Arlington Million/The race - Page 3

Scurlogue Champ · #41 08-11-2006, 01:59 PM

I am confident in her due to her form behind Alexandrova in the English and Irish Oaks.

In my opinion, Alexandrova is better than Ouija Board was in her 3 year old year when she came over here and dusted our crop.

And Rising Cross quickened nicely with her and got a nice second at Epsom.

The races in England are of a different (and better) type in my opinion than anything we have here. And I don't see Gorella as being a top class filly/mare over in Europe, she just stands out here because she had an impressive run against our boys in the mile last year. She would just be another filly/mare over in Europe, and Rising Cross isn't just another filly in my opinion.

Film Maker is in a good spot here, but I don't see her winning. I am only on Rising Cross to win. No place or show wagers here.

Scurlogue Champ · #42 08-11-2006, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

your nuts Mood, only way that English channel finishs off the board here is a horrible or stupid ride by Johnny, which is like maybe 5% of the time(unlike Laviolette which is 94.6% of the time he rides like a moron)

EC is 2-3 lengths faster then everyone in this field besides Cacique. Cacique will get overplayed because of the Arlington idiots/Frankel/arabs and I personally feel he has distance questions at longer then 1 1/8...I know he won at 10 panels but that ride was a masterpiece and he was still getting tired at the end...

More to come later, I have some surprises for you folks, should make for an interesting day

You and everyone else who thinks that EC is 2-3 lengths faster than everyone in the field is exactly why I am going to have a good day tomorrow.

Do you seriously think this? Ace is faster than EC, and in England he carries about as much status as West Virginia (Pletcher's older dirt horse) does here.

Scav · #43 08-11-2006, 02:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moodwalker

You and everyone else who thinks that EC is 2-3 lengths faster than everyone in the field is exactly why I am going to have a good day tomorrow.

Do you seriously think this? Ace is faster than EC, and in England he carries about as much status as West Virginia (Pletcher's older dirt horse) does here.

If you believe in Thorograph sheets as I do, Ace is NOT faster then EC, he is about 6 lengths behind EC actually.

The Euro's, especially the ones shipping from Europe and the Million, are extremely strong this year, but it takes an AWFUL lot to ship that far and win a race.

Scurlogue Champ · #44 08-11-2006, 02:11 PM

Well, I don't guess I believe in the thorograph sheets.

I tell you what, if EC wins I will become a believer in those sheets. Because if that is the info they are giving out, they are currently full of **** in my mind.

What do the thorograph people know about the course layouts, training programs, and condition of going that these Euros have been running in?

Do they factor that all in?

Scav · #45 08-11-2006, 02:18 PM

yeah, they have numbers for the Euros, and from what I have heard/seen/experienced, they are INCREDIBLY accurate

Scurlogue Champ · #46 08-11-2006, 02:21 PM

And just to make myself clear, I don't even consider the Euros who are coming to the Million this year to be that good.

I wouldn't back them if this were a group I in England, France, Hong Kong, or Japan.

But their second and third stringers are stronger than our top in my mind.

And the only way to find out will be on Saturday afternoon.

When superior horses meet with lesser competition, they look stunning when they win (Like Powerscourt last year) Regardless of how good they are comparapatively on an International level.

I saw Powerscourt get absolutely throttled in England several times last year prior to him making Kitten's Joy look like he was standing still. Not to mention that he did the same thing in the previous year.

And if you recall, everyone over here in the States thought Kitten's Joy could win the god damned L'Arc de Triomphe as a three year old with a leg in the air. Similar to how Barbaro was/could have been the best turf horse anyone has ever seen.

No one pays attention to the Euros, and don't really understand that our turf racing is just a different situation altogether.

The simple fact is that Barbaro would have been 10+ lengths behind the Euros on the turf, but by him beating up on some future claimers at Delaware, he is crowned a turf monster.

This is not to downgrade Barbaro, because he was excellent. But these are just facts.

Kev, surely you don't discount what I have said here. You follow turf racing and should know that what I am saying is true.

Pointg5 · #47 08-11-2006, 02:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moodwalker

And just to make myself clear, I don't even consider the Euros who are coming to the Million this year to be that good.

I wouldn't back them if this were a group I in England, France, Hong Kong, or Japan.

But their second and third stringers are stronger than our top in my mind.

And the only way to find out will be on Saturday afternoon.

When superior horses meet with lesser competition, they look stunning when they win (Like Powerscourt last year) Regardless of how good they are comparapatively on an International level.

