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#41
05-22-2007, 09:23 PM
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FYI, Nakatini is now named as rider 
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#42
05-22-2007, 09:35 PM
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My pathetic stab
R4 makes this a crapshoot - Can't see chasing this with a huge bankroll only to get knocked out in the 2nd leg...That said, here goes -
R3) 8 Surf Town will take a lot of money, but stepping up from Mdn 32 out of the ice cold O'neil barn and a fair chance to get caught wide from the outside post in addition to seeing winners for the first time leaves him off my ticket. Not crazy about 1st turfers off the cush here (no descernable turf ped), so leave 2,3,4 with him. The 6 Casual Thunder has proved he's outclassed at this level; the trainer change may help but not enough to make a case to use him. Like the way the 7 is coming in, 3rd off and from Petionville, and will probably single him. R4) Impossible. Going to single the 5 Skipper Mike, as he appears to be the tallest pygmie, but may get temped to add the 3 Steel Kitten with Paauch 23% firsters R5) Another tough one...Like to go 5 deep here, but think I'm going to chase some value..the 8 Bernsconi will get a lot of attention at the window, but don't care for the way the pace appears to be setting up for him - may be too much to close into - Like the 4 Robbos Courage 2nd off from Mr. Greeley shouldn't have a bit of trouble going to the weeds - coming off a career beyer, a bullet work second back, and Nak/Dollase 22% for the meet. R6) If I get through 3 singles  I can afford to open the ticket up...Going to use 4 horses here; The coupled entry for the 1a, the 5,8 and 10. If the 1a is scratched, I'll leave off and add the 3 in race 4.R7) The race that knocks 90% of the tickets out as Idiot Proof is surely a single play here and is fairly vunerable back in allowance company. Going with the 1 Pick Vic ( Sadler 28% cush) and the 6 Shem (Gallagher 29% turf/cush) R8) Cal Breds - meh.....The 7 Tina Ballerina apparently likes the poly, and is in form off a win against same last out, the 10 Jimmy Pong showed some signs of life over the surface as well, and will use the 5 O Bee Naki on the drop in class (Periban 31% 2nd off layoff) EDIT POST SCRATCHES and second guessing.... I'm adding Oneil's firster in the 4th...gut feeling I'm also spreading in the 5th rather than the 6th as it looks much tougher Also going full out chicken sh!t and adding Idiot Proof in the 7th... 7 5,10 2,4,5 1e 1,4,6 5,7 1x2x3x1x3x2 = 36x2 = $72.00 Also playing: 7/6/4/1/1,6/7 = $4 6/5/5/1/4/5 = $2 6/6/2/8,10/2/7 = $4 Let's get this thing! Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 05-23-2007 at 08:06 PM.
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#43
05-22-2007, 10:12 PM
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Couple of horses
Not gonna put an actual ticket up due to being crazy and thinking it will jinx me BUT here are a couple horses that I like tomorrow and reasons why
Race 3: #2 Duty Roster (6/1 ML)- Not sure if he can win but Lewis has some great first turf and dirt to turf, and the horse is bred to route, might relish the distance Race 4: #6 Warren's Devonlane (12/1 ML no shot at this ML)- Gryder named and then Nakatini just finds his way on the horse, that alone makes me want to single him, but can not do. Wide open affair Race 5: #1 Unusual Suspect (7/2 ML)- This horse is a miler and closed into a 47.2 split in California, if this were Belmont or Arlington I would say that is normal, but not for California, positive jock change Race 8: #5 O Bee Naki (7/2 ML) - This is where TG is just great. Everytime this horse has touched the cushion track, he has run good numbers, look at the allowance races back in November and December. Mig gets aboard for the class dropper. SOLID play IMO but still can't single
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#44
05-22-2007, 10:27 PM
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#45
05-22-2007, 10:34 PM
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Leg 1 - R3 - Alw 40s Turf
#6 Casual Thunder - 2nd start for Canani. Gelding has been knocking on the door at this level. #8 Surf Town - Imporved a ton on the lawn and now resides in always hot O'Neill barn. Leg 2 - R4 - MD 40K 2yr old Fillies #6 Warren's Devonlane - Nak seems fit to hop aboard and the 1st time lasix make her attractive as well. #5 Skipper Mike - Adds the hood after 2nd place finish in debut. #9 Clever Lady - Sheds some weight with hot jock Talamo. Look for improvement with the blinkers. Leg 3 - R5 - Alw 51KN1X Turf #4 Robbos Courage - Dollace knows how to get them ready for their 1st time on the turf. #1 Unusal Suspect - 2nd in the G3 Generous and making 2nd start of the year. Major player here. #8 Bernasconi - Decent U.S. debut and could take another step