as Sightseek pointed out. They were not posted yet at DRF when I got up yesterday, so I called Beyer and asked them for the numbers, and posted them here because people had already asked about them, as they do every week. I apologize if my providing information that was asked for, and not readily available, confused you. Now, perhaps, you won't make this mistake in the future.

[blackthroatedwind]

And, furthermore, saying that my posting the Beyer numbers somehow gave " less credence " to my posts about handicapping is total BS.

[whodey17]

I like when people post info that is not yet available. Keep up the good work for those who post info before it is made public.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Who ever said you waffled? You claimed you hadn't done something that you clearly did. That's not waffling.....it's being deceptive ( to be kind ).

I posted the Beyer numbers as a service to people that asked for them...as Sightseek pointed out. They were not posted yet at DRF when I got up yesterday, so I called Beyer and asked them for the numbers, and posted them here because people had already asked about them, as they do every week. I apologize if my providing information that was asked for, and not readily available, confused you. Now, perhaps, you won't make this mistake in the future.

10-4, I won't, I'll assume it for now on. Wonder why these people are asking for a beyer, I guess they don't read your handicappin then.

[MisterB]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And, furthermore, saying that my posting the Beyer numbers somehow gave " less credence " to my posts about handicapping is total BS.

Sorry, I assumed again. I'll just concentrate on the handicappin threads for now on.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MisterB

Sorry, I assumed again. I'll just concentrate on the handicappin threads for now on.

No problem.

We'll all feel better when Saratoga opens in just over three months.

[ArlJim78]

I think not many of us would want to be judged on our prowess at selecting the derby winner, the toughest race to figure out all year. Its an odd race at an odd distance, with a huge field. Its the big EVENT race of the year and no other race each year do you approach the same way you do the derby.

I don't know how bad Beyer has actually been in the derby, and it doesn't matter much to me and it doesn't even one bit cloud my opinion of him.
I do know my own derby winner selection rate, and it is frighteningly bad.

[nebrady]

Whats great about america is the right to free speach. Just because mister B doesn't agree with what beyer says doesn't mean he dislikes him. Truth is that the race was run on the poly for the first time. Until the derby is run who really knows what affect it will have. It amazes me how people on dt love to trash a horse or person. I remember when discreet cat got beat in dubai, how people started to call him garbage. One race doesn't make a horse and along that lines one person statements don't tell the whole truth. Thats what make america and dt great, the right to free speach and the right to voice it!

[Mortimer]

10-4,
--------------

ror!!





IT'S HIM!!!!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by nebrady

Whats great about america is the right to free speach. Just because mister B doesn't agree with what beyer says doesn't mean he dislikes him. Truth is that the race was run on the poly for the first time. Until the derby is run who really knows what affect it will have. It amazes me how people on dt love to trash a horse or person. I remember when discreet cat got beat in dubai, how people started to call him garbage. One race doesn't make a horse and along that lines one person statements don't tell the whole truth. Thats what make america and dt great, the right to free speach and the right to voice it!

I agree with what you're saying. It always has to be black and white, great or garbage. It can never be nuanced or grey.

since we have all this free speech, let me ask you a question about your post.

Is it really true that someone referred to Discreet Cat as garbage? I missed that one. It does seem a bit harsh.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I think not many of us would want to be judged on our prowess at selecting the derby winner, the toughest race to figure out all year. Its an odd race at an odd distance, with a huge field. Its the big EVENT race of the year and no other race each year do you approach the same way you do the derby.

I don't know how bad Beyer has actually been in the derby, and it doesn't matter much to me and it doesn't even one bit cloud my opinion of him.
I do know my own derby winner selection rate, and it is frighteningly bad.

It's funny how when I was working on the trading floor I was beseiged every year by people looking for the Derby winner as though I had some sort of special knowledge about this race....the hardest race to handicap every year. But, no matter how many consecutive losers I gave them ( OK, I liked FuPeg at 2-1 ) they kept coming back for more.

I guess I should be happy they didn't care about Aqueduct and Belmont on a daily basis.

[nebrady]

Don't remember the exact words, but they weren't kind to the cat. He loses one race and people think hes done. They get mad because they lost money betting on him. When looking at him before the big race, you should have been a little wary of betting him he missed his prep. But just because he lost that race, shouldn't take away what he has done. Hopefully he will recover and come back the horse he was.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by nebrady

Don't remember the exact words, but they weren't kind to the cat. He loses one race and people think hes done. They get mad because they lost money betting on him. When looking at him before the big race, you should have been a little wary of betting him he missed his prep. But just because he lost that race, shouldn't take away what he has done. Hopefully he will recover and come back the horse he was.

This gets to so much of what's wrong with racing these days in that these horses run so selectively that every race is put under the microscope. Of course most horses have bad days, and if you know anything obviously Discreet Cat's Dubai World Cup performance is a complete throwout, but with so much emphasis being put on one day, like the BC, each race becomes enhanced or exagerated.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by MisterB

OK, what does the other derby preps have anything to do with this one? Evidence of what, he doesn't like poly tracks. he disagrees with the bettors and the President of Keeneland. What point did he make, other than cry like a baby about the poly.

It pretty much has everything to do with the other Derby preps. The way I read it is that you cant seriously take very much out of this race because of the way it was run. He infers that it had something to do with the Polytrack, but I would have felt the same way if they ran this on dirt, pavement, rocks, whatever. I would not advance Dominican on my board or push Street Sense or Great Hunter back because of this race. As Andy points out, it turned into a walk around the track because the jocks didnt want to push their charges knocking the anti speed bias at Keeneland now. That turned the race into a sprint to the finish and that is not gonna happen on Derby Day. The first 1/2 will be ticked off around 0:47, not 0:51.2 like Saturday.

Other preps were run closer to form and therefore, more credibility has to be placed on them than the Blue Grass...actually that's no different than last year's Blue Grass. I drew a line through the field for the race because it was an absolute speed race. This year is a different reason to knock it.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This gets to so much of what's wrong with racing these days in that these horses run so selectively that every race is put under the microscope. Of course most horses have bad days, and if you know anything obviously Discreet Cat's Dubai World Cup performance is a complete throwout, but with so much emphasis being put on one day, like the BC, each race becomes enhanced or exagerated.

On the topic of Beyers, since that is what this thread was about, as someone who always takes them into consideration, I can't help but feel like Street Sense's descending figures are not a good sign. It could be partially because I feared that he had peaked in the BC Juvenile and that it would be a long time, if ever, before he duplicated that effort. I just don't get terribly excited about a horse whose last three figures are 108/layoff/102/93. That's not a recipe for success on Derby day in my opinion.

NT

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

On the topic of Beyers, since that is what this thread was about, as someone who always takes them into consideration, I can't help but feel like Street Sense's descending figures are not a good sign. It could be partially because I feared that he had peaked in the BC Juvenile and that it would be a long time, if ever, before he duplicated that effort. I just don't get terribly excited about a horse whose last three figures are 108/layoff/102/93. That's not a recipe for success on Derby day in my opinion.

NT

That 93 is the most meaningless figure in the history of Derby preps. The race was run like a turf race so treated like a dirt race it gets a terrible figure. I'd urge anyone to draw a line through that 93 when doing your capping.

[NTamm1215]

I agree the number is probably a bit skewed, but Andy made it clear that Beyer said he thinks the number is right. I think a big part of the problem is that the Polytrack was quite a bit slower on Saturday than it was a week before. 20k claimers went 9 furlongs in just a tad over 1:50 on April 7, while the Blue Grass went in 1:51 and change.

I am not buying that 93 as an absolute certainty, though, and thanks for your insight Sniper.

NT