Should Have

[saucon17]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Didn't Rockport Harbor get beaten handily by a third-string Pletcher horse in the Lexington?

NT

Wasn't that the great Coin Silver

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Great horses do great things. Lammtarra won the Epsom Derby in his second career start....off of a seven month layoff at that. I'm not suggesting though that Bernardini would have beaten Barbaro if he had run off of the maiden win. What I was saying is that had things been able to go different and they could have started on him earlier and had more preparation time, I think that Bernardini would have been the one winning the Derby, not Barbaro.

Bernardini wasn't a great horse....and frankly neither was Lamtarra. Both might have proven great but neither did on the racetrack.....and certainly not Bernardini.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Bernardini wasn't a great horse....and frankly neither was Lamtarra. Both might have proven great but neither did on the racetrack.....and certainly not Bernardini.

I won't argue Bernardini. We won't agree on that. But Lammtarra wasn't? I understand that his career was short but how much more brilliant could a horse be? It wasn't like he was winning allowance races either. Winning the Epsom Derby off a seven month layoff, in your second career start, in course record time.....that's a great horse. To follow that up with a King George win over Pentire (Irish Champion, King George winner) and Carnegie (the previous year's Arc winner) was icing on the cake. To follow that up with an Arc win over Freedom Cry (narrowly beaten in the BC Turf) and Swain (two time King George winner, Irish Champion, Coronation Cup) was the final stamp needed. He was winning world class races against world class horses. That he only ran four times was too bad for us but shouldn't be held against him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Look, I really don't know how he ran specifically, and obviously he was an exceptional talent, but I just don't see how greatness can be proclaimed in what was effectively a three race career.

Hell, there are people who act like Ghostzapper wasn't a great and he ran a minimum of six great races.....and ran until he was five. Lamtarra was cheated out of his chance of truly proving his greatness by his owner. It's unfortunate but true.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Lava

IMO she had a great shot at winning, I just dont think SS is all that good.

She certainly could have beaten SS in a 10 furlong race in early May - however, it's a gigantic stretch that she would have beaten him had she run in the '07 Derby...because of the way the race was run and the trip SS got.

Much like Curlin - R2R probably prefers to be outside of horses.

If you look at the '07 Derby - four of the top 5 finishers raced on the rail for a significant portion of the race - only Curlin being the one who never saw it.

As for the turns...I believe they were as follows

Street Sense was rail - rail (1 wide, 1 wide)
Hard Spun was rail - rail
Curlin was 3 wide - 4 wide
Imawildandcrazyguy was rail - 4 wide
Sedgefield was rail - rail.

Of the three rail-rail horses: Hard Spun earned his position - by setting very fast fractions and running hard the whole way. Sedgefield fell into a dream trip but did do some running to secure it. Street Sense passing 17 horses without leaving the rail and ever having a straw in his path was an act of God.

Rags to Riches almost certainly would have had a wider trip than Curlin - or like Curlin, would have been compromised by the massive congestion of quitting horses in the 2-to-5 path from the 1/2 mile pole to the quarter pole.

Look, I have big issues with the popular belief that one path on the turn equals one length. The reason I do is because the wide path is a preferred path to the rail most often. However - throughout the card on Derby day - I thought the rail was fairly decent .. and there was no advantage in being wide.

If Curlin losses 2 lengths in ground loss to SS and HS on the 1st turn - and 3 lengths on the 2nd turn - that's 5 lengths he's spotted the top two finishers.

Taking ground loss out of the equation - Curlin had two incidents that hindered him, the early trouble that Gary Stevens made a big deal about was very minor I thought - getting stuck momentarily behind a wall of tiring horses, while his chief rival got a totally unmolested run inside of him, that was a bigger deal.

It's impossible to quantify Curlin's trip trouble - probably 1 or 2 lengths worth for a normal horse - but for a lightly raced horse who never even had dirt kicked in his face before in his life - that trouble is a little bigger deal.

To be fair to Hard Spun - unlike Curlin and Street Sense - he actually had to work hard early - and he showed gameness having his heels clipped in the stretch and shifting out and gaining on the winner slightly in the final yards.

Basically - it's impossible to say exactly how many, but Curlin gave SEVERAL lengths away to Street Sense in the Derby - and Rags To Riches was VERY likely going to be either wider than Curlin - or about as wide and caught in the big congestion outside of the quarter pole that can happen when the horses racing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th early on all back up sharply enroute to 17th, 19th, and 20th place finishes.

Rags to Riches almost certainly would have been no better than 3rd in the Derby ... and could have run much worse if not rated back early.

[sumitas]

I will go out on a limb and suggest Invasor could have won.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Grand Canyon would have been a 3yo in 1990 along with Unbridled and Summer Squall.

exactly

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I don't know about that. In the same way BTW is saying that Dehere might have had trouble running down the lone speed in 1993, Sunday Silence and EG might have had trouble running down the lone speed of King Glorious in 1989. No doubt that at 10f, it would have taken a huge effort on KG's part but with him having shown he could handle an off track in the Hollywood Futurity, I would have liked my chances going in if I were Hollendorfer and McCarron. Lone speed is a strong equalizer. Winning Colors, War Emblem, Go for Gin were all able to win it when most people expected they wouldn't last. Hard Spun, Lion Heart, Indian Charlie and Peace Rules didn't win but hung in a lot longer than expected.

Saying that he wouldn't have had any chance in the '89 TC races isn't really a knock on KG at all. While I remain highly skeptical of his ability to ever get 10f effectively, the bigger issue is the fact that the crop that year produced two of the best true 10f horses of the last 25 years....and he wasn't one of them.
Do horses like War Emblem sometimes win the Derby as the lone speed? Of course, but it is one thing to do it with Proud Citizen chasing you home, and an altogether different proposition when the two horses trying to get by you are Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

[miraja2]

Am I the only one looking forward to reading the book, The 2007 Kentucky Derby: A Comprehensive Analysis, by The Indomitable DrugS?
I think it will be a good one, but the 600 page length might be a bit daunting for some.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Who are the others that people think would have won it had they made it.

