|
|
 |
|
#41
07-01-2008, 12:39 PM
|
|||
|
|||
My 2 cents...
1) Sinister - assuming the price is there (and based on most of the comments so far, I'm figuring it will be) I will make him my top selection. Can fire fresh (as seen in his sparkling debut beating 11 home) and is 2-2 over the CD surface. Lastly, he is a half a length shy of being undefeated in 1 turn sprints. There is enough speed signed on to make the only multiple winner in the field a big threat to catch them late. By the way, he is a scary spitting image of his Daddy, who I have a soft spot for since I bet him at Belmont in the BC Juvie. 2) War Ruler - he a tough one to figure as he was able to take advantage of wicked early fractions AND a soft field in his last, while adding blinkers. So, which one was it? Probably a combo of both, and Julien chooses him over the 1. Not a fan of MClm to nw1x but Niobrara's come back victory sells the 50k seller as better than it appears on paper. Has to be kept in the mix. 3) Coach Ryan - Amoss trainee's biggest appeal are the connections. Only beat 4 home in his MClm victory last out and couldn't have had a better trip. Cut back to 7f appealing but the connections will insure an underlay. Leaving out. 4) Niobara - stepped up last time to higher tag and came away with the victory. Would take him over War Ruler in the rematch based on his victory at today's 7f. But still like others more. 5) E Z Phone Home - most seasoned horse has had trouble finding the cameraman since debut maiden breaker at Belmont at a 2YO. Versitale sort can run on the lead, or stalk, but hasn't done his best running when it counts. 6) Dr. Nick - 4th jock in 4th career race. Will be overbet based on his Grade 3 placing 2 back, but his return effort left much to be desired. 7) Knock Out Cat - Assmussen's $410K yearling purchase endured a troubled trip in debut win over track. Short price expected for the runner with the lowest speed figure in the field. Not for me. 8) Siena Canyon - might be the longest shot in the field. Has never been 1st across the finish line and can't find a reason why that will change today. 9) Fit For A Fight - might have been short last time out after 11 month layoff at 50-1. Now asked to go longer today than ever before. Will be forwardly placed but not expecting him to be around late. 10) The Darp - it could be argued his best effort was his 2nd place finish over this track in November as he obviously didn't face much at 4-5 in his maiden breaker. Subsequently faced the likes of Pyro, Z Fortune and Visionaire early in his 3YO campaign. The back to back layoffs are cause for concern, but his class could put him there at the wire. I'll go with this as my top 4: Sinister, The Darp, Niobrara and War Ruler.
__________________
"I don't need nice horses at Philly, just ones with conditions."---Cannon Shell 
|
|
#42
07-01-2008, 12:50 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
My pick in this one would be COACH RYAN. I think he could sit a stalk and pounce trip. The cutback to 7 panels could also aid him as he'll be charging home, roping in the front runners. The fact that a red hot Amoss is his conditioner can only bode well, 3rd off the positive trainer switch. Looking for an improve off of his last two over this strip and his numbers are headed that way.
One horse I wouldnt touch with an enemies money is THE DARP. If he's good enough, I'll let him beat me, but at no way would I touch him at his expected low odds. I know he has a big class edge over the field, but when a horse loses some of his early footing just as he has, its usually not a good sign. Again, he takes a class plunge and maybe the freshening did him well, but I am inclined to look elsewhere. TRI- Coach Ryan, Sinister, and War Ruler. Add Niobrara for the quad.