I saw Powerscourt get absolutely throttled in England several times last year prior to him making Kitten's Joy look like he was standing still. Not to mention that he did the same thing in the previous year.

And if you recall, everyone over here in the States thought Kitten's Joy could win the god damned L'Arc de Triomphe as a three year old with a leg in the air. Similar to how Barbaro was/could have been the best turf horse anyone has ever seen.

No one pays attention to the Euros, and don't really understand that our turf racing is just a different situation altogether.

The simple fact is that Barbaro would have been 10+ lengths behind the Euros on the turf, but by him beating up on some future claimers at Delaware, he is crowned a turf monster.

This is not to downgrade Barbaro, because he was excellent. But these are just facts.

Kev, surely you don't discount what I have said here. You follow turf racing and should know that what I am saying is true.

Just because they are Euro's does not make them better...

KJ was hurt in the Million Last year...

Scurlogue Champ · #48 08-11-2006, 02:28 PM

He sure was hurt, and I think the main injury was to his pride.

Danzig · #49 08-11-2006, 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by eurobounce

This race is perfect for the Europeans coming over. Really not much pace with the exception of The Tin Man. Europeans love looping along with a pack of horses and then sprinting to the finish line. The Tin Man might get some pressure from Cosmonaut but I really doubt it. Now with so many mid pack runners, traffic is going to be a huge issue. The key to this race (and most races) is going to be the trip the horses get. Therefore this becomes a jockeys race. I think the European horses have an advantage in this type of race. The two Europeans that I love in this race are Ace and even thought Rene is riding, I love Soldier Hollow. I like Cacique, but I am not going to get much value on him and I have him having an equal chance of winning with Ace and Soldier Hollow. So I will take the the two value plays.

NOTE: Dont be surpised to see The Tin Man go wire to wire.

it may not be a perfect set up for the euros...they generally prefer a course with cut in the ground, and turfers are very, very picky about their ground. if it doesn't suit, they won't run as well..you can see some really good turf horses look like cheap claimers if they don't like the course.

and yeah, they love to lope early and close with a rush...if the tin man can set an easy, relaxed pace, affirmed will be moving back up the sires list. and THAT i would love to see!

Danzig · #50 08-11-2006, 07:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Habersham000

scav why you tossing gorella? i don't think an extra half furlong with be a problem for her

i can see tossing her...if she has any traffic trouble at all, she'll be a short miss instead of barely a winner. extra distance shouldn't be a problem.

i'd like to see wend find the winners circle again. shame melhor couldn't come out and play.

as for who i think will win....film maker.

Gander · #51 08-11-2006, 07:46 PM

Kittens Joy would never have beaten Powerscourt no matter what. They ran a hurt horse? I always thought the horse was overrated.

randallscott35 · #52 08-11-2006, 07:48 PM

I really like Ace in here. I know he hasn't won in a long time but that doesn't bother me. Him and Cacique boxed with Touch of Land and a few others underneath.

randallscott35 · #53 08-11-2006, 07:48 PM

I really like Ace in here. I know he hasn't won in a long time but that doesn't bother me. Him and Cacique boxed with Touch of Land and a few others underneath.

I have no clue why it posted this twice.

Danzig · #54 08-11-2006, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Kittens Joy would never have beaten Powerscourt no matter what. They ran a hurt horse? I always thought the horse was overrated.

apparently running second in a bc race automatically catapults you into rarified air and a guaranteed HOY nod the next year.....

perhaps people should read the prospectus before investing--'past performance is no guarantee of future results'

jpops757 · #55 08-12-2006, 11:37 AM

Everyone is capping the horses and expecting a performance , Something very few have mentioned is the course and the condition. Look at he peformance on firm courses and I think you can forsee several tosses because of the non performance on firm footing. Another note, why did Pletcher bring EC instead of taking the more convient Sar race? Maybe GPKs EC is the obvious pick. A lot of very nice Euros have come over in the Past and let Arlington compromise there chances. Most that have had any success have come over and prepped a race or 2. Class can be seen in the pedigree. Form can be seen in PPs, but adaptability to US racing and Arlington in paticular is the big unknown.

randallscott35 · #56 08-12-2006, 05:26 PM

With 15 minutes to post I am changing to Phoenix Reach. At 14-1, he has to be used.

randallscott35 · #57 08-12-2006, 05:49 PM

Great race. Lone speed. Cacique ran great. English Channel, Kev, not as good.

Just kidding my friend.