Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[alysheba4]

santa anita could switch back to dirt..........although the CUSION seams to be more comparable to dirt than POLY.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I think the real silliness is making Big Brown the Derby favorite off of one race.....by the way, Colonel John is my top pick at this time. Process of elimination, all the other possible favorites got holes in them too. At least Colonel John has run consistent, albeit on a non-dirt surface.

I thought he had some dirt runs at two?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

agreed. i don't know how to quantify the likelyhood he doesn't handle the surface as anything other than a question mark until he ships in.

you stated it was a gigantic question mark. i took that to mean you don't expect him to handle the surface. your opinion is probably better informed than mine but for my part i'm waiting until i see what he does at the track.

i'm in no way endorsing the horse. i just think labelling "silly" the expectation he could run competetivly was itself silly.

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Mike

Especially since Pyro's connections just stated that if Pyro wins the Derby, he will not go to the BC Classic because it will be on synthetic(someone remind me of the site).

Colonel John is a very conservative safe pick, I believe, without alot of negatives(or positives, for that matter) who might be 6-1. It's a pick for unimaginative handicappers(lol)

If Pyro wins the Derby his connections better worry more about the Preakness than the Classic.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

see what i mean about the better informed part?

[pick4]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Not saying it wasn't a mistake. I think Court Vision might quite possibly be the slowest Derby horse of all time but when we are talking the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby I do think it needs to be factored in. I'm just seeing underwhelming evidence as to why I should play this horse and tons of reason to play against him.

If you believe Court Vision is the slowest Derby horse ever it's obvious that you are not familiar with Saarland.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horse...ley-column.htm

ESPN had a reporter following this slug throughout the prep races.
This is only a link with early April doings of this horse.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print...253&type=story

[hi_im_god]

i know there'd be no dirt kicked back in his face but why wouldn't they want to give him a work over the track?

any insight to what the trainer is thinking?

Well I thought he had run on dirt.

All his races have been very consistent.
He looks very relaxed and seems to find
ways not to get into difficult positions. No panic,
very professional. All around solid performer so
far, and more distance is good. Plenty of speed
to set him up it looks like. I think he can handle
being in a number in the pack spots behind the
leaders.

I dont see a more consistent horse.
Except 3 races with Big Brown.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i know there'd be no dirt kicked back in his face but why wouldn't they want to give him a work over the track?

any insight to what the trainer is thinking?

Says he just wants to keep him in same surrounding as long as possible. Probablty thinks that 1 work over track wont make a difference.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by pick4

If you believe Court Vision is the slowest Derby horse ever it's obvious that you are not familiar with Saarland.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horse...ley-column.htm

ESPN had a reporter following this slug throughout the prep races.
This is only a link with early April doings of this horse.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print...253&type=story

Saarland had a 99 and 95 Beyer going into the Derby. That is a far cry from Court Vision whose career high is a 90. I can't imagine there have been many Derby horses in history to have a lower career high Beyer.

[SniperSB23]

I just checked Derby PPs back to 2003. There was one horse slower than Court Vision and that was Seaside Retreat who went into the Derby with a career high Beyer of 85. The next closest to as woefully slow as Court Vision was Bwana Bull with a career high of 91.

[mclem10011]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He is not going to even work at Churchill so we wont even have that to try to use. Not that a work would tell you whether a horse can handle the track in a race anyway.

Chuck does that make sense, from a trainers POV? Wouldn't you want to see how he works at least once, or eveen just a breeze to see even any signals of how he may handle it on race day?

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.

since when does the highest beyer mean the horse is going to win. i laugh at that crap. its good for me though cause people bet that way all the time. furthurmore the beyers for the synthetic are a line of garbage anyway, especially at SA. is there any one out there that actually handicaps races anymore ? the numbers are fine but if you are betting just based on that ,well, you are missing alot of value out there . colonel john is not my top pick , but i like him. the race is loaded with speed . if it does not rain a closer will probably win. there will be horses winging out there at a fast pace and they have no shot, ( it happens ALMOST every year). its not rocket science or speed figs that see this race almost always falls apart at the end . and here comes the strong fininsher to clean up the leftovers, i could care less what his beyers were . hes won some major preps, has a great trainer that would not show up for nothing . most importantly has a running style that takes about 7 out of 10 kentucky derbies. if people could win just by betting the highest beyer figs why aren't they quitting their jobs ?

[cmorioles]

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

He is very live because of

1)the lack of talent in the field
2) his seasoning,
3) his pedigree for dirt
4) right running style for derby
5) and most importantly he appears to be one of the few without any question about the 10f distance.

If he puts in a big work on the churchill strip I would think he would be the horse to beat. I just don't see how you can take less than 5-1 on any horse in this field, especially a horse with 2 career dirt races (big brown) or a horse with no career dirt races (colonel john). I will take Cool Coal Man at a nice price.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Beyers are fine on sythetic tracks when comparing them to other synthetic numbers. They are not, however, fine when comparing them to dirt numbers.

Thanks for saying this, it seems to be overlooked by most writers when discussing byers in these Triple Crown races when comparing the figs to past years same race figs on dirt


All the synth figs for 2 and 3 year olds are correspondingly low

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Mike

Thanks for saying this, it seems to be overlooked by most writers when discussing byers in these Triple Crown races when comparing the figs to past years same race figs on dirt


All the synth figs for 2 and 3 year olds are correspondingly low

it does make it hard to handicap, what is a 90 synthetic at santa anita really worth 100 on dirt, or visa versa, horse runs 100 beyer at aqu ships to santa anita, should we give him a 90 and judge him to the other synthetic numbers the horses have he is going against? This derby preps and other stake races have certainly opened some eyes into how the figures are being made. Zenyatta looked visually impressive at santa anita yet kept running a slow figure, she ships and runs just as impressive as before and gets a 104? How did she get so fast, or did she and there is a problem with the figures, if figures are a way to determine raw ability?

The synthetics make it hard to figure but the trend right now is that the CA horses are doing quite well against the east coast horses. Two big wins in Arkansas and another today even though it was on polytrack. If they get a great work in at Churchill it would be easy to make the case for them.

The one thing you can't really argue with is that the east coast horses are very slow this year.

I think the two Jones fillies might be better than all of them except Big Brown and he is very vulnerable in the derby.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I just checked Derby PPs back to 2003. There was one horse slower than Court Vision and that was Seaside Retreat who went into the Derby with a career high Beyer of 85. The next closest to as woefully slow as Court Vision was Bwana Bull with a career high of 91.

What about Anak Nakal?? Has he reached 90 yet?