Eight Belles post # prediction thread

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Classic Derby Trail. Where do we find all these posters that offer nothing of substance yet feel the need to post in some ridiculous "unique" style?

tbred times in my (lower) case.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I'm not sure i follow your logic. How exactly do you know how stout this horse is considering she has never even run 1 1/8 let alone 1 1/4? When a $150k stallion who has stood for 10 years hasnt had a single on the board finish in the TC series, that says plenty about any offspring of that sire.

She may have zero shot...but I don't think if I had a horse I would not run her in a race simply because she was an "Unbridled's Song". She may not be "stout" but she has not exactly been babied, I'm pretty sure she's gone to the post more than any other "colt" in the field and although not going 9f ever, she has gone more than 8f in 5 of her starts and at least 8f in 8 of her 9 starts. The Derby will be her 10th start...in today's form of "racing" that is pretty stout I think. What injury problems has she had in those 9 starts?? She's run triple the races than the favorite in the race. Her numbers are not too bad compared to the rest of the field, and in all honesty better than most.

My only concern is she has not raced against the boys and she has tracked pretty slow paces in her last two wins with ideal setups. Don't know how they'll place her in a fast pace scenario.

I simply think to not run in a race becuase of who your sire is doesn't make a lot of sense. AT one time Bold Ruler's couldn't get 10f or something of that sort.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

She may have zero shot...but I don't think if I had a horse I would not run her in a race simply because she was an "Unbridled's Song". She may not be "stout" but she has not exactly been babied, I'm pretty sure she's gone to the post more than any other "colt" in the field and although not going 9f ever, she has gone more than 8f in 5 of her starts and at least 8f in 8 of her 9 starts. The Derby will be her 10th start...in today's form of "racing" that is pretty stout I think. What injury problems has she had in those 9 starts?? She's run triple the races than the favorite in the race. Her numbers are not too bad compared to the rest of the field, and in all honesty better than most.

My only concern is she has not raced against the boys and she has tracked pretty slow paces in her last two wins with ideal setups. Don't know how they'll place her in a fast pace scenario.

I simply think to not run in a race becuase of who your sire is doesn't make a lot of sense. AT one time Bold Ruler's couldn't get 10f or something of that sort.

Since when does the number of times a horse runs have anything to do with their ability to run a given distance? I think asking your horse to do something that it is not really made to do doesnt make a lot of sense.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Since when does the number of times a horse runs have anything to do with their ability to run a given distance? I think asking your horse to do something that it is not really made to do doesnt make a lot of sense.

the number of routes has to matter. so you would say a horse by Distorted Humor making his route debut in the derby would be more likely to get the 10F distance than Eight Belles who has routed 7 times just because she is by UBS?

she may not be good enough to win but she does not run like a horse that is maxed out for distance, or like most other Unbridled Song offspring for that matter. in every race she runs evenly and finishes very strong. once they have 8-9 races on display, the race record tells me far more about what to expect than looking at the breeding.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Since when does the number of times a horse runs have anything to do with their ability to run a given distance? I think asking your horse to do something that it is not really made to do doesnt make a lot of sense.

Her number of times running has nothing to do with her ability to get a given distance. You were basing your assessment strictly on her sire. I know her sire was fragile and his offspring have been known to be fragile. She doesn't appear to be fragile due to her continual running the last 7 months. I have read about Secretariat...his sire was alleged to not produce distance running offspring at one time either. I don't know how big a thing that was at that time, but I know people were talking about it. I honestly don't know if Eight Belles can finish in the money or will run up the track...but horses have been known once in awhile to outrun their "pedigree"...(Smarty Jones.) I'm not sure how many horses in today's breeding escapades are really made to go 10f any more than Eight Belles is. I think the majority of the horses in the Derby are being asked to do something they're not really made to do.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i agree. dumb move by connections. "derby fever" and all the talk of the weak field. she beat 3 horses last time out and the fractions were slow. hope she makes it or it might be the last time she races. i've seen this disaster played out before, unfortunately

why do they run them in these races ?

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

why do they run them in these races ?

because they can win...same as the others. no comments needed from the peanut gallery now.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

why do they run them in these races ?

Well, I asked before logging on just how long it would take for someone to blame running her in the Derby for what happened.

Apparently, being a complete idiot only takes a few minutes.

A sad, freak incident that could have happened in the slop yesterday too.

Seemingly boasting about your prediction of a dead horse? You are one classy ****, eh?

We'll see how this story unfolds in the upcoming days.

[smuthg]

she beat the FU*K out of 18 boys.... no more she doesn't belong or didn't belong...

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Well, I asked before logging on just how long it would take for someone to blame running her in the Derby for what happened.

Apparently, being a complete idiot only takes a few minutes.

A sad, freak incident that could have happened in the slop yesterday too.

Seemingly boasting about your prediction of a dead horse? You are one classy ****, eh?

yeah right , what happened to rags to riches, lady secret, ruffian and winning colors . it was a freak accident that they died or had shorten, less effective careers? why do you think i even said anything, i've seen this bs before . thats why. yeah she beat the hell out of them... for what ? the poor horse had not even been over 8 1/2 furlongs and they run her 10 vs the boys real smart. when do you think she hurt herself, coming out of the gate. just because you can do something does not mean you should. i'm an idiot because i said something days ago? like i said i've seen this crap before , thats why i said something, its called ego and greed. tell me mr. knowitall does that help racing when the whole country sees something like that ? especially people that don't follow the game . my buddies 10 year old daughter was asking what happened.

