russia vs georgia

[Cannon Shell]

What difference does it make what GW said about Putin 6 or 7 years ago? What exactly is he supposed to say when th guy is standing right there and just opened his country to western investment? "Hey the dude is KGB, he is going to screw us eventually so lets invade now?"

The fact is that Putin is dangerous and there is nothing that GW or anybody else can do to change this or change the fact that the Russians have been pissed off for a long time and want to regain their position of power? We didnt put him in place, Russia isnt some third world country that others can control. They are a nuclear power with a lot of money, natural resources, bombs, soldiers and ties with bad guys that want to hurt us. Hell we may wind up allies with China before this whole thing is over. That is not exactly a regime without blood on their hnds.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by pgardn

If they wish to become a the world's version of Saudi Arabia.
Import everything. Export one thing.

The Saudi economy is not exactly a model of distress

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The Saudi economy is not exactly a model of distress

Not now.

I am obviously not an economist but it seems having a
diverse economy would be desired long term. Especially with a country
like Russia, its not exactly a large desert.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What difference does it make what GW said about Putin 6 or 7 years ago? What exactly is he supposed to say when th guy is standing right there and just opened his country to western investment? "Hey the dude is KGB, he is going to screw us eventually so lets invade now?"

The fact is that Putin is dangerous and there is nothing that GW or anybody else can do to change this or change the fact that the Russians have been pissed off for a long time and want to regain their position of power? We didnt put him in place, Russia isnt some third world country that others can control. They are a nuclear power with a lot of money, natural resources, bombs, soldiers and ties with bad guys that want to hurt us. Hell we may wind up allies with China before this whole thing is over. That is not exactly a regime without blood on their hnds.

i gave up political astrology years ago but if someone made me pick, i'd say a us-russian alliance opposed to a chinese superpower was more likely.

let's check in on whatever replaces the internet in 20 years.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

What difference does it make what GW said about Putin 6 or 7 years ago? What exactly is he supposed to say when th guy is standing right there and just opened his country to western investment? "Hey the dude is KGB, he is going to screw us eventually so lets invade now?"

The fact is that Putin is dangerous and there is nothing that GW or anybody else can do to change this or change the fact that the Russians have been pissed off for a long time and want to regain their position of power? We didnt put him in place, Russia isnt some third world country that others can control. They are a nuclear power with a lot of money, natural resources, bombs, soldiers and ties with bad guys that want to hurt us. Hell we may wind up allies with China before this whole thing is over. That is not exactly a regime without blood on their hnds.

Oh but there was a time when we had a lot to say about Putin.
Giving him the international recognition and backing when others
in Russia were vying for power was a horrible miscalculation. WE and
other Western countries evaluated leadership when it was up for grabs
and may have got it horribly wrong.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Not now.

I am obviously not an economist but it seems having a
diverse economy would be desired long term. Especially with a country
like Russia, its not exactly a large desert.

Most of Russia is uninhabitated. they have natural resources, lots and lots of them. The problems they have are getting them from point A to point b. They are never going to have a robust economy simply because the govt is never going to give up the tight hold they have. It is the russian way. Not to mention the country is too vast and too large to ever be like a modern western economy. They want the southern breakaways back because they have resources and are a lot closer to delivery than Siberia.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

i gave up political astrology years ago but if someone made me pick, i'd say a us-russian alliance opposed to a chinese superpower was more likely.

let's check in on whatever replaces the internet in 20 years.

The Chinese aint real friendly with Russia and they need oil.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The Chinese aint real friendly with Russia and they need oil.

right.

all the more reason for us to pal up with a supplier.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Most of Russia is uninhabitated. they have natural resources, lots and lots of them. The problems they have are getting them from point A to point b. They are never going to have a robust economy simply because the govt is never going to give up the tight hold they have. It is the russian way. Not to mention the country is too vast and too large to ever be like a modern western economy. They want the southern breakaways back because they have resources and are a lot closer to delivery than Siberia.

