3/7 (AQU): Gotham S. (Gr. III); Toboggan H. (Gr. III) - Page 3

cakes44 · #41 03-07-2009, 07:13 PM

Who was the last Derby winner that lost by 6 lengths in March?

justindew · #42 03-07-2009, 07:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Who was the last Derby winner that lost by 6 lengths in March?

Giacomo

Danzig · #43 03-07-2009, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Who was the last Derby winner that lost by 6 lengths in March?

not sure-but not all derby winners were always a star. look at real quiet, funny cide, thunder gulch, charismatic for example. by the same token, consider horses such as pyro-this time last year, he was all the talk.

ateamstupid · #44 03-07-2009, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Every year it's the same thing --- a horse impresses and the hype becomes contagious. Imperial Council is one example. Today's effort wasn't terrible. They went 48 2/5 to the half, not exactly flying, and it showed as the pacemakers had plenty left late. So, all said, Imperial Council does deserve another chance, but I hope the superstar hype ceases.

Superstar hype? I must have missed this. I saw a few people suggesting he could be a nice one, but I didn't see any superstar hype.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The big story of the Gotham is that I Want Revenge dusted these guys, and he lost to Pioneer of the Nile. If Pioneer of the Nile stays on course, and takes to dirt, how good is he? These synthetic preps are screwing up my brain.

Think of the intent. I Want Revenge has west coast connections, so he ran on synthetic by default. Pioneerof the Nile has east coast connections, and for some strange reason, they never tried him on dirt out here. I don't think IWR's performance today should change any opinions of POTN.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Who was the last Derby winner that lost by 6 lengths in March?

Not sure how that's relevant when a horse freaks like IWR did today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

I'm not disappointed, I thought he ran decent for what he is, but I do think if anyone viewed him as Derby contender, they should probably be disappointed.

He didn't have to beat a good race from I Want Revenge, but (IMO) he should have challenged for the win. IC isn't going to get any better at 9 or 10 furlongs. He also has a little bit of a conformation problem with his stride, and it's my opinion that he really needs to be head and shoulders above in these weaker preps to be projected highly for May.

Again, he had a lot going against him today and he certainly wasn't disgraced. I hope this is the prevailing sentiment going into the Wood, maybe I can get a good price on him.

Travis Stone · #45 03-07-2009, 08:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Think of the intent. I Want Revenge has west coast connections, so he ran on synthetic by default. Pioneerof the Nile has east coast connections, and for some strange reason, they never tried him on dirt out here. I don't think IWR's performance today should change any opinions of POTN.

The fact that POTN beat IWR doesn't change your opinion of POTN? To me, it legitimizes POTN a bit and makes the "Will he handle dirt?" question a bit more intriguing.

golfer · #46 03-07-2009, 08:03 PM

Imperial Council had shown a fair amount of early speed previously, it appeared they were trying something new today by sitting last in a pedestrian half. Possibly a great idea for the future, not so for the present.

NTamm1215 · #47 03-07-2009, 08:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The fact that POTN beat IWR doesn't change your opinion of POTN? To me, it legitimizes POTN a bit and makes the "Will he handle dirt?" question a bit more intriguing.

It makes the question a bit more intriguing, if you don't have it answered already. I think I do.

NT

justindew · #48 03-07-2009, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The fact that POTN beat IWR doesn't change your opinion of POTN? To me, it legitimizes POTN a bit and makes the "Will he handle dirt?" question a bit more intriguing.

I think there is no connection whatsoever.

ateamstupid · #49 03-07-2009, 08:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The fact that POTN beat IWR doesn't change your opinion of POTN? To me, it legitimizes POTN a bit and makes the "Will he handle dirt?" question a bit more intriguing.

Why should it legitimize him any? If IWR had lost to POTN on turf, then did what he did today, would you be elevating POTN at all for the Derby?

#50 03-07-2009, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KirisClown

True, the goal was the Gotham.. not the more important future races..

The horse is a disgustingly slow slob..

Why don't you just go to his stable and blow him?

Danzig · #51 03-07-2009, 08:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The fact that POTN beat IWR doesn't change your opinion of POTN? To me, it legitimizes POTN a bit and makes the "Will he handle dirt?" question a bit more intriguing.

i disagree that it legitimizes potn-just because i want revenge handled dirt that does not indicate POTN will do the same, or at the same level of ability that he has shown on synthetic. what are the odds that several west coasters will all be able to translate to the real thing?

Travis Stone · #52 03-07-2009, 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I think there is no connection whatsoever.

Were you inspired this time?

justindew · #53 03-07-2009, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Were you inspired this time?

I didn't say that. I said the fact that I Want Revenge handled the dirt has no impact on my questions regarding Pioneerof The Nile.

Do I really have a radical argument here?

Travis Stone · #54 03-07-2009, 08:19 PM

You all are missing my point. I'm not endorsing POTN at all. Not one bit. I too think he's a turf horse, but regardless, the fact he beat IWR who then came back to win today helps legitimate POTN's ability to a certain extent. What extent is that? Who knows. Time will tell.

#55 03-07-2009, 08:20 PM

The derby winner is not coming out of that race. That doesn't mean that a few of the participants couldn't make waves in other big races.

justindew · #56 03-07-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

You all are missing my point. I'm not endorsing POTN at all. Not one bit. I too think he's a turf horse, but regardless, the fact he beat IWR who then came back to win today helps legitimate POTN's ability to a certain extent. What extent is that? Who knows. Time will tell.

Fine, but that's not what you said. You said IWR's win makes the "Will POTN handle dirt question" more intriguing.

Travis Stone · #57 03-07-2009, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

I didn't say that. I said the fact that I Want Revenge handled the dirt has no impact on my questions regarding Pioneerof The Nile.

Do I really have a radical argument here?

No you don't, and I just clarified what I was trying to say above.

I'm not correlating between both liking the synthetic surface and both translating it to dirt, but rather that if POTN were to handle the dirt, which honestly we can guess and handicap one way or the other, but if he were to handle it, the fact he beat IWR and that IWR came back to win today, shows that POTN does have some ability.

It's basic potential key race handicapping, nothing more, nothing less.

Travis Stone · #58 03-07-2009, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Fine, but that's not what you said. You said IWR's win makes the "Will POTN handle dirt question" more intriguing.

... we're kinda talking in circles but I meant it as if he does handle the dirt, he could be really good. But again, that's a big if on the dirt point.

Danzig · #59 03-07-2009, 08:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

You all are missing my point. I'm not endorsing POTN at all. Not one bit. I too think he's a turf horse, but regardless, the fact he beat IWR who then came back to win today helps legitimate POTN's ability to a certain extent. What extent is that? Who knows. Time will tell.

not necessarily. POTN has the edge on syns-what that has to do with judging either horses ability on dirt i don't know. POTN might still manhandle IWR on dirt, or he might be in the back of the pack-or somewhere in between. they would have to square off on the real deal to get an accurate read on them.

justindew · #60 03-07-2009, 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

No you don't, and I just clarified what I was trying to say above.

I'm not correlating between both liking the synthetic surface and both translating it to dirt, but rather that if POTN were to handle the dirt, which honestly we can guess and handicap one way or the other, but if he were to handle it, the fact he beat IWR and that IWR came back to win today, shows that POTN does have some ability.

It's basic potential key race handicapping, nothing more, nothing less.

I know of no one who has ever argued otherwise, unless we're talking dirt vs. turf/synthetic.