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah right , what happened to rags to riches, lady secret, ruffian and winning colors . it was a freak accident that they died or had shorten, less effective careers? why do you think i even said anything, i've seen this bs before . thats why. yeah she beat the hell out of them... for what ? the poor horse had not even been 8 furlongs and they run her 10 vs the boys real smart. when do you think she hurt herself, coming out of the gate. just because you can do something does not mean you should. i'm an idiot because i said something days ago? no like i said i've seen this crap before , its called ego and greed. tell me mr. knowitall does that help racing when the whole country sees something like that ? especially people that don't follow the game . my buddies 10 year old daughter was asking what happened.

she'd run over 8 furlongs 5 times in her career...more races than some had total races run at this point. I think you meant 9 furlongs perhaps. Greed is what racing is about. People generally want to make money. Breakdowns do occur. Even boys against boys often times. It is a part of horse racing.

[johnny pinwheel]

sorry i meant 8 1/2, still it just is not right . that horse would of been a champion amoung her own kind . but i'm a class less idiot because i have the horses well being as a first priority .....sorry. you are right its dangerous but why take these kinds of chances. i'll gaurantee some folks will never watch or bet again

[horseofcourse]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

sorry i meant 8 1/2, still it just is not right . that horse would of been a champion amoung her own kind . but i'm a class less idiot because i have the horses well being as a first priority .....sorry. you are right its dangerous but why take these kinds of chances. i'll gaurantee some folks will never watch or bet again

I don't know much about horse structure of legs or physiology of the horse. What for the life of me I don't understand in these discussions that always come up when this happens is how is it more stressful for a filly to say run 1:50 for 9f and winning by 1 length against girls than running 1:50 for 9f and losing by 2 lengths against boys? I honestly don't see how one event is different than the other. I think running period is stressful to a thoroughbred. I saw Go For Wand break down against her own sex...I saw Pine Island break down against her own sex. I saw Fleet Indian break down against her own sex. None of the boys had run 10f either and most had only run 9f one single time. It isn't stressful for them?? I honestly don't get your argument too much.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

yeah right , what happened to rags to riches, lady secret, ruffian and winning colors . it was a freak accident that they died or had shorten, less effective careers? why do you think i even said anything, i've seen this bs before . thats why. yeah she beat the hell out of them... for what ? the poor horse had not even been over 8 1/2 furlongs and they run her 10 vs the boys real smart. when do you think she hurt herself, coming out of the gate. just because you can do something does not mean you should. i'm an idiot because i said something days ago? like i said i've seen this crap before , thats why i said something, its called ego and greed. tell me mr. knowitall does that help racing when the whole country sees something like that ? especially people that don't follow the game . my buddies 10 year old daughter was asking what happened.

rags was injured supposedly in her next race after the belmont, vs fillies. lady's secret had a long and succesful career, as did winning colors who ran all season at three, and ran again at four. of the four you mentioned, only ruffian lost her life vs boys-and she broke down very early in that race, had nothing to do with any hard running or the like.
breaking down, sadly, is a part of the sport. but it's not separated by gender, it doesn't happen more often when a filly faces colts.
for you to suggest that eight belles broke down only because she was in a race vs males is fallacious and utterly ridiculous. she beat every colt but one today, she proved she belonged.
you do nothing but detract from her accomplishments by suggesting she couldn't handle the racing conditions simply because she's a female.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

why do they run them in these races ?

Go F*CK yourself dude. She ran her eyeballs out, just like I said she would. The fact that she broke down a QUARTER MILE AFTER THE WIRE had nothing to do with whether she was facing boys at 10F or 6F against crappy competition. She came through the stretch strong and straight, and ran an absolutely MONSTER race to run 2nd.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

she'd run over 8 furlongs 5 times in her career...more races than some had total races run at this point. I think you meant 9 furlongs perhaps. Greed is what racing is about. People generally want to make money. Breakdowns do occur. Even boys against boys often times. It is a part of horse racing.

And I'm still unsure of why it matters anyway.

What about the horses who had run 1 1/8 just a single time?

Johnny would have you believe that the fact that they prepped for an additional six or seven seconds is what saved them from sure catastrophe today.

You don't get to point to the distance and the distances she had run, when the longest any colt in the race had run was a sixteenth of a mile further than her.

I suppose next time a 2 year old breaks down at five furlongs after running four furlongs the previous time out, Johnny will be up in arms wondering why they didn't prep him at 4 1/2.

Inane. Bullshit.

[Cajungator26]

What the f*ck ever ... Churchill looked like a f*cking dragstrip. Unbridled's Song throws fragile horses and the condition of the track did her no favors. What a horrible ending to the Derby.

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Listen, the post is already bold and italicized. Now you want it to make sense too?
I think that is asking a bit much.

>>>>>

[HaloWishingwell]

Originally Posted by Danzig

you may be right.

>>>>