Derby AE List

[justindew]

In my opinion, this is the bottom line:

In the horse racing industry (as well as many, if not all other industries) no one does anything unless they have proof the move will help rather than hurt business. It seems like people in this industry are more risk-averse than most businessmen, but I guess I have no proof of that.

For one reason or another, correctly or incorrectly, CD feels an AE list is not the best move for business. My theory is that this refusal has to do with advance wagering and bettor confusion.

As for the Derby Draw, it generates revenue.

[joeydb]

Risk averse, yes, but I think you're giving them too much credit in implying that they are always looking for new ways of doing things. Many of the horse racing state offices and management appear to be suffering from the same stagnation that plagues many beaurocracies, whether they be governmental or corporate.

A previous post suggesting the ordering of the post draw by earnings level sounds like an idea worth trying.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Simple. First horse off eligible list get place of first horse scratched. Why would they do it any other way?

This is how "reserves" get placed in every other racing country. If a horse scratches and there is a reserve (AE) he goes into the gate that the scratched horse is vacating. No changing the entire field's start position. It also means that more AE's actually run.
Think about how many times AE's don't run even when scratches make it possible. Why? Trainers don't want to run if they have to go from post 12. Better to wait. If the scratch was from post 3, they still get "outside." In Europe, Dubai and Asia, they get the empty stall.


With advance wagering you'd still have to "close the race" before betting opened the day before. You can't open the betting before the field is set. Because of the advance betting, if you had 2 scratches on Saturday morning you would still only have 18 go and the AE's wouldn't be able to get in.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Name a couple who actually wanted in that had a shot. It's possible, but the occurrence is so infrequent that it's ridiculous to change the rules for that once a decade horse.

They changed the rules this year to let a totally undeserving horse from England in. One more slot taken from a deserving horse. I am not saying that ther are a huge number of horses that have missed being in the 20 but as people are more apt to run fillies, and slot tracks keep adding money to fairly insignifigant races especially as two year olds, the deserving (ie, better horses) will see their numbers dwindle further. Imagine the handwringing if a horse misses the cut, there are 2 scratches and that horse goes on to easily win the Preakness, Belmont, Travers, BC Classic....Then the rules will certainly change but using hindsight as usual. AE's are not a foreign concept the other 364 days of the year.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by justindew

In my opinion, this is the bottom line:

In the horse racing industry (as well as many, if not all other industries) no one does anything unless they have proof the move will help rather than hurt business. It seems like people in this industry are more risk-averse than most businessmen, but I guess I have no proof of that.

For one reason or another, correctly or incorrectly, CD feels an AE list is not the best move for business. My theory is that this refusal has to do with advance wagering and bettor confusion.

As for the Derby Draw, it generates revenue.

Actually this business is way less risk averse than normal businesses. The tracks are the only ones who are risk averse and that explains a lot in how they have stagnated.

CDI may feel that an AE is not a good move for business but that certainly doesnt mean they are right.

The Derby draw generates revenue? Are they selling tickets now?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Actually this business is way less risk averse than normal businesses. The tracks are the only ones who are risk averse and that explains a lot in how they have stagnated.

CDI may feel that an AE is not a good move for business but that certainly doesnt mean they are right.

The Derby draw generates revenue? Are they selling tickets now?

I was referring to the tracks. My fault for not being clear.

I know that UPS once sponsored the draw. Can't remember if CD sold sponsorship rights last year.

[Linny]

The fact is that there are now effectively 19 slots in the gate and the rules are set and understood. Trainers/owners know the rules and if they don't want to be left on the sidelines they need to start accumulating graded earnings as early and often as possible. If it means taking a late October maiden breaker from Belmont to Delta for the Jackpot, so be it. Skip the $200k Remsen and go to Delta or the CashCall Futurity. If your horse is a Dunkirk or Imperial Council with allowance wins but no graded $$$, if you put you stock into one graded race and lose, you are probably watching come Derby Day. (It lookes like Shug will give IC 2 graded races so he's got a better shot than Dunkirk.)

Every year someone comes along sobbing about how X is SO GOOD but probably wont get in because of the rules. The same rules apply to all. It's not the rules that kept him out. It's the inability, for whatever reason to rack up enough graded earnings that kept him out. Remember, if Smarty Jones was third in the Ark. Derby he probably wouldn't have gotten to the Derby at all. That was pretty risky. If Dunkirk runs 3rd in the Fla Derby he probably wont make the field this year. Last year I liked Denis of Cork and he damn near got left off because his owner's "racing manager" sent his closer into a race on a speedway and he finished off the board. If they had failed to get in it was no one's fault but the connections.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

They changed the rules this year to let a totally undeserving horse from England in. One more slot taken from a deserving horse. I am not saying that ther are a huge number of horses that have missed being in the 20 but as people are more apt to run fillies, and slot tracks keep adding money to fairly insignifigant races especially as two year olds, the deserving (ie, better horses) will see their numbers dwindle further. Imagine the handwringing if a horse misses the cut, there are 2 scratches and that horse goes on to easily win the Preakness, Belmont, Travers, BC Classic....Then the rules will certainly change but using hindsight as usual. AE's are not a foreign concept the other 364 days of the year.

