Mine That Bird - Page 3

dalakhani · #41 08-23-2009, 01:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

how fast people forget. she was life and death at the wire in the preakness. and the travers is another 1/16. it was the only race thats been close for her this year. i hope he runs, and rachel too, that procedure usually moves horses up. with quality road in there, the pace will be legit if not quick. thats all this horse needs. a mile and a quarter and targets tiring out. his last two trips were terrible, moved up prematuraly in both. if all these horses run, he will be the FORGOTTEN ONE. its got value written all over it. i figured he would lose at that bullring in west virginia(i was hoping). if he does run the price just went up. i'll be laughing all the way to the window after. his last race at this distance was an absolute laugher. if he does enter this guy talking just added a couple more points on the board. which is fine by me.

Life and death? LOL

letswastemoney · #42 08-23-2009, 02:48 AM

The good thing if you like Mine That Bird is....it's unlikely he'll be "ridden incorrectly" three straight times, so odds are Mike Smith will wait for the right moment this time....whether it's good enough or not.

Gander · #43 08-23-2009, 08:26 AM

I dont know why they would put Mike Smith on Mine that Bird again, when there are so many better jockeys already at Saratoga that will no doubt be rideless for the Travers. Coming to mind would be guys like Castellano, Chavez, Lezcano and C Velasquez. What is the huge appeal with Mike Smith that anybody would want to foot the expense of shipping him in?

cakes44 · #44 08-23-2009, 08:35 AM

Chavez?

TheSpyder · #45 08-23-2009, 08:39 AM

Chop Chop is riding great right now. Finally injury free for the first time in a long time. Has had some nice winners at Toga.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Chavez?

Gander · #46 08-23-2009, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Chavez?

Ya Chavez. Hes been riding great in the last few months. Turf and dirt. You give him a live mount and he'll be there at the end. He doesnt give 1/4 of the live mounts Smith gets. Hes not spoon fed 3/5 shots like Zenyatta.
Smith had his chance with the Bird and he didnt exactly give him the best of rides. Hes a good jockey, but is he worthy of being flown in...for any race?

the_fat_man · #47 08-23-2009, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

The good thing if you like Mine That Bird is....it's unlikely he'll be "ridden incorrectly" three straight times, so odds are Mike Smith will wait for the right moment this time....whether it's good enough or not.

Watch Smith's ride on Good Time Sally yesterday and tell me if you think that's a jock with over 20 years experience. Probably 99% of the trainers out there would think that Smith did nothing wrong (had the horse OUTSIDE) in what was an absolutely brutal ride.

Fair odds on this horse, with Smith up, in the Travers should probably be > 10:1.

Danzig · #48 08-23-2009, 09:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Life and death? LOL

CSC · #49 08-23-2009, 09:54 AM

When or if Rachel Alexandra runs in the Travers, I would think the odds will be attractive for any of the the others if you plan on betting against her.

freddymo · #50 08-23-2009, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

LOL I agree he is more Turd then horse, but Serling was talking him up a bit the other day. Whoever he likes get's bet.

I like Summer Bird a lot. He really is a great looking colt. I thought his Haskell was way better then it looked. He will love the added distance and he really had zero chance in the Haskell with the race dynamics, not too mention Rachel. I want no part of Quality Road who will be looking to get 1 1/4 off a sizzling 6.5f.. These aren't the odd days when Pletcher's just ran off the screen, I would expect him to be a bit to keen early and fading late. This doesn't mean Quality Road suck just that it will be hard for him to peak in Travers.

reese · #51 08-23-2009, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

I dont know why they would put Mike Smith on Mine that Bird again, when there are so many better jockeys already at Saratoga that will no doubt be rideless for the Travers. Coming to mind would be guys like Castellano, Chavez, Lezcano and C Velasquez. What is the huge appeal with Mike Smith that anybody would want to foot the expense of shipping him in?

Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

Travis Stone · #52 08-23-2009, 11:36 AM

Life and death in the Preakness would have been a nose, but with another 16th of a mile, the result could have easily gone the other way.

