Rachel Alexandra to Woodward

[Gander]

Originally Posted by CSC

I think it's a fair question, if Commentator had not retired would Jackson still have made this decision. Regardless if he has lost a step or not, he would have presented a unique set of problems for her that not too many horses could.

Indeed, because of his running style. But even at his best, did he ever really beat the best competition when put in the toughest spots (save for the first time he won the Whitney)? It seems like he was most brilliant when he made easy leads against the lesser fields.

Given the hypothetcial both horses at their best, I still think Rachel would power on by. Thats not really a diss on Commentator, shes just in a different league than anyone else.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Gander

Indeed, because of his running style. But even at his best, did he ever really beat the best competition when put in the toughest spots (save for the first time he won the Whitney)? It seems like he was most brilliant when he made easy leads against the lesser fields.

Given the hypothetcial both horses at their best, I still think Rachel would power on by. Thats not really a diss on Commentator, shes just in a different league than anyone else.

I see the apparitions of Exceller and Dare And Go as you describe this action.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by boswd

Sure the public who knows and understands beyer figures but not Linda, Sally, Tommy and Steve who come up to Saratoga for a day out and go to the Travers to see the Kentucky Derby winner and ask people next to them on how to bet a Pick 3 or what's the difference between a Quinella and an Exacta.

See what I mean, Saratoga especially The Traver's draws in soooo many people who don't know alot about the Sport but its a great day to go up to the Spa and enjoy themselves. Which is great.

So with all those people betting along sides the knowledgable bettor I'm guessing MTB will go off under 5-1.

Yup like Steve Crist said in one of his books about Saratoga, I am not quoting him exactly, is that Saratoga is his favorite meet to bet because of all the money in the pools from vacationers, etc. Folks will toss money at Mine That Bird because of The Derby. Should be a fun betting race. If I see 9/5 or better on Quality Road I may drop a couple $20's on a win bet.

[2MinsToPost]

I need to tread carefully on this race because of what happened with The Whitney - when I saw 2-1 on Commen I dropped a handful of $20's on a win bet because I thought that was the best value I had seen in a while on as close to a sure thing. We all know how that ended, but of course he was what 8 years old?

[Gander]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

I need to tread carefully on this race because of what happened with The Whitney - when I saw 2-1 on Commen I dropped a handful of $20's on a win bet because I thought that was the best value I had seen in a while on as close to a sure thing. We all know how that ended, but of course he was what 8 years old?

Its a tough racket Curt, aint it?

I made the mistake of think Commentator was "dead on the board" last year when he was sent off at 5/1 and crushed the field. This year he was equally as "dead on the board" at 2/1 and ran to it. I thought he should have been 6/5 against that field, albeit he hasnt been all that good as an 8 year old.

9/5 would be a tough price to take on any horse in the Travers, especially on a horse (QR) who lacks the conditioning all the others have. I can see the potential for greatness, but 9/5 or even 2/1 would be a huge bet against for me in this particular race.

I've learned to appreciate the talent both Birds and I think when this race is over one of them will be in the Winner's Circle, and maybe even a bird exacta.

Leaning towards Mine that Bird and may take a shot at a win bet if his price is good.

[tector]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Yup like Steve Crist said in one of his books about Saratoga, I am not quoting him exactly, is that Saratoga is his favorite meet to bet because of all the money in the pools from vacationers, etc. Folks will toss money at Mine That Bird because of The Derby. Should be a fun betting race. If I see 9/5 or better on Quality Road I may drop a couple $20's on a win bet.

I think you guys are dating yourselves a bit here. For example, look at Saturday's betting.

On track $4.2m

Off track $14.7m

And how much of that $4.2 is the "idiot" money--maybe half, at best? (I think quite a bit less, actually).

Sorry, out of $19m, $2m of dumb tourist money cannot push the odds around that much (you also have to consider that some of the dumb money is going to wind up in the right spots, if even for the "wrong" reasons).

It is 2009, guys, not 1989.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by tector

I think you guys are dating yourselves a bit here. For example, look at Saturday's betting.

On track $4.2m

Off track $14.7m

And how much of that $4.2 is the "idiot" money--maybe half, at best? (I think quite a bit less, actually).

Sorry, out of $19m, $2m of dumb tourist money cannot push the odds around that much (you also have to consider that some of the dumb money is going to wind up in the right spots, if even for the "wrong" reasons).

It is 2009, guys, not 1989.

While I completely agree with you I wouldn't think it's ridiculous to say that the same foolish dollars that will be bet on MTB because he's the Derby winner on-track won't also be wagered at simulcast facilities.

He's going to be a woefully short price relative to his chances of winning IMO.

NT

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I know the older males will all carry 126lbs ... but will RA be in at 118lbs or 116lbs?

[Gander]

I wonder how Rachel going in the Woodward will affect the field size?

There were horses being entered becaue they were coming off good races and this was the next logical place to run (Cool Coal man, Bullsbay), there were going to be a few shippers....

Now, what do you think the field size will be and who will be the definites?

[tector]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

While I completely agree with you I wouldn't think it's ridiculous to say that the same foolish dollars that will be bet on MTB because he's the Derby winner on-track won't also be wagered at simulcast facilities.

