Fasig November Sale 3pm today

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

maybe it's because that's where she's won. as for her pedigree, you can't just ignore her bottom half--she is weak pedigree-wise.. and altho tapit is doing ok thus far, he's still too new to know much about. he could be a good sire of two year olds...but i doubt ieah bought her for what's she's done. i think they may well have overpaid for her, considering how tapit did past april of his 3 yo season--and her dam is weak in that dept as well.

It's fair to say that any first crop sire is unproven as we still need to see them solidify that success for a few years. I don't think they bought her expecting her to make her purchase price back, so we'll just have to wait and see how she develops as a 3 year old. If she wins big races, then the $$$ will have been worth it. Others must have been bidding on SB for the price to be jacked up that high, so I assume again that most people think dirt won't be a problem. I'm not going to argue that her damside is weak pedigree wise - clearly it is.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The only way they didnt overpay is if she wins the KY oaks and or Alabama and is a strong 3 year old filly champion. Then she will be worth what they paid for her. If she is a bust as a three year old she will be selling next year in this sale for $2 million or being bred to Big Brown.

LOL - I shouldn't have laughed, but that's funny.

[PPerfectfan]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I wouldnt give a penny over three million for her...
But seriously I believe they overpaid for her considering she has never run on the dirt and has a weak pedigree.

I thought it was high also, but if anyone is gonna get taken by buying something to high, is it wrong of me to be glad its IEAH??? I also saw that a half sister to Curlin is selling Hip 128, in foal to Smart Strike, should be interesting to see what she brings.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

It's fair to say that any first crop sire is unproven as we still need to see them solidify that success for a few years. I don't think they bought her expecting her to make her purchase price back, so we'll just have to wait and see how she develops as a 3 year old. If she wins big races, then the $$$ will have been worth it. Others must have been bidding on SB for the price to be jacked up that high, so I assume again that most people think dirt won't be a problem. I'm not going to argue that her damside is weak pedigree wise - clearly it is.

i don't know that they assume she can handle dirt, i certainly wouldn't assume it since she's only been on AWT. now, since the bc is on pro-ride again this year, maybe they're just hoping to win there in a year. either way, they've spent quite a lot of money to risk that a horse by two precocious runners will prove not to be.

by the same token, she has the top filly championship sewn up-so she has residual value.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Yes he does have a ways to go - look at Officer as well. Of course, those were sires thought to be more precocious. However, SB is obviously a very talented filly and her sire-line is very well thought off (not just Tapit) - that's all I'm saying. I guess most people assume she's going to handle the dirt.

The problem I would have is that IEAH is supposedly in the business of making money for their clients and at this price I just think that is a longshot. Sheikh Mo can pay 100 million for a horse it makes more sense because he wont be looking to sell her or out of her. You have to be an extreme optimist to think she will ever be worth more than she is today.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The problem I would have is that IEAH is supposedly in the business of making money for their clients and at this price I just think that is a longshot. Sheikh Mo can pay 100 million for a horse it makes more sense because he wont be looking to sell her or out of her. You have to be an extreme optimist to think she will ever be worth more than she is today.

I couldn't say if she was a total bust that she would be in the sale next year. However, unless they and the filly were completely embarrassed throughout the year, they can in fact breed her out for many years. Breed to race, sell, foal share, syndicate, I don't know. I am not saying the economics are sound, but fillies and mares like this will always sell for more than the economically sound number -- even in the worst of possible markets.

Eric

[parsixfarms]

If Stardom Bound needs to do anything next year to justify this purchase price, then they may be fighting an uphill battle if she follows the path of some of these recent 2YO filly champions: Folklore, Sweet Catomine, Halfbridled, Storm Flag Flying, Tempera, Caressing, and Countess Diana.

[Betsy]

I guess I knew that no other trainer really had a shot - SB is a big deal and DD is IEAH'S guy. I'm sure DD will do a good job with the filly, but I think it's sad that his big mouth is going to make people root against Stardom Bound. He turned me off of Big Brown, I know that.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I guess I knew that no other trainer really had a shot - SB is a big deal and DD is IEAH'S guy. I'm sure DD will do a good job with the filly, but I think it's sad that his big mouth is going to make people root against Stardom Bound. He turned me off of Big Brown, I know that.