Gen. Duke.. 1957.

Widely acknowledged at Calumet as the best horse they ever bred.. including Citation. Set a 9f FL Derby stakes (and track) record that stood for 40+ years.. Split 4 decisions with Bold Ruler and would have gone off favored in the famed '57 Derby but scratched with a hoof bruise Friday. Developed the wobbles at 4 and had to be put down. One of the greatest tragedies in racing history.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Saying that he wouldn't have had any chance in the '89 TC races isn't really a knock on KG at all. While I remain highly skeptical of his ability to ever get 10f effectively, the bigger issue is the fact that the crop that year produced two of the best true 10f horses of the last 25 years....and he wasn't one of them.
Do horses like War Emblem sometimes win the Derby as the lone speed? Of course, but it is one thing to do it with Proud Citizen chasing you home, and an altogether different proposition when the two horses trying to get by you are Sunday Silence and Easy Goer.

What you say here is absolutely correct. There's almost no question that they would have turned out to be better and more natural 10f runners than KG was. I just feel like KG would have opened up 6-8 on them coming around the turn and that might have been just enough to hold them off.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Look, I really don't know how he ran specifically, and obviously he was an exceptional talent, but I just don't see how greatness can be proclaimed in what was effectively a three race career.

Hell, there are people who act like Ghostzapper wasn't a great and he ran a minimum of six great races.....and ran until he was five. Lamtarra was cheated out of his chance of truly proving his greatness by his owner. It's unfortunate but true.

I understand that sentiment but I don't agree with it. IMO, Ghostzapper was a great horse. Candy Ride was a great horse. Lammtarra was a great horse. I think it's ideal when we have the opportunity to witness greatness for a prolonged period of time. It's ideal when we have the opportunity see many different challenges taken on and overcome by a horse. But for me, the lack of having those opportunities doesn't factor in when I evaluate what I think I've seen. The lack of those opportunities would keep me from voting any of those horses into the hall of fame. The hall of fame, IMO, should be for those horses that separated themselves even from other great horses by doing exceptional things like winning divisional championships in multiple years, winning x% of career starts, being in the money in x% of career starts, winning x number of grade one races. Things like that. But as far as ability, that's a different story. If there was a human sprinter and he only raced 10 times in his life but won an Olympic gold, a world championship gold and set a world record in those 10 starts, he's a great sprinter. For me, greatness is more about ability than accomplishments. Too often, especially when it comes to racing in this era, accomplishments are out of the hands of the horses.

[avance2000]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I understand that sentiment but I don't agree with it. IMO, Ghostzapper was a great horse. Candy Ride was a great horse. Lammtarra was a great horse. I think it's ideal when we have the opportunity to witness greatness for a prolonged period of time. It's ideal when we have the opportunity see many different challenges taken on and overcome by a horse. But for me, the lack of having those opportunities doesn't factor in when I evaluate what I think I've seen. The lack of those opportunities would keep me from voting any of those horses into the hall of fame. The hall of fame, IMO, should be for those horses that separated themselves even from other great horses by doing exceptional things like winning divisional championships in multiple years, winning x% of career starts, being in the money in x% of career starts, winning x number of grade one races. Things like that. But as far as ability, that's a different story. If there was a human sprinter and he only raced 10 times in his life but won an Olympic gold, a world championship gold and set a world record in those 10 starts, he's a great sprinter. For me, greatness is more about ability than accomplishments. Too often, especially when it comes to racing in this era, accomplishments are out of the hands of the horses.

any horse with hands would have to be considered great, no matter what else the animal did.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Am I the only one looking forward to reading the book, The 2007 Kentucky Derby: A Comprehensive Analysis, by The Indomitable DrugS?
I think it will be a good one, but the 600 page length might be a bit daunting for some.

600 pages would just be the chapter covering Street Senses miracle trip.

[horseofcourse]

AP Indy and UD Ghetto without question. No such thing as a miracle in horse racing. Travelling from Portland to Miami in 27 minutes would be considered a "miracle" trip. borel likes the rail. I don't think that's an unknown fact. So orchestrating a trip on the rail which he has always liked to do cannot in any sense be considered a miracle. I would actually consider it a "likely" trip more than a "miracle' trip. Whatever.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Gen. Duke.. 1957.

Widely acknowledged at Calumet as the best horse they ever bred.. including Citation. Set a 9f FL Derby stakes (and track) record that stood for 40+ years.. Split 4 decisions with Bold Ruler and would have gone off favored in the famed '57 Derby but scratched with a hoof bruise Friday. Developed the wobbles at 4 and had to be put down. One of the greatest tragedies in racing history.

Hah! I was going to mention Gen. Duke, too! Imagine being favored over Bold Ruler, Round Table, Gallant Man, and Iron Liege. Gen Duke in that Derby would have probably changed Shoemaker's life for the better, too!

--Dunbar

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by Cardus

29-1 or 32-1 in the Hopeful, as I recall. I was there. First blinkers that day?

I had to consult his PPs...

You have the right race, the right odds and the first time blinkers.. but... it wasnt Montreal Red, it was Wild Escapade. Montreal Red was about 3-5 in the Hopeful that year and finished second...

[southerndutch]

I know this is dating me,but I'm surprised no one has mentioned Hoist The Flag.

Graustark in the 60's.

[MLC]

Sir Gaylord, injured before the 1962 Derby. I don't thing Buckpasser or Dr.Fager ran in their derbies either.