He's going to be a woefully short price relative to his chances of winning IMO.

NT

I agree with you--he will attract softer money everywhere because of his Derby win, but that will have little to with the "dumb tourists at the Spa" argument, which is really dated.

[Gander]

Do you really think all the money bet on Mine that Bird is dumb money and based on just 1 race?

I mean its not like he ran horrible in the Preakness or Belmont. And one can argue that he didnt get the best of rides (timing wise) in either race.

I'm not a huge fan of MTB but I think hes backed up his Derby win with at the very least some very competitive efforts and shown that he really does have a nice late kick.

Is he the worst play in the world given the fact that QR has run only once since March, and that was in a sprint?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gander

I wonder how Rachel going in the Woodward will affect the field size?

There were horses being entered becaue they were coming off good races and this was the next logical place to run (Cool Coal man, Bullsbay), there were going to be a few shippers....

Now, what do you think the field size will be and who will be the definites?

i read the other day that at least one trainer was considering the woodward for his horse-if rachel did NOT run.

bullsbad, macho again, it's a bird, cool coal man are supposed to be there.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by tector

I agree with you--he will attract softer money everywhere because of his Derby win, but that will have little to with the "dumb tourists at the Spa" argument, which is really dated.

Very true.

Keep in mind that Mine That Bird, in his most recent start, brought in over 20K people to the sh!thole to end all sh!tholes .. Mountaineer Park .. and Big Drama went off favorite ... not the horse that won the Derby big, just missed in the Preakness, and supposedly should have won the Belmont easily if not for a stupid ride.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gander

Do you really think all the money bet on Mine that Bird is dumb money and based on just 1 race?

I mean its not like he ran horrible in the Preakness or Belmont. And one can argue that he didnt get the best of rides (timing wise) in either race.

I'm not a huge fan of MTB but I think hes backed up his Derby win with at the very least some very competitive efforts and shown that he really does have a nice late kick.

Is he the worst play in the world given the fact that QR has run only once since March, and that was in a sprint?

no, he's not. i believe in the upcoming race, he's the only horse victorious at 10f?

pletcher doesn't sound exactly confident about quality road in here.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

He's going to be a woefully short price relative to his chances of winning IMO.

NT

While I'd never touch this horse with Smith up at anything LESS than 10:1, how woeful exactly, otherwise, are his chances? If QR is 'short', who does that leave that can outrun a poodle? He'll bury SB with anything resembling a decently timed ride, and when Kensei turns for home this time, assuming we don't get one of the NYRA super duper special speedball bias tracks, it won't be Flat Bold coming to get him. There's enough pace in the race that if anyone other than a ****** were riding him, the horse couldn't help but fall into a perfect setup.

P.S. he didn't appear to handle the track at MNR last out.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

While I'd never touch this horse with Smith up at anything LESS than 10:1, how woeful exactly, otherwise, are his chances? If QR is 'short', who does that leave that can outrun a poodle? He'll bury SB with anything resembling a decently timed ride, and when Kensei turns for home this time, assuming we don't get one of the NYRA super duper special speedball bias tracks, it won't be Flat Bold coming to get him. There's enough pace in the race that if anyone other than a ****** were riding him, the horse couldn't help but fall into a perfect setup.

P.S. he didn't appear to handle the track at MNR last out.

Good post. Couldnt agree more but I would take a shot at 4/1. I think thats more than fair, even with Smith riding. I love Quality Road as a racehorse but I have a bad feeling about him in this race.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

If Commentator was his old self do you think they would have sent RA to the Woodward?

Which horse the one that had 9 of his 14 wins in Ny Bred races and or Opt Claiming(five horse fields) or the 4 year old who won the Whitney on a unchallenged lead?

[tector]

Originally Posted by Gander

Do you really think all the money bet on Mine that Bird is dumb money and based on just 1 race?

I mean its not like he ran horrible in the Preakness or Belmont. And one can argue that he didnt get the best of rides (timing wise) in either race.

I'm not a huge fan of MTB but I think hes backed up his Derby win with at the very least some very competitive efforts and shown that he really does have a nice late kick.

Is he the worst play in the world given the fact that QR has run only once since March, and that was in a sprint?

Obviously it would depend on his price. Give me the right price and I'LL bet on him. But Derby winners almost always take more money than they should.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Which horse the one that had 9 of his 14 wins in Ny Bred races and or Opt Claiming(five horse fields) or the 4 year old who won the Whitney on a unchallenged lead?

Wasn't it shocking to see that KICKBACK specialist actually trying to fight back in the lane? You'd think he'd found some nuts.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

While I'd never touch this horse with Smith up at anything LESS than 10:1, how woeful exactly, otherwise, are his chances? If QR is 'short', who does that leave that can outrun a poodle? He'll bury SB with anything resembling a decently timed ride, and when Kensei turns for home this time, assuming we don't get one of the NYRA super duper special speedball bias tracks, it won't be Flat Bold coming to get him. There's enough pace in the race that if anyone other than a ****** were riding him, the horse couldn't help but fall into a perfect setup.

P.S. he didn't appear to handle the track at MNR last out.

I will take Summer Bird vs. Mine That Breathing even up. loser has to send 100 bucks to Byk made out to a TB rescue charity? You In?