Whos 2nd-4th Derby Lock??

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

He's got stamina top and bottom (Turkoman has one of the highest AWD's of American sires), with tactical speed. The distance isn't a concern, the trip is though- he doesn't quite have the tactical speed of say a Smarty Jones or Afleet Alex, and doesn't have quite the late kick of a Thunder Gulch, but runs very consistently and hasn't fired a bad race yet (I don't care what anyone says, that Arkansas race wasn't bad at all under an impossible scenario.) A very good chance to hit the board, even if his win odds may be slightly underlaid to his actual possibility of winning.

My second choice to key will likely be Street Sense if the public doesn't recognize his talents, and 3rd choice of CQ (the layoff is really driving me crazy because I think he may be the best "fit" of all the runners in the field to win if Pletcher can get him right.)

I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Phil- What do you make of the way Hard Spun's connections have gone back and forth about going to the Derby, running in the Bluegrass, etc. . . ?

Makes me sick. Just run the f#@$*(@#king horse. Porter finally has a legitimate Derby contender and is doing his best to ruin it.

But I trust Jones. If he's ready, he'll go. If he isn't, he won't- this is a sharp trainer.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

Pletcher WILL break through eventually. He's just got to talk to his mentor on how to have them ready on the big day... so far he's got 2 clunk up seconds and that's it, but his time will come. It took Lukas what, 7 years?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I just think that Pletcher will have him right and the fact that JV can essentially be the last to pull the trigger because his kick is so explosive. With the stretch being so long he could essentially sit the rail the whole time and just explode through medium sized hole of tiring horses and bye bye.....It is his time. Pletcher is deadly off this kind of layoff also, he is dead fit.

If you think you're getting 12/1, I think you're nuts.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

If you think you're getting 12/1, I think you're nuts.

I'm guessing 7 or 8-1 on CQ unless there's a significant run on Curlin futures.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

I'm guessing 7 or 8-1 on CQ unless there's a significant run on Curlin futures.

I think Curlin is going to get unloaded on and could be favored at 4/1, with that said, people will play SS and Scat Daddy, and the layoff will scare people off CQ, I think 10 or 12/1 is realistic

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think Curlin is going to get unloaded on and could be favored at 4/1, with that said, people will play SS and Scat Daddy, and the layoff will scare people off CQ, I think 10 or 12/1 is realistic

The way I see it:

Curlin - 9/2
Street Sense - 11/2
Nobiz Like Shobiz - 7/1
Circular Quay - 8/1
Scat Daddy - 9/1

The word is out on Quay, and it has been for a long time. I remember I thought I was going to get 4/1 on him in the BC Juvy, but it didn't happen.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think Curlin is going to get unloaded on and could be favored at 4/1, with that said, people will play SS and Scat Daddy, and the layoff will scare people off CQ, I think 10 or 12/1 is realistic

Curlin could go a tick lower given the fact that he went to 7/2 in the futures- I wouldn't bet him with my ex-girlfriend's money at that price!!!

I'm guessing the top 8 will be:
Curlin 7/2
SS 7/1
Nobiz 8/1
Circular Quay 10/1
Scat Daddy 10/1
Hard Spun 15/1
Tiago 18/1
Any Given Saturday 20/1

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

Curlin could go a tick lower given the fact that he went to 7/2 in the futures- I wouldn't bet him with my ex-girlfriend's money at that price!!!

I'm guessing the top 8 will be:
Curlin 7/2
SS 7/1
Nobiz 8/1
Circular Quay 10/1
Scat Daddy 10/1
Hard Spun 15/1
Tiago 18/1
Any Given Saturday 20/1

Well if you won't, I will. (I kid.)

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Well if you won't, I will. (I kid.)

Please, please, please do!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Curlin could go a tick lower given the fact that he went to 7/2 in the futures- I wouldn't bet him with my ex-girlfriend's money at that price!!!

I'm guessing the top 8 will be:
Curlin 7/2
SS 7/1
Nobiz 8/1
Circular Quay 10/1
Scat Daddy 10/1
Hard Spun 15/1
Tiago 18/1
Any Given Saturday 20/1

AGS will be lower then TIAGO, wise guy written all over him......but that looks right

[whodey17]

Here is what I think

1) Curling - 3 to 1
2) SS - 9/2
3) No Biz - 6 to 1
4) Hard Spun - 9 to 1
5) Quay - 11-1

Phil's list looks pretty good but you've got to stick Dominican and Cowtown in there as well. Dominican is sure to take some as he has beaten SS so probably in the 10-1 range as well. Cowtown at...??

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Scav

AGS will be lower then TIAGO, wise guy written all over him......but that looks right

Agreed, AGS is this year's wiseguy horse, you could easily flip flop those. Depends on the Cali contingent's belief in the SA Derby winner.

I might have lowballed the odds a bit in a 20 horse field, actually; the 3rd favorite is usually 10-1ish...

Originally Posted by easy goer

Phil's list looks pretty good but you've got to stick Dominican and Cowtown in there as well. Dominican is sure to take some as he has beaten SS so probably in the 10-1 range as well. Cowtown at...??

Dominican, yes. Should be in the 15 to 20-1 range. Cowtown? 30-1, minimum. Any less than 40-1 is a signficant underlay.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Scav

Bad news is fine. I was telling GPK tonight that his turn of foot on the dirt is Afleet Alex like. If he is healthy (no wraps whatsoever unlike Bandini last year) I am all over him and not getting talked out of it

I posted after CQs second win last summer that he had afleet alex-like acceleration when he wanted to. I backed off on that comparison a bit, because it was hard to tell based on the 2-yos he was beating at the time.
He's my key horse in the derby, and love the fact that his work pattern is on track and JV signed on to ride.

I'm hoping Pletcher and JV are gearing him up for a big one.

[slotdirt]

I love CQ as much as the next guy and I'm certain he would have won the Wood if he had ran, but doesn't this eight week layoff thing bother anybody in the least? This isn't St. Liam and Pletcher isn't Dutrow.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by Scav

Yeah, I am all over it this year, I just freed up another $300 for this wager alone. SO just for the Derby I am doing

$10 exacta box with 5 horses
$100 WP on CQ, doesn't matter of post
$1 tri with CQ in all three spots with 10 horses in each of the legs

SO I am already in the hole $670

That's my Boy. Scavs you are awesome.

I somehow don't see you calling your financial advisor and telling him to free up $300 for your Derby wager though.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That's my Boy. Scavs you are awesome.

I somehow don't see you calling your financial advisor and telling him to free up $300 for your Derby wager though.

Yep, just filted it from the checking account.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by easy goer

Phil's list looks pretty good but you've got to stick Dominican and Cowtown in there as well. Dominican is sure to take some as he has beaten SS so probably in the 10-1 range as well. Cowtown at...??

I love how much opinions can vary about the derby, I think these two are total tosses in this race.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Scav

AGS will be lower then TIAGO, wise guy written all over him......but that looks right

Scavs,you are not in position to dog other people's price horses.Your problem is you get stuck on dog waste.You're not like a fly on dog waste(no sir.)
Flys atleast move................

Once you're on the pooh,you don't move.