6/20 (CNL): Colonial Turf Cup (G2); All Along (G3)

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by Linny

I agree that 'Mousse is a good horse and a star on that track but don't see his second in the Sham as a great run. It seemed that they all figured 'Mousse was cheap stretchout speed and that he'd come back so no one challenged early. They just cantered 1-2 all around.

well I'm talking about a subtle little move in the begining and a move on the 2nd turn, and it admittedly wasn't the most grueling tough trip you'll ever see.

here's a decent replay of it if you want to see the time frame i am mentioning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RjzNixub5g
you probably already saw this - just to clarify what made me upgrade his Sham slightly

didn't break all that great
(10s - 20seconds) Gomez wanted to see if he could maybe get the lead but then conceded the lead and was unwilling to ask for more horse.

that little bit of a early move also hung him a little wider than needed going into the 1st turn (0:33seconds) in the dreaded 4path (again subtle)

he tries to settle into a relaxed cruise several times on the backstretch but mostly unsuccesful, smart bid kind of slides up and Gomez doesn't want Take the Points too far off of The Pamplemousse

(1:28-142) Gomez gets into Take The Points and makes a real run at Pamplemousse. But he loses stride a little at about 1:42 while Pamplemousse kicks away. This could take a lot out of a chasing horse, but he does an OK job of holding off the admittedly weak competition.



Hes not invincible and I am actually considering playing against if he is to be bet down a whole lot. I would have preferred Lime Rickey be a low favorite and play agianst him and use TTP instead. I like Battle of Hastings and Take The Points as my top two. A couple other longshots are interesting here as well. I figure Take the Points will either settle with the group in good position and cruise around and make 1 closing run at the wire , OR he might just dissapear. I think his runnning style will be a little different from the sustained chaser/grinder he is on dirt.

[CSC]

This has been bugging me since I saw the entries, is Desourmeaux in for the day to ride Indescribable? I don't see see why he would fly in to take the mount on Al Khali. Unless he's seen him work on grass recently...

[hockey2315]

Kent has ridden Indescribable in her last 5 starts, so it's probably safe to assume that that's why he's down there.

[jwkniska]

Originally Posted by CSC

This has been bugging me since I saw the entries, is Desourmeaux in for the day to ride Indescribable? I don't see see why he would fly in to take the mount on Al Khali. Unless he's seen him work on grass recently...

Indescribable has to be the reason he's there.

[CSC]

I guess you can say I am fishing for value here, I respect Pletcher and his placement of horses and this one's placement is abit intriguing, though with his form it would be a leap to back him unless he's outrageously forgotten.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by CSC

I guess you can say I am fishing for value here, I respect Pletcher and his placement of horses and this one's placement is abit intriguing, though with his form it would be a leap to back him unless he's outrageously forgotten.

Don't the horse's performances in his last two starts sort of undermine any reasoning that points to Pletcher's spotting of horses?

[CSC]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Don't the horse's performances in his last two starts sort of undermine any reasoning that points to Pletcher's spotting of horses?

I know what you are saying, it's just peculiar that if they wanted a wakeup race with the surface change, they didn't choose an Allw race but chose a 500K race to do it in. It's an aggressive spot for this horse, unless he's insurance for the race if it comes off of the turf, If we go 3 back, his first race was actually OK...Panty Raid was a horse that had reportedly worked well before that big race out west yrs ago when she tried turf the 1st time, though Panty Raid was a good horse her pedigree wasn't overly turf heavy and remembering & wondering why Pletch had chosen that race for her, she won nevertheless, however the only way someone would have taken a stand with her that day is if they knew how she worked on grass prior to that race.

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Don't the horse's performances in his last two starts sort of undermine any reasoning that points to Pletcher's spotting of horses?

it reminds me a little of Court Vision from last year, did he have any turf starts going into colonial, i can't remember

-bt-

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by -BT-

it reminds me a little of Court Vision from last year, did he have any turf starts going into colonial, i can't remember

-bt-

He didn't but he also got drubbed in the Turf Cup before a good Va Derby.