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
|
|
#43
07-01-2008, 03:04 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
|
|
#44
07-01-2008, 04:11 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Very on topic...I'm sitting here after having a tooth pulled today. Not a big deal but the Doctor prescribed 20 pills of Vicodin. Now I would not normally even take them, but I have no plans for the day so I figure why not.
well... Kicking back with a monster buzz..I think I need to go to rehab cause I like these pills. anyway.. As far as the race goes, I see it this way: Too much early speed will make way from off the pace. 1. Knock Out Cat - Don't think he was even asked until he was swung out from rail and should like extra distance 2. The Carp...opps Darp - In spot he should handle although I hear what Chuck said about time off and work pattern 3. Coach Ryan - Impressive last Quote:
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
|
|
#45
07-01-2008, 05:51 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
A brief pedigree handicap. gsv=genetic strength value from pedigreequery.com
Sinister Repent-Hi Tech Honeycomb/Meadow Monster. di 1.67, gsv 56.09...features a 4x5 Northern Dancer. He is the first foal by his mare from an average family. Former sire Wall Street Dancer is from the immediate family. War Ruler Silver Deputy-Mostbeautifulsound/Miswaki. di 3.57, gsv 68.94...3x3 Mr Prospector. 4x4x5 Raise A Native. 1/2 to 4 yr old Mostbeautifulstorm $113,016. 3rd dam Mrs Revere banked over $400k. A credible, if not spectacular family. Coach Ryan Broad Brush-Age of Silver/Silver Deputy. di 3.00, gsv 70.74...this fella is outcrossed to x2 Northern Dancer in his mare. Broad Brush has 4x4 Turn-To. 11 lines of Plucky Liege adds some zip. His mare has produced some winners. None of note. 2nd dam Timely Times foaled Timely Broad $342,351 by sire, you guessed it, Broad Brush. Niobrara Yonaguska-Cross River/Virginia Rapids. di 4.33 gsv 57.90... 5 gen outcross. Family is very average. E Z Phone Home Phone Trick-Lady Discreet/Boundary. di 3.57 gsv 62.90...He has a potent 4x5 Nearctic. first foal by dam. Lady Discreet is x2 to Northern Dancer, Buckpasser, Damascus. They are all outcrossed by the sire. 2nd dam is Alabama Stakes winner and dam of Discreet Cat, Pretty Discreet. The family is strong. Dr Nick Authenticate (unraced $3.3mil Padua purchase)-La Riviera/Affirmed. di 2.50, gsv 63.44. 4x4x5 Raise A Native. 1/2 to minor stakes placed Frenchglen. Pretty solid family. Knock Out Cat Giants Causeway-T K O Lady/Two Punch. di 3.57 gsv 63.88... 5 gen outcross. Storm Cat, Mr Prospector cross. 1/2 to The Ladys Groom $424,183. Many gens of the family are from England and Argentina. The last two dams from the US show some promise. Siena Canyon Langfuhr-Insight/Kris S. di 1.93, gsv 70.48...3x5 Northern Dancer. This does support Langfuhr's 4x4 Nearctic. Nearctic sired Northern Dancer. The 2 Northern Dancers and 3 Nearctics pack a punch in this pedigree but the family is still trying to establish itself. Fit For A Fight Silver Charm-Heir To The Queen/King of Kings. di 1.11 gsv 63.63...5 gen outcross. A pedigree unlike most others. There is a 3x6 Poker , broodmare sire of Silver Charm. 1st foal for dam. 3rd dam foaled sire Explosive Bid. Overall, the family is a work in progress. The Darp Proud Citizen-Silver Savior/Silver Deputy. di 2.50 gsv 61.77...3x4 Mr Prospector. 2nd foal by Silver Savior. 2nd dam Sly Charmer foaled Sly Maid dam of millionaress Maryfield, Eclipse champion sprinter. This is a strong family. I'll go with E Z Phone home and The Darp . Longshots Coach Ryan, Siena Canyon. Last edited by sumitas : 07-02-2008 at 12:10 AM.
|
|
#46
07-01-2008, 06:04 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Some shoot me. Please.
|
|
#47
07-01-2008, 06:07 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
I'll send you one of my vicoden,,,,no way you read it or care for that matter
Quote:
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
|
|
#48
07-01-2008, 07:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
no toothache or vicodin, but here goes anyway.
