grab some sack..a bettors opinion

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

that race or the race you like should be tied in ..in all plays max your advantage..id say with 1000 buck is high for the rec player..

300 win
200 ect key x 2 ,,,,1 key with 3/4. =.400

thats 700 in
tri key 50 buck key 1 over 3/4 100 bucks
pick 3 and 4 15 or 20 x if the light shines on you this day be ready to soak it in...

One of the things I like about hooves's advice here is that he is advocating more than just putting the majority of your money on your play of the day (although obviously he is advocating that as well). He is also saying that if you really like a horse you should play him multiple ways. You should (depending on the card and the odds) single him in pick3s and pick4s, you should key him in exotics, AND you should bet the horse to win. How many times does it happen where your play-of-the-day goes off at 3/1, wins, and you didn't have a straight win bet on him at all because you only had him in the pick3 and keyed in a trifecta? Then the other horses screw it up for you, and you think, "Damn, why didn't I also bet that horse to win?"
This is good advice, I think. Not only should you maximize the dollar amounts you play on a horse, but you should also maximize your chances of winning if your key horse does what you think he will do.

[golfer]

Steve, that's a great analogy, except for one point; most of us who can completely relate to what Hooves is saying (ie.. betting "light" when we should be betting heavy)can do so because we are NOT getting the results at the end of the day (week, month..) that we believe we should be. Your analogy is about different ways to get into the Hall of Fame, but, and I'll speak entirely for myself, I need a way to get to the big leagues, first. My wagering approach is not working. The definition of insanity is continually doing the same thing, but expecting different results. I need to change my swing, and I find Hooves' approach to be very interesting. This is why I think this may be the most important thread I've read on DT!

[pmacdaddy]

Do most of you guys track all your wagers?

Personally, I usually keep a "tab" for Saratoga. Other than that I just have a general sense of how I'm doing, or at least how I think I'm doing....

Obviously, really keeping score can't hurt. Do you see it as escential to a productive strategy? What level of detail?

I have been thinking about really documenting my plays starting with BEL.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by Kasept

This is a monsterously broad topic that has unlimited answers that apply individually but only one that applies universally: Play horses you 'like'.

The difficulty with a standard application of a betting formula of any kind stems from the fact that the casual player has varying degrees of motivation, time and opportunity when it comes to his or her horseplaying. Because of that, the casual player generally is betting too many races on their race-playing days to be especially successful long term.

The discipline to only play horses that you identify as most likely winners is only the first part of the equation. From that point. you then have to decide what an acceptable price is on that horse for you to be involved as well as how you want to utilize that horse or those horses. Handicapping will lead you to horses in every single race that you believe are the most likely winners. If one 3-1 and one is 8-1, where do you go from there? Do you key both in tris? Do you box them for exactas going heavier with the lower price on top? Do you use the pair as part of the foundation for P3 or P4 plays? Do you bet both to win?

No one can answer that for you because each player has to apply their own style of play and personal price-value ratio to their investment strategy.

Hooves' style of play is exceedingly unique and not for everyone. To utilize some baseball analogy, he is very much like Adam Dunn of the Reds. He may bat .246 on the year with 170 strikeouts, but hits 47 home runs and drives in 118 runs. His 'production' makes him a success. Like Dunn, he maintains a high confidence level that allows him to go to bat each time thinking he's going yard in that at bat, and doesn't allow the days with 3 K's in 4 at bats to shake his confidence.

Does that make him better or worse than an 'Ichiro' type horseplayer who gets 215 hits for a .366 average but with few home runs and far fewer RBI? It doesn't make him better or worse... Both are successful. The Ichiro horseplayer takes lower prices and bets them conservatively and ekes out out a steady profit. The Dunn horseplayer is prone to pendulum swinging streaks of misses and scores where the longshot prices of the scores more than offsets the misses.

And as in this analogy, 'taking pitches' is the key. Dunn goes to the plate with the attitude that every any pitch near the plate is hittable and swings accordingly. Ichiro is content to take pitch after pitch waiting for a pitcher's mistake before swinging. That is the same as approaching every race as playable versus being willing to accept a 'walk' by passing a race and looking forward to your next at bat. A fat pitch coming in looking like a grapefruit is a horse you like. If you're an Adam Dunn, there's a pitch every at bat that looks fat and if you're Ichiro, there's maybe one pitch a day that looks fat.

What are you looking to do? (i.e. singling to move runners up = getting through the leg of a P4.. Tying the game in the bottom of the ninth with a solo homer, etc..). The fact is that being a horseplayer is a lot like being a baseball player. It's a long season or career..

They play 162 games a year in baseball and that may be about how many times a casual fan plays races (about once every 2 days on average over the course of the year). What you do in your last at bat (that one day) isn't important. "Getting even" on the day is not important. There is no 'bet of the day' just as there is no 'at bat of the day' for a baseball player. You swing at pitches you like and if you don't see a pitch worth swinging at for three straight games (or 12 straight races), so be it.

If you're in a groove you swing at everything and everything is a double off the wall or carries out of the park. When you're in a funk, it doesn't matter what you're doing, you miss everything or you line out viciously to the shortstop. The important thing is that you're going to take the field tomorrow and get the same chances you had today. You're looking to be put up Hall of Fame numbers OVER A LIFETIME.

Like baseball, horseplaying is a game of redeeming qualities. Identifying what you do best and having confidence in your attributes as a player is all that matters. No one should be adjusting your stance or tinkering with your swing. The only good advice is simply to maximize your pitch selection, accept bases on balls when they're offered and swing when you see something you like. Remember that Rod Carew AND Harmen Killabrew are both in the Hall of Fame, though both took entirely different routes to get there.