All I know of Al Khali is that he's a very slow horse.

NT

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

All I know of Al Khali is that he's a very slow horse.

NT

yea , and even his allowance win was IIRC a lucky win where Atomic Rain? wierdly quit on the turn and Al Khali inherited the lead/win.


However Medaglio D'oro is a popular sire at this time and it makes sense for his owners to take some shots with him. He has some decent works on both turf and Keeneland. I don't like him here at all but I can see them trying to get some value out of this seemingly mediocre animal.

[CSC]

I don't suppose anyone on this board has seen him work on turf? He shows 3 turf works since the Peter Pan, is it possible Pletcher saw something he liked?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't suppose anyone on this board has seen him work on turf? He shows 3 turf works since the Peter Pan, is it possible Pletcher saw something he liked?

It's also possible that this is a last-ditch effort with a horse who has allowance conditions that aren't available to straight 3's.

A very astute poster put up Pletcher's stat regarding horses trying turf for the first time in graded stakes earlier in the thread.

NT

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by Alan07

The only thing hotter than the racing will be the weather
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/...st?query=23124

IF that forecast is correct for saturday, it will be NASTY, even in the shade. we were at the 2006 Va. Derby (Go Between-winner) on a day like that. it was fun day and colonial puts on a good show but it was HOT.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's also possible that this is a last-ditch effort with a horse who has allowance conditions that aren't available to straight 3's.

A very astute poster put up Pletcher's stat regarding horses trying turf for the first time in graded stakes earlier in the thread.

NT

Granted 1-13(7.7%) is a small sample, yeah I admit this is abit of a fishing expedition looking for value where there may not be any, however I would look at him if he was atleast 15-1 and over. None of these bowl me over that you have to atleast try to find some value here.

[Linny]

Todd is a "classic American trainer" in that he is very "dirt centric." Panty Raid notwithstanding, his moes to turf (or debuting onturf) usually mean he doesn't think he has a serious dirt stakes horse. Once the triple crown is past, it's open season. Still, when I see him go "first turf" with a horse that was on the Derby Trail I see him as fishing for something the horse can do well.
I don't think Take the Points is a "no-hoper." If he wins or runs well I wont be shocked, but I don't think he's a strong win candidate. Unless Al Khali is a different animal on turf I can't see him as a strong contender. I'd rather look for a lightly raced horse with grass breeding and minimal PP's and a bigger price because he never ran against 'Mousse et al.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Linny

Todd is a "classic American trainer" in that he is very "dirt centric." Panty Raid notwithstanding, his moes to turf (or debuting onturf) usually mean he doesn't think he has a serious dirt stakes horse. Once the triple crown is past, it's open season. Still, when I see him go "first turf" with a horse that was on the Derby Trail I see him as fishing for something the horse can do well.
I don't think Take the Points is a "no-hoper." If he wins or runs well I wont be shocked, but I don't think he's a strong win candidate. Unless Al Khali is a different animal on turf I can't see him as a strong contender. I'd rather look for a lightly raced horse with grass breeding and minimal PP's and a bigger price because he never ran against 'Mousse et al.

You think Panty Raid could run a step on dirt? Has Phil got to you already? She was a terrible dirt horse that lucked into a typically bad Black Eyed Susan.

[Linny]

PR was a modest, possibly G3 class filly that got lucky with the situation and ran the biggest race of her life in the most important race of her life.
As stated, I tend to think of Todd on turf as more an act of desperation than planning.

[Travis Stone]

Take the Points not only failed to flatter himself, but Choclate Candy and Mr. Hot Stuff did a number on that reputation as well.

I don't see how Take the Points offers any sort of value at anything less than 8-1, if that.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by ddthetide

IF that forecast is correct for saturday, it will be NASTY, even in the shade. we were at the 2006 Va. Derby (Go Between-winner) on a day like that. it was fun day and colonial puts on a good show but it was HOT.

I'm probably the only person who loves this kind of weather.

40% chance of afternoon thundershowers now - I hope it doesn't hit like last year!

[jms62]

Am I the only one that loves Tejada at 12-1?