AE's are not a foreign concept to the other 364 days, but 20 horse fields are. I just don't believe that the last one in takes away a spot from a deserving horse because the 20th one in isn't all that deserving.

As for lightly raced late bloomers. Everyone knows the rules and has the same opportunity to chase inflated 2yo purses. I'm not against modifying the rules to weight the graded earnings for 3yo dirt routes, but I'm not clamoring to call one deserving when he runs 3rd in one G1 race. Win one and you are in.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Actually this business is way less risk averse than normal businesses. The tracks are the only ones who are risk averse and that explains a lot in how they have stagnated.

CDI may feel that an AE is not a good move for business but that certainly doesnt mean they are right.

The Derby draw generates revenue? Are they selling tickets now?

The Derby draw is televised, so I'm sure ESPN is paying something. Even if it's not much, it is and hour worth of publicity.

There is also a lot of activity around the draw which gets people out into businesses spending money.

[Scurlogue Champ]

Originally Posted by justindew

In my opinion, this is the bottom line:

In the horse racing industry (as well as many, if not all other industries) no one does anything unless they have proof the move will help rather than hurt business. It seems like people in this industry are more risk-averse than most businessmen, but I guess I have no proof of that.

For one reason or another, correctly or incorrectly, CD feels an AE list is not the best move for business. My theory is that this refusal has to do with advance wagering and bettor confusion.

As for the Derby Draw, it generates revenue.

Derby Barbie, Emo concert at Arlington Million Day last year from an unknown singer, Matrix, Over-Under, Derby Party, Chief Party Officer, Kempton Park Challenge.

I wonder what proof they had that the above moves would help business.

If they just lowered takeout a bit and sat on their asses they would do a better job at increasing business.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

AE's are not a foreign concept to the other 364 days, but 20 horse fields are. I just don't believe that the last one in takes away a spot from a deserving horse because the 20th one in isn't all that deserving.

As for lightly raced late bloomers. Everyone knows the rules and has the same opportunity to chase inflated 2yo purses. I'm not against modifying the rules to weight the graded earnings for 3yo dirt routes, but I'm not clamoring to call one deserving when he runs 3rd in one G1 race. Win one and you are in.

Deserving? It isnt about deserving, it is about getting the best horses in the gate. if three Fillies cross enter and scratch and we get a Kempton horse every year you are down to 16 deserving horses. The idea that not many good horses are left out is too simplistic for me especially as Slot tracks add more high dollar races. How long till Philly adds a big money race? I'd rather see the gate full.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by wac

Drugs, i agree wiht you i call it "looking for Giacomo" syndrome. People get so scared about missing out on some huge hit they bet horses that should legit be 60-1 down to 30-1 or even lower. Its happened every year since Giacomo and is pretty odd. Course when you see the odds lower on a horse that you threw out you start wondering what am i missing?? Leads to good comments in the betting lines.

Oh dear, Monba flashbacks.

[Merlinsky]

Isn't there a way to manipulate the process? Like you have an 'ought to be ruled out' horse that you don't really admit is gonna have to scratch but you keep em in, then wait til it's too late to let in an AE, then they scratch and you've kept someone out on purpose?

Danthebluegrassman was Baffert keeping someone else out. Sunday Break was it?

[justindew]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Isn't there a way to manipulate the process? Like you have an 'ought to be ruled out' horse that you don't really admit is gonna have to scratch but you keep em in, then wait til it's too late to let in an AE, then they scratch and you've kept someone out on purpose?

Danthebluegrassman was Baffert keeping someone else out. Sunday Break was it?

Danthebluegrassman's late entry kept Windward Passage out. It'sallinthechase was also entered that year, and he kept Sunday Break out.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Isn't there a way to manipulate the process? Like you have an 'ought to be ruled out' horse that you don't really admit is gonna have to scratch but you keep em in, then wait til it's too late to let in an AE, then they scratch and you've kept someone out on purpose?

Danthebluegrassman was Baffert keeping someone else out. Sunday Break was it?

I know what you are saying and there certainly may be some level of gamesmanship, but my point I'm sticking to is that the owners of Sunday Break and Windward Passage knew the rules and didn't properly place their horses to get the earnings required...and no, neither of them had much of a chance.

Good discussion guys. I really agree with what a lot of you are saying about having the best fields and all, and there is probably no effect of having the AE list to fill a scratch, even after the draw.