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#41
08-17-2007, 05:06 AM
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan  and now we murderers because we kill time 
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#42
08-17-2007, 06:25 AM
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i just started hearing that phrase about 35 years ago too.
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#43
08-17-2007, 10:05 AM
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Is this natural 8.5 furlong animal really top class?
Do you guys feel this is a superior animal? I am talking horseflesh here not his recent running form.
Personally I think he is a nice horse for sure, but not a top of the breed animal. I think he has shown dramatic improvement as far as running goes in the last 3 months. That to me along with several others in his barn who showed dramatic improvent and or surprisingly brilliant finishes in the last 3 months is a credit to the trainer. It has been at the point where you see a Pletcher "2nd stringer" like Sam P. and you wonder if Sam P. will suddenly show this brilliant finish although nothing on his form suggests it. Mike Mitchell East. This is a horse that looked like he could never make it to 10 furlongs, now he suddenly is the best finishing 3yo. I understand Distorted Humor is a popular sire and for that reason Any Given Saturday will be popular to some right away. I do not think AGS will be terrible as a sire, he may even produce a few precocious runners or show a little versatility, but I don't see him as a super-sire in waiting.
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#44
08-17-2007, 11:06 AM
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Out of all new American stallions that Darley will have by next year, i think it will be Street Sense and Discreet Cat that disappoint in the breeding shed.
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Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#45
08-17-2007, 12:52 PM
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Now, because most of Distorted Humor's best runners have been either geldings (Funny Cide and Commentator) or relatively new sires (Flower Alley) it is impossible to know if he will make a good "sire of sires" but he certainly might. As for AGS's performances on the track, other than his two uninspired performances in April and May of this year, he has five wins and two places from seven starts, and given his recent success, seems to be still on the upside of his career. I think he has a better shot than most of becoming a good sire...........if he can overcome the guilt of letting down DrugS.
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#46
08-17-2007, 01:51 PM
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Points in no particular order
1. Darley's American breeding operation has been pretty lousy 2. It is no secret that Sheikh Mo wants to do anything in his power to hurt Coolmore (which he has) 3. There is zero chance that they paid $50 mill for AGS 4. Winstar has Distorted Humor, they dont need AGS (plus they think that they going to get one like him every year...), why not cash out before he possibly gets exposed? 5. Speculating on the success of future stallions is difficult because other than proof of being top class, racing performance does not have that much to do with it. 6. Darley's buying these three year olds up because they are convinced that this is an outstanding crop and they want to be a bigger player in the stallion ranks in USA (which they now are) 7. I don't think that they will buy Curlin unless he wins out the rest of the year , then all bets are off.
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#47
08-17-2007, 02:24 PM
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There is every chance they paid $50million for him. Money is no object for them and WinStar had already expressed their delight about standing him next year. There is no way they would have let him go for any less than twice what he is worth. With his pedigree and race record, and the fact he is still improving (so it seems) he would easily be worth $20million at least as a stallion prospect. Sure, they have Distorted Humor, but these days studs want as many sons of their stallions as they can get. Just like Coolmore wanted as many sons of Danehill as they could get. I'm pretty certain that they wouldn't have let him go for anything less than $40million.
__________________
Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#48
08-17-2007, 02:41 PM
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#49
08-17-2007, 02:44 PM
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#50
08-17-2007, 02:55 PM
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what do you mean by that??! discreet cat will run for at least 3 more years dude!
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#51
08-17-2007, 03:05 PM
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now, i'm not really a fan of distorted humor, and i'm certainly no fan of this crop of 3yos, but one thing intrigues me about AGS as a stallion prospect.
actually, this is more to do about AGS's sire, distorted humor, but bear with me. people are forgetting that not that long ago, DH first started out as about a 5k stallion. the mares sent to him werent really that good, and when you look at the way DH moves up his mares, well, his numbers for that are PHENOMENAL. Both his average earnings index, and the other figure they use to compare how much a stallion moves up a mare compared to other stallions those mares have been bred to are sky high, and the comparative index blows away any other sire (as of the last time i checked). he even blows away indian charlie in that regard (who has routinely got the worst book of mares a big name stallion can possibly get). now that we are actually seeing well bred mares being sent to DH, such as is the case with AGS, i think we are going to see a high demand for sons of DH. i wouldnt be surprised to see him become the next really big sire of sires, much like mr p or northern dancer were. has any stallion's stud fee moved up as fast as DH by the way? from about 5-10k to 225k in well under 10 years.
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#52
08-17-2007, 05:11 PM
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is SS "Superior"? I hope so. AGS looks nice but not superior.
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#53
08-17-2007, 06:01 PM
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i think the odds are that one in ten stallions is considered a success....so if darley buys 100, they're bound to get 10 good ones! what a rate of return.
 equivalent to throwing mud on a wall, and seeing what sticks.... not so sure that they are buying up what they consider the best, or just making sure coolmore can't. but i suppose they think by buying up all the top colts, they are assured a place in the future. i think it's crazy. no real plan--and if this is their thinking, who decides what mares go to whom?? if you fail to plan, you plan to fail(don't you love cliches?). no rhyme or reason, just snap them all up. crazy stuff.
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Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#55
08-18-2007, 05:27 AM
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Godolphin/Darley don't have a plan, do they even have a clue? They are just mass buying, hoping that something works out. If it doesn't they just go and buy more and more until it does work. Which is why i have said that these stallions better be a hit for your sakes, of the buying will never end. They have done the same over here with racehorses that they have no intention to breed from, they have just been buying up the racing competition, and they still can't compete. It's a joke.
__________________
Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#56
08-18-2007, 08:05 AM
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people talk about breeding to race vs breeding to sell (ostensibly for someone else to race). seems there's a third one. breeding to sell(to breed).
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#57
08-18-2007, 08:12 AM
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 Ferguson seems to be pedigree lover. I quite think that he will see a beautiful pedigree and will pay upwards of $5million for it and then he discovers it has three good legs.
__________________
Avatar ~ Nicky Whelan and now we murderers because we kill time
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#58
08-18-2007, 08:17 AM
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i guess it depends on their ultimate goal...but it just seems they are throwing money in all directions, rather than having a real sense of the approach they want to take.
i just think if they wanted to build a real successful stable, they can and will--and have. but the focus is seemingly on being better than coolmore..the sheik has a huge undertaking ahead of him. meanwhile, coolmore follows their plan, and their sucesses continue.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#59
08-18-2007, 08:22 AM
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also, wonder why the sheik is so fixated on coolmore--lane's end is doing better than him as well....
amazing the top sires and their farms on this years list. top two are lane's end stallions, then a winstar, and then two ashfords(coolmore). lane's end has 5 in the top 20. ashford has 4. darley? 1
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Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#60
08-18-2007, 08:22 AM
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