I have only read a year of your stuff but excluding columns this has to be the longest post on a subject I have ever seen you leave. Either great coffee for the first two hours of a day or a real chord was struck with you on this one Steve.

I have seen you write time and time again that you don't beat this game over the long run with the 9/2 win shots. That the only way to beat this game LONG TERM is the exotics (exacta,tri's and super's) and taking advantage of the payoffs with lesser take out such as the P3 or P4 sequences. As much as I certainly agree that you should play horses you like I would also make a play for playing the types of races you like.

I happen to think that I am better off playing turf races and maiden races because the payoffs seem better and exotics are my thing. Some angles (turf breeding for one) require faith without form you can see if your betting maiden special wgt or turf routes that your keying pedegree based on stats and trainer styles of handling horses that tell you the trainer thinks he has something though the horse may never have run a turf or a route before.(Contessa the day he said "If you see me drill a day or two before a maiden race say 3F's and I let the horse blow it out I mean business") It seems that occasionally it is an angle in a race you like or look for that you key.

Haven't you over the life of your handicapping found that certain races, trainers and favorite tracks bring out the best in you Steve. It seems you murder New York tracks with the predictabilty of tax day. My guess is that has to be a comfort zone for you.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Do most of you guys track all your wagers?

Personally, I usually keep a "tab" for Saratoga. Other than that I just have a general sense of how I'm doing, or at least how I think I'm doing....

Obviously, really keeping score can't hurt. Do you see it as escential to a productive strategy? What level of detail?

I have been thinking about really documenting my plays starting with BEL.

In my opinion if you aren't keeping track of how you are doing you aren't really serious about it. I use brisbet and Youbet and you can get summaries of your performance. I started putting the data in a spreadsheet each month.
I like to evaluate my performance on different wagers, tris, supers, pk3-4's, and I also found it extremely valuable to review performance at different tracks.

so yeah, in my opinion its important because it lets you know where your strengths and weaknesses are.

If you don't play often the data might not be very good as one or two big hits will skew things. But if you take the long view and look say at a whole year you should see trends.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

In my opinion if you aren't keeping track of how you are doing you aren't really serious about it. I use brisbet and Youbet and you can get summaries of your performance. I started putting the data in a spreadsheet each month.
I like to evaluate my performance on different wagers, tris, supers, pk3-4's, and I also found it extremely valuable to review performance at different tracks.

so yeah, in my opinion its important because it lets you know where your strengths and weaknesses are.

If you don't play often the data might not be very good as one or two big hits will skew things. But if you take the long view and look say at a whole year you should see trends.

Thanks. Think I am going to start my tracking by segregating two categories, pick4's and all other plays to start. Guess if my sheet has a few identifying columns, I can sort as needed once I get some data in there.

I will be playing NY tracks 95% of the time, so it souldn't be too tough.

Hopefully, it will keep me from throwing money around as well...

[whodey17]

I think I will chime in a bit, I read the thread so I apologize if I am saying something that has already been said and I just missed the post.

I am an exacta player. If we take the horse in Hooves example (5-1) and we call him the 5 horse and I am playing that horse on top in an exacta I want to make sure that each exacta combo with the 5 on top is paying at double my investment. See example below...

10 horse field and I love the 5 horse at 5-1. It would cost me $18 to key the 5 on top of 9 horses for a $2 exacta key. The minimum exacta combo I want is $36. That is double my investment. If you see a combo that is less than double, then you want to structure your ticket so that the minimum is double your ticket. Or you may want to play that certain combo more times to make up the difference.

And I agree with Hooves that one should unload using that horse in pick 3's, 4's, tri's...etc.etc.

Does this make any sense?

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by docicu3

I have only read a year of your stuff but excluding columns this has to be the longest post on a subject I have ever seen you leave. Either great coffee for the first two hours of a day or a real chord was struck with you on this one Steve.

I have seen you write time and time again that you don't beat this game over the long run with the 9/2 win shots. That the only way to beat this game LONG TERM is the exotics (exacta,tri's and super's) and taking advantage of the payoffs with lesser take out such as the P3 or P4 sequences. As much as I certainly agree that you should play horses you like I would also make a play for playing the types of races you like.

I happen to think that I am better off playing turf races and maiden races because the payoffs seem better and exotics are my thing. Some angles (turf breeding for one) require faith without form you can see if your betting maiden special wgt or turf routes that your keying pedegree based on stats and trainer styles of handling horses that tell you the trainer thinks he has something though the horse may never have run a turf or a route before.(Contessa the day he said "If you see me drill a day or two before a maiden race say 3F's and I let the horse blow it out I mean business") It seems that occasionally it is an angle in a race you like or look for that you key.

Haven't you over the life of your handicapping found that certain races, trainers and favorite tracks bring out the best in you Steve. It seems you murder New York tracks with the predictabilty of tax day. My guess is that has to be a comfort zone for you.

I hear you. Turf and Maidens are gold if you can hit 'em. The first thing I look at is the breeding. Breeding gives you an idea of potential. It's pretty exciting with new sires. Every year there is someone new throwing winners at a big price. Polytrack provides another puzzle.

[brockguy]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Thanks. Think I am going to start my tracking by segregating two categories, pick4's and all other plays to start. Guess if my sheet has a few identifying columns, I can sort as needed once I get some data in there.

I will be playing NY tracks 95% of the time, so it souldn't be too tough.

Hopefully, it will keep me from throwing money around as well...

I must add that I find when I record bets, I bet smarter. I think a bit more before I bet. you dont want to look back at bets and ask yourself, why oh why did i waste my money on that!

[philcski]

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

thats what im saying ...how many times have you pissed away cash on f around bets and then the play you like is sitting there and you go" light"

All the F*CKING TIME!!!

Good advice dude... basically better stratify your "strong" plays and your "fun" plays...