Their history does seem to be one that desires the strong man.

I have trouble accepting that a country this big cannot feed itself.
Railroads are not exactly new inventions.

The above must be why their dissidents that have seen large
Westernized societies like ours get so pissed yet they hate our
selfishness. Lots of their intellectuals that get tossed write about
these ambivalent feelings.

[hi_im_god]

anyone want to bet that if we let the georgian leadership decide how this ends, the cockroaches win? <----(not an analogy)

little countries can be badly led and the consequences are little. big countries need adults in charge.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

right.

all the more reason for us to pal up with a supplier.

They dont need us and we are too far away for them to supply us with much. Scary thought is if they strike a deal with the Chinese

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

They dont need us and we are too far away for them to supply us with much. Scary thought is if they strike a deal with the Chinese

oil is a global market. it doesn't matter who you sell it to. the chinese can buy all the russian oil and all that means is there is more saudi oil available. the global price is the same.

unless you think the russians have the last drop of oil, proximity is meaningless.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

oil is a global market. it doesn't matter who you sell it to. the chinese can buy all the russian oil and all that means is there is more saudi oil available. the global price is the same.

unless you think the russians have the last drop of oil, proximity is meaningless.

That is a simple view however the real world is more complex. Chinas demand for oil is through the roof and a direct pipeline to Daqing is already in the works. The Russians dont have much refining capability but the chinese have plenty of money to build refineries. That alone means the Chinese will be paying less. Since Russia isnt a member of Opec they can produce what they want and sell it at whatever price they deem fit. If Chinese demand continues to rise, in theory they can buy the same amount of Saudi oil they are now and get the rest from Russia. Obviously if they stopped buying OPEC oil it would have an effect but they will never totally depend on the Russians and I dont believe that the Russians can produce nearly enough. But I do know that if China is a big customer and Russia is providing a vast amount of oil that those two are more likely to join forces than with us.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

That is a simple view however the real world is more complex. Chinas demand for oil is through the roof and a direct pipeline to Daqing is already in the works. The Russians dont have much refining capability but the chinese have plenty of money to build refineries. That alone means the Chinese will be paying less. Since Russia isnt a member of Opec they can produce what they want and sell it at whatever price they deem fit. If Chinese demand continues to rise, in theory they can buy the same amount of Saudi oil they are now and get the rest from Russia. Obviously if they stopped buying OPEC oil it would have an effect but they will never totally depend on the Russians and I dont believe that the Russians can produce nearly enough. But I do know that if China is a big customer and Russia is providing a vast amount of oil that those two are more likely to join forces than with us.

"That is a simple view however the real world is more complex."

simple is usually right.

"The Russians dont have much refining capability but the chinese have plenty of money to build refineries. That alone means the Chinese will be paying less."

minus the cost of building infrastructure.

"Since Russia isnt a member of Opec they can produce what they want and sell it at whatever price they deem fit."

not true. if i can buy gas at 3.50 from opec or 3.75 from russia, i'll buy from opec. same for the rest of the world.

"If Chinese demand continues to rise, in theory they can buy the same amount of Saudi oil they are now and get the rest from Russia."

no if. chinese demand will rise. but the price will be the same regardless of the source.

"Obviously if they stopped buying OPEC oil it would have an effect but they will never totally depend on the Russians and I dont believe that the Russians can produce nearly enough."

that's wrong. if they stopped buying opec oil because they were taking russian oil off the market, it would have no effect on the global price. there is just 1 big barrel of oil left in the world.

"But I do know that if China is a big customer and Russia is providing a vast amount of oil that those two are more likely to join forces than with us."

russia would be happy to have an ally against the future superpower to the south. we just need to stop being led by clueless fools and we'll be fine.

