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#1
04-11-2009, 03:58 AM
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4/11: Keeneland (6th-10th); Comely; AK Derby
Had very nice afternoon at Keeneland Friday despite agonizing wire beat out of very big P4 score. Previous 3 events earned large P3 though, and day's excellent exotics should have sent you home with some bankrol for today's Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby cards. Hope you did well. On way to Landover, MD this a.m., so it will be difficult to make post-scratch adjustments until early afternoon. Hope you enjoyed ATR from Foxwoods Thursday and Friday!
KEENELAND PRE-SCRATCHES 6th: Shakertown (Gr. III), 3+, 5,5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #10 Hero's Reward 5-1: May be better next, but respect Capuano veteran.. WON Most Likely: #4 Mr. Nightlinger 5-2: Serious specialist back for title defense.. 5th Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1: Non-coupled to ML fave; 5yo gets GoGo.. 3rd Exotics Use: #5 Cannonball 12-1: Got turf sprint education last; Can boost exotics.. 2nd $1 Exacta (10-5) Paid $56.70 $1 Trifecta (10-5-9) Paid $396.80 7th: Commonwealth (Gr. II), 3+, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Rebellion 5-2: Won this off similar break last year.. 2nd Best Value: #2 Keep Laughing 6-1: KMc DistHumor needs best, but can pop up.. 5th Next Best: #4 My Pal Charlie 4-1: Stall says turnback should suit Gr. II winner.. 3rd Super Add: #1 Eternal Star 9-2: Trombo tabbed this over Gr. I Carter; Capable.. WON $2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $47.00 $1 Trifecta (1-8-4) Paid $71.80 8th: Jenny Wiley (Gr. II), F&M04+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 I Lost My Choo 6-1: Serpe NY bred always ready; Goes 2nd/layoff.. 7th Best Value: #6 Kiss With a Twist 30-1: LDK mare prepped on TP poly; Explodes here.. 3rd Next Best: #3 Forever Together 1-1: BC Turf star formidable; Sheppard's guns ablaze.. WON Super Add: #7 Backseat Rhythm 4-1 5th 9th: Blue Grass (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Charitable Man 4-1: McLaughlin Futurity winner working brilliantly for '09 bow.. 7th Best Value: #4 Ciffy's Future 20-1: Poly prep score noted for connections who won this with Dominican.. 11th Next Best: #2 Join in the Dance 10-1: Pletcher TB Derby runner-up a wire threat loose on lead.. 5th Exotics Use: #1 Patena 10-1: Expect snap back effort after FG fiasco; Liked Woodbine's synthetic.. 10th Super Add: #5 Mafaaz 12-1: Likely better than people anticipate; Paceless affair could suit.. 8th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 4-5-9-10 7: 1-2-4-7-8 8: 1-3-6 9: 4-9 4x5x3x2 = 120 x .50 = $60 10th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #7 Pick Six 6-1 3rd Best Value: #1 Jazz Quest 10-1 4th Next Best: #10 Jamaludin 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #6 SCR High 5 Play: #9 Late SCR AQUEDUCT PRE-SCRATCHES 9th: Comely (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m (DD) Most Likely: #5 Dream Play 9-5: KMc Hennessy miss should stalk, go.. WON Best Value: #2 Don't Forget Gil 5-2: FL Oaks heroine comes late; Will be lost on board.. 2nd Next Best: #4 Laragh 2-1: HOL Starlet winner may need one.. 5th OAKLAWN PARK PRE-SCRATCHES 11th: Arkansas Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super) Most Likely: #8 Old Fashioned 9-5: Should get more comfortable trip today.. 2nd Best Value: #3 Flat Out 10-1: Caught attention early and believe he steps up.. 6th Next Best: #2 Papa Clem 6-1: Stute's careful handling paying off; Gets 1st fast, dry strip.. WON Super Add: #9 Win Willy 7-2: Much less pace to chase; Needs decent showing only.. 4th Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 04-11-2009 at 06:41 PM. 
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#3
04-11-2009, 07:41 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 04-11-2009 at 08:02 AM.
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#5
04-11-2009, 12:25 PM
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early pk4 $0.50
gonna take a stand against Jones' tandom in the last leg, might be stupid but i think its gonna be a pretty competitive race and neither of his runners wow me on paper 27 267 1456 1491112 = $60 gl all -bt-
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#6
04-11-2009, 12:29 PM
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early pick 4
2/1,7,8/1,5,10/6,9,12 $13.50
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#7
04-11-2009, 01:37 PM
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late Keenland Pk 4
Going to bet the late pick 4, rather than the all-stakes pk 4, as I usually prefer to avoid to turf sprints whenever possible.