Don't worry -- the horse doesn't know that people are rooting against her, and Dutrow probably doesn't know how you feel. More importantly, I would think he probably won't care.

Eric

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i don't know that they assume she can handle dirt, i certainly wouldn't assume it since she's only been on AWT. now, since the bc is on pro-ride again this year, maybe they're just hoping to win there in a year. either way, they've spent quite a lot of money to risk that a horse by two precocious runners will prove not to be.

by the same token, she has the top filly championship sewn up-so she has residual value.

I guess you can't assume anything in this world, but let's say I'd be surprised if she didn't handle dirt. There were questions about Zenyatta, too, until she won the Apple Blossom. No, lol, I'm not saying SB is Zenyatta, just that not all questions are answered in the negative. Racehorses are always a bit of an unknown, but IEAH thinks she's worth the risk. There's a quote in the link below about that :

http://auctions.bloodhorse.com/article/47873.htm

[parsixfarms]

It's interesting that Iavarone said in the Bloodhorse story that they are going to be bringing in some celebrities on this deal. Does that suggest that she's going to be IEAH's Derby horse? I wouldn't expect them to get "celebrity" partners for an Oaks/Alabama filly.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

If Stardom Bound needs to do anything next year to justify this purchase price, then they may be fighting an uphill battle if she follows the path of some of these recent 2YO filly champions: Folklore, Sweet Catomine, Halfbridled, Storm Flag Flying, Tempera, Caressing, and Countess Diana.

Excellent point. In certain cases, it's not about justifying, not at all. Storm Flag Flying would be a perfect example there. Even in this case though, I don't think it's about justifying. They can breed her out for many years. Sure, complete roll of the dice, but a good looking filly, first few years, etc. That's the name of the breeding game.

So, do you think they breed to race or do they sell?

Eric

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by ELA

Don't worry -- the horse doesn't know that people are rooting against her, and Dutrow probably doesn't know how you feel. More importantly, I would think he probably won't care.

Eric

No, the horse doesn't know and lol, DD certainly doesn't care (I admire that attitude, in a way). For me though, it is kind of sad. SB is a likeable filly and fun to watch for many people - I hope they can see past the trainer. Me? I'm going to have to grit my teeth and/or bite on a bullet .........but I'm still glad she's staying here...AND on the East Coast.

[lemoncrush]

I was kind of upset that she's going to IEAH and Dutrow, and not because I'm not fans of either of them. I just was hoping she would stay out west, and if she develops run in the Santa Anita Derby VS. the boys, and then possibly the Kentucky Derby. I know it's a long shot, but with Vineyard Haven and Midshipman off to Dubai, she could make some noise against what has so far been a very mediocre group of 2-year colts.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

I couldn't say if she was a total bust that she would be in the sale next year. However, unless they and the filly were completely embarrassed throughout the year, they can in fact breed her out for many years. Breed to race, sell, foal share, syndicate, I don't know. I am not saying the economics are sound, but fillies and mares like this will always sell for more than the economically sound number -- even in the worst of possible markets.

Eric

The price is entirely too high as breeding stock especially in this market with her pedigree.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by ELA

So, do you think they breed to race or do they sell?

Hard to say, with Big Brown part of the equation now, but it seems as if they buy to race, and then cash out when the mares are at the end of their racing careers. For example, they are selling Ariege later in this sale.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Hard to say, with Big Brown part of the equation now, but it seems as if they buy to race, and then cash out when the mares are at the end of their racing careers. For example, they are selling Ariege later in this sale.

Agreed. I think it can go many ways. They have a unique business model and I think it is very organic as well. Who knows.

Eric

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ELA

Agreed. I think it can go many ways. They have a unique business model and I think it is very organic as well. Who knows.

Eric

would that be bullshit?

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The price is entirely too high as breeding stock especially in this market with her pedigree.

Too high for you. Not them, and just a tad too high for Stronach (the underbidder). Who knows that they have in mind. I have no idea who might be advising them, or what consultants they use. Maybe they plan on selling multi-million dollar yearlings one after the other.

In today's marketplace, the #'s are certainly not what they once were as far as market value. But like I said, the so called special ones will still go off the charts.

Eric

[ELA]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

would that be bullshit?

Perhaps yes.

Eric