Sinister – last win looked like it was aided by favorable trip, don’t like his chances facing better and coming from far out of it from the rail. War Ruler – raced much better with blinkers in what looks like a solid maiden claimer (third place horse was clear by 10). Raced wide and looked good doing it. Taken a month to come back but shows weekly maintenance breezes and Leparoux back to ride for the fourth time. Top contender. Coach Ryan – another coming out of winning maiden claimer effort, patiently ridden by Borel who was denied the rail but altered course late and made a wide successful rally. Think he factors on the cutback. Niobrara – won slow paced maiden claimer, think he is not ready for these. E Z Phone Home – nine straight times lost position from second call to the finish. Will factor early as always but destined to finish third or fourth at best. Dr. Nick – took money in comebacker but didn’t run well. Since he won last year at first asking I think there may be problems here. Pass. Knock Out Cat – Won at first asking but not wowed by the figures or how it looked. Do not expect that he can win right back. Siena Canyon – got put up for the win which came back with a solid figure. Might be around until very late. Fit For a Fight – made nice middle move in ALW company in last after long break. Same effort might factor here but concerned with second race after long layoff, big effort, not much rest and no recent works. Not sure what to make of him but the horse has fired every time. The Darp – has the credentials to take this, I think the cutback to seven furlongs on dirt will suit him well. Throw out the two poly races and his race record is solid compared to others in here. With that said, I’m not sure that he’s ready to fire big and might not be ready to beat horses with recent sharp form. Wouldn’t be a surprise but guessing that he needs one. Pass tomorrow. Prediction: 1) War Ruler 2) Fit For A Fight 3) Coach Ryan 4) Siena Canyon 5) E Z Phone Home
|
|
#49
07-01-2008, 11:27 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
knockout cat
war ruler and coach ryan next best
|
|
#50
07-01-2008, 11:42 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
CD 7F Track Profile - track has been relatively unkind to front runners over the last month but over the last year it has been fair. The rail and extreme outside post have underperformed a bit over the year and it is especially bad in 10+ horse fields where the outside post is 0 for 16. Other post positions are fair.
Sinister 8-1 - I think his last figure is a bit suspect since it came on a drying out track. The track seemed to favor closers early in the card and became more speed favoring as the track dried. The effort wasn't terrible, broke slow, saved ground and swung wide and nearly got carried into the stands by the bearing out front runners. The short layoff is a concern as I wonder how much the effort set him back. Add to that a tough post and that he seems to close from the clouds and I will pass. War Ruler 6-1 - Can't completely overlook that he comes out of a maiden claimer but last race was very impressive. Blinkers woke the horse up and he was wide the entire trip and pulled away late from the favored speed. Won against the track bias that day as speed seemed to hold very well. Julien sticks and extra distance shouldn't hurt. Contender. Coach Ryan 8-1 - Amoss winning almost everything so have to strongly consider. Got a very nice ground saving trip last out but wasn't able to get clear until late. Accelerated very nicely when clear. It was a small field with some suspect entries though. Improving pattern and with that trainer he may take another step forward. Consider for exotics. Niobrara 10-1 - Was 1.75 lengths back of War Ruler two back and had no excuses. That performance was maybe more impressive than his winning effort last out where he raced 3 wide stalking slow fractions in a bad maiden claimer. Would have to improve big to be a contender and with 3 races since May 11th I don't see it. Don't like the lack of workouts either. Toss. EZ Phone Home 6-1 - Tired at a mile last out but got no help from Elvis who doesn't believe in saving ground. Two back Kent gave the horse no chance hustling him to the front and dueling the entire way. Three back was best effort but still not enough. Cutback is a little interesting but horse has even running style and doesn't seem to pass much. He won't lead here. Consider underneath but tossing as a win contender. Dr. Nick 12-1 - Yeesh look at those layoff lines. Faced some classy horses as a 2yo. Last out wasn't hopeless, made