up right into the winner's circle. #5 Yankee Bay - Has improved BSF wise with every start and always dangerous on the grass. #2 Tycoon Doby - Paddy/Solis 21% together. Nice effort in first start over the lawn. Leg 4 - R6 - MD 32K #8 Lotta Gamble - Huge drop in class for the son of Point Given. Shedding 9lbs doesn't hurt either for the Baffert trainee. #4 Dennybuck - Spawr always solid off the bench. #1A Headcoach - Blinks come off after failing as the favorite in last. Drops to lowest level yet. #1 For Duty - Bullet blowout on Sat and should enjoy the extra real estate. Leg 5 - R7 - Alw 49N1X #4 Idoit Proof - Speedster should enjoy cutback in what should be his race to lose. Leg 6 - R8 - Clm 10K statebreds #2 Gotta Go Gal - Lost all chance at the break in last. Should be a handful versus these. #9 Sexy Operator - Chop Chop looking for the lead as the bell rings and hopes to chop has way to the finish line. #3 Star Quality - Consistent type is at her best distance. #4 Lupita'sluckyangel - Looking for the pace setters to give way for her late kick. The Play - $2 PK6 - 6 8 with 5 6 9 with 1 2 4 5 8 with 1 4 8 with 4 with 2 3 4 9 = $720 I'm going to play this ticket with 5 partners = $120 a piece Good Racing Luck
__________________
Good jockeys don't need instructions and bad ones don't follow them
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#46
05-22-2007, 11:18 PM
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A few (random) questions
Why does everyone love surf town...decent horse but come on...Court is up, and that tells me something about the private purchase. Maybe I am crazy, he is working well now that he is in O'neills barn. 2 horses have run a single digit TG number on the turf, the 1 and 6. Anyone else gonna use Our Lear Jet at 30-1? I hope I get every bit of the 112-1 he was last time. R-E-A-C-H but what the hell, what a bad race. Last race at 6f wasnt all that bad... For those that were watching the tvg special, got the feeling Scat Theif is gonna run much much better then the crazy cajun is admitting to? I am sure it is a prep, and he does want longer...but 1st time gelding on this crazy bastard is gonna make a big difference. Again, regarding the tvg special, did you see that crazy leg action on Gotta go Gal? WOW..but my question is if she has been that jacked up and running those figs what makes you think she cant use that chicken wing action to win against this group? Star Quality looks good too.
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#47
05-22-2007, 11:27 PM
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#48
05-22-2007, 11:41 PM
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yes, his dirt sprint figs are the same as Robbos but he has a much better turf pedigree and a win over the surface at approx the same dist. Knighthood should move up a ton on the turf as well. This is one tough race.
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#49
05-22-2007, 11:44 PM
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#50
05-22-2007, 11:53 PM
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Knighthood is a reach, but Espinoza would be on if he was able....not crazy about him, just a horse that could blow things wide open. His Damn has dropped some good turf runners. Another note, there is no reason (based on pp's) Knighthood should of been 7-1 and Robbo at 5-1 in their last race. There was some talk....
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#51
05-23-2007, 12:00 AM
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My single appears to be Surf Town in leg A. The horse is the only one in that group that has room for improvement. Casual Thunder might be the worse m/l fav on the card. So I will take my chances with Surf Town. The leg I am going deep in is Leg C. I am leaning towards starting the pick 6 off with single single.
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#54
05-23-2007, 12:28 AM
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#55
05-23-2007, 12:28 AM
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#56
05-23-2007, 12:32 AM
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Leave Talamo off your ticket in ANY leg at your own risk. . .
__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#57
05-23-2007, 12:34 AM
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#58
05-23-2007, 12:42 AM
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#59
05-23-2007, 12:52 AM
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While not posting a ticket, I will post the structure that I am using and where I might add horses if the early DD comes up 5-5
4x4(1)x3(1)x5x1x2(1) (1) means I might add one in that location, only going to add one more horse if I add one so it will be in one of those locations
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#60
05-23-2007, 01:00 AM
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Linear Mode