Race 7: 8 - Rebellion - Captain Obvious 4 - My Pal Charlie - Think he will move up on Keenland surface 2 - Keep Laughing - His win last Spring at Keenland ruined a sizeable pk 4 score for me; won't let him beat me again. Race 8: 3 - Forever Together - Breeders Cup F/M turf champ vulernable to layoff and pace scenerio. 6 - Kiss with a Twist - Agree with Steve's comments above; makes a lot of sense, especially with the lack of pace in the race 8 - Ruthannarie - Tallied six straight 3rd place finishes after winning this race last year. Race 9: 10 - Hold Me Back - Hope synthetic/turf specialist wins today and takes a lot of dead money on Derby Day 9 - Charitable Man - Shouldn't be a win candidate under these circumstances, but he's talented, and much of this field isn't. 2 - Join in the Dance - Should be right on the pace, and that's probably a good place to be 11 - Massone - Been involved in one key race after another. Lone win came with Gomez aboard, and he's back in the saddle today. Race 10: 10 - Jamaludin - Favorite in last should rebound; soft turf not a problem. 7 - Pick Six - Just a hunch 8 - Equitable - Ran a big one last summer at Monmouth in a G1 on yielding turf. $49 pk 4 (.50) Good luck everyone.
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#8
04-11-2009, 01:42 PM
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Redboard...
I put 5 across on Exotic Bloom because of the way the track is playing. Gotta take advantage of a bulls.hit course.
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#10
04-11-2009, 08:29 AM
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Keeneland 4-11
minus-3241 (2009) pre-scr's
1) $2 ex 15/38 $5 w 1 $2 wp 4 win $51.50 4) $2 ex 36/2,10 $5 w 6 $2wp 7l/s win/plc $59.40 7) $2 ex 18/24 $5 w 8 $2 wp 3 lost 9) $2 ex 3,10/29 $5 w 10 $2wp 8 l/s win/plc $41.60 total $68 good-luck won $152.50 +84.50 -15 on pk4 +69.50 Last edited by sdjcom : 04-11-2009 at 04:28 PM.
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#11
04-11-2009, 08:32 AM
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Quote:
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#13
04-11-2009, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0_KBe8z0h0
__________________
"Change can be good, but constant change shows no direction" http://www.hickoryhillhoff.blogspot.com/
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#14
04-11-2009, 11:36 AM
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Early pick 4 @ KEE Races 2-5
R2: 2,6,7,8,9 R3: 1,2,6,7,8 R4: 1 R5: 2,4,6,9 0.50 play = $50 Race 2 is off the turf and I'll also being playing a ticket with the 6 singled in R2. Love the War Chant's on the Poly.
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"Boston fans hate the Yankees, we hate the Canadiens and we hate the Lakers. It's in our DNA. It just is." - Bill Simmons
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#16
04-11-2009, 09:38 AM
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Scratches & Changes
Saturday, April 11, 2009 Race Description 1 1st Race #6--Point Affirmed--SCRATCH 2nd Race -- Race has been taken OFF the turf course and will be run at 1 1/16 miles on Polytrack. #3--Keertana--SCRATCH #5--Bizzee Mizzee--SCRATCH 3rd Race #1A--White Lamb--SCRATCH 4th Race NO CHANGES 5th Race #5--Always in My Heart--SCRATCH #10--Divine Sanction--SCRATCH 6th Race -- Shakertown (G3) #7--Rollers--SCRATCH #8--Fort Prado--SCRATCH #13AE--Goldphin Gray--Runs #14AE--Stradivinsky--SCRATCH 7th Race -- Commonwealth (G2) NO CHANGES 8th Race -- Jenny Wiley (G2) #4--Ballymore Lady--SCRATCH #9--Visit--SCRATCH 9th Race -- Toyota Blue Grass (G1) NO CHANGES 10th Race #4--Trackerman--SCRATCH #6--Free Fighter--SCRATCH Track Conditions, Maintenance & Weather Saturday, April 11, 2009 11:00 AM The Polytrack is fast; the turf course is yielding; the rail is down Forecast is sunny and 60 degrees today; check back throughout the day to see if the condition of the turf course is upgraded We received about 1.5 inches of rain yesterday.
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#17
04-11-2009, 09:40 AM
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I have absolutely no idea what to do in the Jenny Wiley w/o a clear pace scenario. Forever Together is obviously superior to these horses on her best day, but she's at a huge disadvantage with the lack of speed. The problem is, so is everyone else. The wet turf also complicates things. I'd single Backseat Rhythm if she wasn't a closer as well. . .
Last edited by hockey2315 : 04-11-2009 at 09:57 AM.
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#19
04-11-2009, 10:03 AM
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If I decide to play a PK4 #7 will be my A and 1, 6 will be B's.
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#20
04-11-2009, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
IMO that is what makes Kiss with a Twist interesting as she will try and steal this at a ML of 30-1
__________________
“To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
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