Gander · #53 08-23-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reese

[/b]

Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.

I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY. My guess is middle of the standings at best.

ARyan · #54 08-23-2009, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reese

Ever hear about the HOF? Which of the jocks YOU cited are IN the HOF?

ARyan · #55 08-23-2009, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

The HOF didnt seem to matter in the West Virginia Derby, Smith didnt time it right at all. Borel gave him a crappy ride in the Belmont. Time before that Smith again didnt give the horse a chance (Preakness).

What makes you so sure a guy not in the HOF like Chavez or Lezcano couldnt do any better aboard this horse? Give me a break, its not like this horse has been give good rides and just come up short.

I'd like to see what Mike Smith could do day to day riding in NY. My guess is middle of the standings at best.

My guess is below Mike Luzzi, slightly above Morales.

CSC · #56 08-23-2009, 11:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Life and death in the Preakness would have been a nose, but with another 16th of a mile, the result could have easily gone the other way.

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

Gander · #57 08-23-2009, 11:51 AM

From everything I have heard from people close to the decision makers is there is very little chance you'll see her in the Travers. Its between the Woodward and PA Derby. Of course I hope I am wrong and she shows up next weekend.

They say that her last workout was her best ever and it could be a huge mistake to wait 1 extra week to run her. Shes ready to run now. The Travers comes up as perfect timing. Would be a race for the ages.

Travis Stone · #58 08-23-2009, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

You have to be careful with these words... lots of Rachel fans out there (myself included). But, I agree. I thought the same thing about Zenyatta a few weeks ago, but she overcame and often times the great ones do but I'd be willing to take my chances.

If you consider the Haskell... sure, the fractions were awfully quick, but Munnings held on for third. The difference between the Haskell/Preakness was there were no quality closers in the Haskell. In the Preakness, Mine That Bird put in a legitimate run and almost got there.

My ultimate opinion on all of this is that Rachel Alexandra should be in the Travers because it's the Travers. There's a Woodward next year for her. And plus, Quality Road, whom I believe is an extremely talented race horse, is the only one she hasn't beat and I would like to see the match-up. I know that Quality Road could be light on seasoning but that nagging "what if" is out there.

I get the Kensei argument and the stud value for winning a grade one, but Jess Jackson wrote a $10 million check, so the stud value and wishing the purses were higher stuff is weak in my opinion. Money is not a concern. Then again, he's a business man, and I can't fault that line of thinking.

Only in horse racing can the best horse have legitimate reasoning for skipping the biggest races. In any other sport the biggest events will have the biggest stars - guaranteed. Barring injury, the US Open will never not have Tiger Woods etc.

NTamm1215 · #59 08-23-2009, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Personally I can't wait to bet against Rachel, she's had one great scenario after the other with the only adversity coming in the Preakness. She's going into the Travers(?) as the big name, everyone's favorite horse, that she's going to be overbet, if she gets abit of adversity the result could be as close as The Preakness that any value bettor must be salavating at the chance to take her on.

You think your horse Summer Bird could reverse that decision on Rachel? I mean he probably cooled out great after the Haskell considering he felt a good gust as she absolutely blew his doors off.

NT

the_fat_man · #60 08-23-2009, 12:10 PM

How was his Haskel better than it looked? He's pushed around the track by Kent and is only able to clear the distance challenged Munnings late stretch. What dynamics? He had ZERO shot to win the race and ran where he should've, 2nd. He's supposed to be 2nd by default in that race. And, unless he does a disappearing act on the rail at the key point of the Travers, in others words, doesn't run when ALL the others are running, and is then able to last move them, he has ZERO shot. The Travers might just be the best race of the year for me. 1st I'll get to see the FAST QR punk out (unless the old Pletcher juice is restocked) and then, I'll get to see this plug, SB, get his punk ass kicked real good. It'll be a fine day in the BEYER FREE part of the handicapping world.