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  #41  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:06 PM
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miraja2 miraja2 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
Hard Spun had to carve out brutal fractions in that race.
While 1:11 for the opening 6f of the Derby isn't exactly crawling, I don't think I would call it "brutal." He got the lead early, and while he was pressed through the opening quarter, he was unchallenged from there until Street Sense ran by him.
People talk about Street Sense's "dream trip" along the rail, and certainly it was a combination of some gutsy riding by Calvin and some good old-fashioned racing luck. But I think because Hard Spun's trip wasn't so obviously amazing, it sometimes gets lost that HE had a very easy trip as well. Not only was he just cruising on an uncontested lead down the backstretch, he was right along the rail the whole way around too. It isn't like Street Sense's amazing trip that day caused him to save a lot of ground in comparison to Hard Spun.
Now obviously that race was over 5 months ago and on a different racetrack in a different part of the country than the upcoming race. The fact that Street Sense was - in my mind at least - clearly the best horse that day obviously does not mean that he is going to beat Hard Spun in the BCC. However, from what I have seen from these two horses on the dirt, and beyond 9f, there is no reason for me to believe that Hard Spun is a more likely winner than Street Sense on a fair track.
I am not completely convinced at this point, however, that either of them will beat Curlin.
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  #42  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:23 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Anyone know if Curlin is off to the shed after the Classic? I don't remember seeing it anywhere, but I am guessing a successful son of Smart Strike is kinda of popular right now
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  #43  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Couldn't the same be said for Curlin, or Street Sense? Lawyer Ron sat a perfect trip and flat out got beat by Curlin. He ran well, don't get me wrong. But I think he's off the board in the Classic.
a bold statement.. .. i like that.. but for me the rest are suspect..
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  #44  
Old 10-18-2007, 07:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Couldn't the same be said for Curlin, or Street Sense? Lawyer Ron sat a perfect trip and flat out got beat by Curlin. He ran well, don't get me wrong. But I think he's off the board in the Classic.
Funny, but we agree.
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  #45  
Old 10-18-2007, 10:02 PM
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any thoughts on post time favorite? and possible odds?
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  #46  
Old 10-18-2007, 10:09 PM
hockey2315 hockey2315 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geeker2
any thoughts on post time favorite? and possible odds?
Curlin at 3-1
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  #47  
Old 10-18-2007, 10:22 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockey2315
Curlin at 3-1
Dunbar is the man when it comes to making these odds, but Lawyer Ron should be favored when all said and done, with SS/Curlin/AGS all floating in the same area.
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  #48  
Old 10-18-2007, 11:56 PM
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I'm gathering intelligence.








I'm not finding much.


But intelligence isn't everything.
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  #49  
Old 10-19-2007, 12:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
It's a great race as it is , but I would prefer 12 or 13 horses to bet on.

Would much prefer to see Student Council , Sun King, Diamond Stripes, Gotcha Gold/Grasshopper/Going Ballistic as well.

Slightly better odds and a super pays a lot more if one of the "deadweight" horses sucks up for 4th.

Encourage a full field at the expense of having each contender be a true win candidate.




Oh gosh...that's a good one.




Hey...can I use this?
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  #50  
Old 10-19-2007, 12:07 AM
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If only Lava Man were in this race...
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  #51  
Old 10-19-2007, 01:15 AM
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I think a handicapper's dream would be if it were this Classic field + Lava Man + The Green Monkey
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  #52  
Old 10-19-2007, 08:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scav
Dunbar is the man when it comes to making these odds, but Lawyer Ron should be favored when all said and done, with SS/Curlin/AGS all floating in the same area.
As someone planning on betting this race, I hope you are right about Lawyer Ron being the favorite, but I am not so sure he will be. Don't you think a lot of people will be scared off by his 0 for 3 lifetime number going 10f?
I know I will be.
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  #53  
Old 10-19-2007, 09:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nomad
You're doing a good job.
Oh yes.


The Good Lord knows I've always admired Steve's fine work.





Speaking of fine work,Steve.......I want to run just a short test of my BCC Analysis as we have switched from a trash can to a shredding machine.


So if ya don't mind......












Lawyer Ron.

Judge Judy.




WHIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR







Hard Spun.



Depth challenged.

Congaree.

And what have you.









WHIIIIIIIIIIIRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR












Thanks Steve.


Work good.
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  #54  
Old 10-19-2007, 02:22 PM
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Morty?
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  #55  
Old 10-19-2007, 02:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cajungator26
Morty?

Whatty?
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  #56  
Old 10-19-2007, 06:19 PM
avance2000 avance2000 is offline
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i think ags will be the value here cause the $$ will go on the big names.
im betting on him.
i just wish invasor was still around to crush these upstarts the way he crushed frauderdini last year.
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  #57  
Old 10-19-2007, 06:21 PM
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Travis Stone Travis Stone is offline
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Invasor was going to be here this year. It's unfortunate we're not seeing him because of an injury, as opposed the usual ones that retire at 3-years-old. That makes it worse, cause he was an awesome horse.
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  #58  
Old 10-19-2007, 09:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHoss9698
Avance, I don't remember you ever mentioning it. Did you bet Invasor last year?
LOL

I did, I did!
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  #59  
Old 10-22-2007, 04:33 AM
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Tiago Classic Hollywood Park 7 furlongs 1.25:00
Awesome Gem Classic Hollywood Park 6 furlongs 1.12:80
Any Given Saturday Classic Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.02:12
Lawyer Ron Classic Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.01:26
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  #60  
Old 10-22-2007, 01:14 PM
alysheba4 alysheba4 is offline
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i know alot of folks dont give tiago any credit, but he is going to run a HUGE race.
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