TVG vs Scav Selection Thread

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So, after six days of racing, nobody has hit, and there have been tons of tickets.

Just more proof that playing Pick-4s for small money, with one ticket, is not the road to victory.

It also doesnt prove one large more expensive ticket with several back-up tickets is the road to victory. We would need Scavs to construct two sets of wagers for every pick 4 event to decide which format was better. If the avg pk4 payout is say $800, then scavs can go several weeks without a hit, and if he gets one he is even. In the larger play w/ backup format, you obvously have to cash at a much higher rate. I would love to see this exercise in addition, but I know this is already a serious time investment from Scavs.

[pmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

It also doesnt prove one large more expensive ticket with several back-up tickets is the road to victory. We would need Scavs to construct two sets of wagers for every pick 4 event to decide which format was better. If the avg pk4 payout is say $800, then scavs can go several weeks without a hit, and if he gets one he is even. In the larger play w/ backup format, you obvously have to cash at a much higher rate. I would love to see this exercise in addition, but I know this is already a serious time investment from Scavs.

I have been wrestling with the issue of ticket size and structure a lot lately.

Guess that exercise really is the best way to really find out. Certainly would be time consuming. I also don't think any outcome could be applied across the board to everyone.

Maybe a pick4 symposium?

[Scav]

Lets all relax, it is 6 days in, I am one ticket away from being up for a while.

Lets visit this once the Hollywood meet is over and anaylze then

[ALostTexan]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

I have been wrestling with the issue of ticket size and structure a lot lately.

Guess that exercise really is the best way to really find out. Certainly would be time consuming. I also don't think any outcome could be applied across the board to everyone.

Maybe a pick4 symposium?

I think it is a good idea. I haven't taken part in a P6, but I love watching and learning from the threads...

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Rootdog1

It also doesnt prove one large more expensive ticket with several back-up tickets is the road to victory. We would need Scavs to construct two sets of wagers for every pick 4 event to decide which format was better. If the avg pk4 payout is say $800, then scavs can go several weeks without a hit, and if he gets one he is even. In the larger play w/ backup format, you obvously have to cash at a much higher rate. I would love to see this exercise in addition, but I know this is already a serious time investment from Scavs.

Thank you for clearing that up for me.

Yes, a good opinion of some sort is a necessity to make money at the racetrack. But, regardless of how good one's opinion may be, they will NEVER make money in the long run playing small Pick-4 tickets. Of that I am certain.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Scav

Lets all relax, it is 6 days in, I am one ticket away from being up for a while.

Lets visit this once the Hollywood meet is over and anaylze then

you shouldn't at all be discouraged. I told you that its hard to hit on $50.
here's why;
assuming 10 horse fields, throwing $50 at the pick 4 gives you the same coverage of all potential combinations as you would get by firing $4 at a trifecta in a 10 horse field.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Thank you for clearing that up for me.

Yes, a good opinion of some sort is a necessity to make money at the racetrack. But, regardless of how good one's opinion may be, they will NEVER make money in the long run playing small Pick-4 tickets. Of that I am certain.

No problem.

[2 Dollar Bill]

Originally Posted by Scav

Lets all relax, it is 6 days in, I am one ticket away from being up for a while.

Lets visit this once the Hollywood meet is over and anaylze then

In Scav's we trust.... Go Get'em !

[Scav]

5: 4,5
6: 3,4,6
7: 1,2,7,8
8: 3,6

$48

Running total including today's wager: ($331.00)(7)

Note: I probably won't be able to get the TVG announcer late pick four tickets tonight so if anyone is paying attention, please post them. thank you in advance

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Scav

5: 4,5
6: 3,4,6
7: 1,2,7,8
8: 3,6

$48

Running total including today's wager: ($331.00)(7)

Note: I probably won't be able to get the TVG announcer late pick four tickets tonight so if anyone is paying attention, please post them. thank you in advance

Simon
5: 2 4 5 7 8
6: 4
7: 6 7 8
8: 1 3 6
$45

Nick
5: 5 6
6: 2 3 4 7
7: 1 7 8
8: 3 4
$48

[docicu3]

So Nick hits with a ticket that cost less than $50 bucks......I for the small single ticket people!!!

[blackthroatedwind]

Obviously tickets will hit occasionally. But, one in 30 is hardly a great success. It will be interesting to see people's ROIs at the end of the meet.

To me the contest would be better if you had, say, four or five people that actually followed the races at Hollywood, or any track, that made two plays a day.....one for $48 and one for $144. Then, see what the ROIs for the two plays were at the end of the meet. I think with even a mediocre opinion the bigger play would do better over time ( even though both would probably lose ).

[GPK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously tickets will hit occasionally. But, one in 30 is hardly a great success. It will be interesting to see people's ROIs at the end of the meet.

To me the contest would be better if you had, say, four or five people that actually followed the races at Hollywood, or any track, that made two plays a day.....one for $48 and one for $144. Then, see what the ROIs for the two plays were at the end of the meet. I think with even a mediocre opinion the bigger play would do better over time ( even though both would probably lose ).

Im willing to do it for the upcoming Tampa meet. Maybe Bigs and RudeboyElvis will be willing to as well. Not sure who else follows Tampa as religiously as us 3. Maybe Leo could join us as well.

[Rootdog1]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously tickets will hit occasionally. But, one in 30 is hardly a great success. It will be interesting to see people's ROIs at the end of the meet.

To me the contest would be better if you had, say, four or five people that actually followed the races at Hollywood, or any track, that made two plays a day.....one for $48 and one for $144. Then, see what the ROIs for the two plays were at the end of the meet. I think with even a mediocre opinion the bigger play would do better over time ( even though both would probably lose ).

You put my thoughts into words better than I did. Great point.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Obviously tickets will hit occasionally. But, one in 30 is hardly a great success. It will be interesting to see people's ROIs at the end of the meet.

To me the contest would be better if you had, say, four or five people that actually followed the races at Hollywood, or any track, that made two plays a day.....one for $48 and one for $144. Then, see what the ROIs for the two plays were at the end of the meet. I think with even a mediocre opinion the bigger play would do better over time ( even though both would probably lose ).

Always the optimist.....

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GPK

Im willing to do it for the upcoming Tampa meet. Maybe Bigs and RudeboyElvis will be willing to as well. Not sure who else follows Tampa as religiously as us 3. Maybe Leo could join us as well.

I'm in. Big ticket vs. little ticket each day. Do we want to limit the big ticket to $144 (or round it to $150) as Andy suggested?

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

I'm in. Big ticket vs. little ticket each day. Do we want to limit the big ticket to $144 (or round it to $150) as Andy suggested?

I would think limit the small ticket to under $50 and the larger ticket must be at least $150. Im open to any suggestions though..

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by GPK

I would think limit the small ticket to under $50 and the larger ticket must be at least $150. Im open to any suggestions though..

That'll work. Say at least $144 as that is an easy combo to come up with.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bigsmc

That'll work. Say at least $144 as that is an easy combo to come up with.

works for me.


As a side note, im glad we were able to hijack Scavs thread...even if for a little while.

[Scav]

6: 1,3,4,10,11,12
7: 7,11
8: 1,5
9: 3,4

$48