a small move on the turn and then passed tired ones in the stretch. Horse probably needed one and should improve here but doubtful that it is enough. If he gets completely lost on the board I could see taking a small stab, maybe underneath. Toss as win contender. Knock Out Cat 5-1 - Interesting trip in debut. Got the perfect setup as he stayed behind the speed horses who went out in blazing fractions. Rail opened up in stretch but horse had no interest and ended up having to check to get outside. Ran green and could obviously use one. 2nd time starter is one of my favorite angles and there could be big improvement considering connections and pedigree. Certainly a contender but I don't want at too short a price. Siena Canyon 12-1 - Last race was pretty impressive. Caught a flyer from the gate, settled 3 wide and was very game down the stretch. Bumped hard and deservedly moved up. That race wasn't that fast and will need to move up again. Trainer at 29% for the meet. Very interesting, definitely a sleeper. Fit For A Fight 9-2 - The 9/2 line is a joke. Horse was 2nd at 50-1 last out but looked like a drunk driver coming down the stretch bearing out and weaving all over the lane. Long layoff before last and no works between. Might get the front but won't last long. Toss. The Darp 7-2 - Certainly comes out of good races but coming off another layoff it is doubtful the horse will be geared for best effort. Combine the outside post and poor odds and this is a horse who I let beat me. Toss. Win Contenders: 1. War Ruler 2. Knock Out Cat Sleeper: Siena Canyon Include Underneath: Coach Ryan
|
|
#51
07-02-2008, 11:16 AM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Horse for course........
Love to see all the analysis on a very interesting race........many comments will have been stated elsewhere but here's where I'm going.
Sinister 8-1 - I'm a sucker for deep closers at Churchill and this guy seems to fit the bill. There should be a nice pace to run at and I like his two wins right here at CD. Think the rail shouldn't be a problem as he will save ground into the turn then swing out in the stretch. He's a winner that has beat winners and nobody else in here can say that. He's raced once a month since November and this is his first freshening. Three fairly soft maintenance drills in June coming up to this and he does appear to be the type who will not be rank with his running style. He broke his maiden at first asking for $50,000 as opposed to War Ruler and Coach Ryan which took a few efforts to do it. Disappointed LEPAROUX goes with War Ruler but hope a 'hungry' LANERIE gets the job done. My preferred wagering method is to find a 'key' horse then go top and bottom in exactas. I like: 1 X 2-3-4-7-10 and 2-3-4-7-10 X 1
__________________
A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
|
|
#53
07-02-2008, 04:23 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Steve,
You never did any analysis? Your doing the show now, so I guess no thoughts from you. How about some picks?
__________________
"I don't need nice horses at Philly, just ones with conditions."---Cannon Shell
|
|
#54
07-02-2008, 05:14 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
the chart
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...070208USA8.pdf 3,10,1 $140 ex $1,500 tri I'd say that overall there was a lot of direction in this thread to hit the ex. Nice thread all. Last edited by sumitas : 07-02-2008 at 05:42 PM.
|
|
#55
07-02-2008, 06:21 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
|
|
#56
07-02-2008, 06:26 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Quote:
Nice call to you as well.
|
|
#57
07-02-2008, 06:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
My top 4 picks finished 2nd,3rd,4th and 7th.
Tom Amoss is a horse whisperer.
|
|
#59
07-02-2008, 06:36 PM
|
||||
|
||||
|
Just saw the results..should have boxed my three choices..$140 wow!
Good work and interesting perspective from all...let's do it again! Spyder
__________________
Don't sweat the petty things and don't pet the sweaty things.
|
|
#60
07-02-2008, 07:39 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Quote:
Coach Ryan, The Darp, Sinister, War Ruler = $10K+ WOW. And as was pointed out, $27.20, $12.40, $8.80 to show for Coach Ryan who had tremendous support on this thread. $8 to show for Sinister. There was money jumping off the pages. I just noticed on pedigreequery that Coach Ryan was gelded (when?). That was something we could have explored more. Darn... A great betting race to pick by Steve. Last edited by sumitas : 07-02-2008 at 07:56 PM.
|
Linear Mode