[hi_im_god]

"But I do know that if China is a big customer and Russia is providing a vast amount of oil that those two are more likely to join forces than with us."

sorry. one more take.

where do you think our close ally venezuela ranks in american foreign oil supplies?

you can't place mutual benefit (the market) as a direct corollary to political benefit.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Who told you this? Bobby Frankel's imaginary friend?

I stopped talking with that guy after he told me that a certain son of King's Best was going to be the next Theatrical.

I think he ran for a tag at Ellis the other day.

Unless of course you mean Aaron Hesz. In that case, I think he told me something like Missou would win the national championship - but Chase Daniels would lose the Heisman vote to a linebacker from Ohio State.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by hi_im_god

"That is a simple view however the real world is more complex."

simple is usually right.

"The Russians dont have much refining capability but the chinese have plenty of money to build refineries. That alone means the Chinese will be paying less."

minus the cost of building infrastructure.

"Since Russia isnt a member of Opec they can produce what they want and sell it at whatever price they deem fit."

not true. if i can buy gas at 3.50 from opec or 3.75 from russia, i'll buy from opec. same for the rest of the world.

"If Chinese demand continues to rise, in theory they can buy the same amount of Saudi oil they are now and get the rest from Russia."

no if. chinese demand will rise. but the price will be the same regardless of the source.

"Obviously if they stopped buying OPEC oil it would have an effect but they will never totally depend on the Russians and I dont believe that the Russians can produce nearly enough."

that's wrong. if they stopped buying opec oil because they were taking russian oil off the market, it would have no effect on the global price. there is just 1 big barrel of oil left in the world.

"But I do know that if China is a big customer and Russia is providing a vast amount of oil that those two are more likely to join forces than with us."

russia would be happy to have an ally against the future superpower to the south. we just need to stop being led by clueless fools and we'll be fine.

Obviously everything is hypothetical but you have missed the point. If Russia and China form a strategic allaince based upon oil, that is bad news for us. The russian oil that we are speaking of is currently not on the market because it is stuck in western Russia with only a small capacity which is sent by railroad which is a bad way to send it. With a pipeline directly to China it can be sold at a discount to the chinese because it still will be more economically feasable to sell to them than sell overseas simply because of the cost of delivery. Personally I dont think they will ever join forces in a military sense simply because of the egos involved. And Venezula and Russia are not comparable situations. Blaming any of this on our current administration is silly unless you want to start with the administrations of FDR on. You do recall that cold war thing right?

Originally Posted by pgardn

The above must be why their dissidents that have seen large
Westernized societies like ours get so pissed yet they hate our
selfishness. Lots of their intellectuals that get tossed write about
these ambivalent feelings.

The following is a little blurb I was trying to express with the statement above:

Though Solzhenitsyn served the regime's purposes in the 1960s, his usefulness had waned by the 1970s. By then, Solzhenitsyn was properly perceived by the Soviet regime as a threat. In the West, he was seen as a hero by all parties. Conservatives saw him as an enemy of communism. Liberals saw him as a champion of human rights. Each invented Solzhenitsyn in their own image. He was given the Noble Prize for Literature, which immunized him against arrest and certified him as a great writer. Instead of arresting him, the Soviets expelled him, sending him into exile in the United States.

When he reached Vermont, the reality of who Solzhenitsyn was slowly sank in. Conservatives realized that while he certainly was an enemy of communism and despised Western liberals who made apologies for the Soviets, he also despised Western capitalism just as much. Liberals realized that Solzhenitsyn hated Soviet oppression, but that he also despised their obsession with individual rights, such as the right to unlimited free expression. Solzhenitsyn was nothing like anyone had thought, and he went from being the heroic intellectual to a tiresome crank in no time. Solzhenitsyn attacked the idea that the alternative to communism had to be secular, individualist humanism. He had a much different alternative in mind.

[Cannon Shell]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123488153527399773.html

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123488153527399773.html

Good article.

Conflicing info on the following. I read China surpassed us.

China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S