Zenyatta

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by tector

Zenyatta is now likely to be more horribly overbet than even before. So I learned that you must try to beat her or sit out the race. I actually sat out the Ladies Classic today, which preserved my gigantic $3 profit (thanks, She Be Wild). (Actually I had a casino Twin Q alive into the 9th race--it started with the 5th--but could only get one of my horses in the final half).

Damn BC also distracted me from betting the Ack Ack at CD--my 10-1 choice won, naturally.

No matter how good Zenyatta is, and she is way better than the 97's beyer has been giving her, you must bet against her in this race, its pure mathematics. She is going to be overbet from what I can see (I was sure wrong on how smart the public is) and her chances of winning are no where near 33% or so.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI

How about giving an opinion before the race instead of criticizing others for something that happened years ago.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I can buy that, but that was on the turn when most horses are going to make a move in that race. The pace was fair IMO.

really, fair pace? it was the weirdest race of the day. they went 45 and change. horses that were 6 lenghts behind were not going to make that distance at that pace. every other race was inside speed, even the marathon winner rode the rail closing. when that horse ran off, it was a gift to the winner. the field was not that good to begin with and one of the favorites ran off. music note did not run good and was steadied a little, it left the race wide open. i would not draw any conclusions after that mess. from what i saw if the pace is normal, tactical speed is really good inside. that was the only race that fell apart, the pace was ridiculous.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

really, fair pace? it was the weirdest race of the day. they went 45 and change. horses that were 6 lenghts behind were not going to make that distance at that pace. .

I am not sure if I can agree, take Rainbow View, widely regarded as a contender, she was close to the pace...

She went the half in 47 4/5 and 111 3/5ths.........I dont see how that would not be overcome by a horse in form, now she faded but thats not crazy pace. In fact those are about the fractions of a 2 year old filly who ended up winning earlier. Fast yes, crazy fall apart fast for the middle of the pack, I just see it different. I think the best horse, on this surface, won.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Maybe not quite as much about Zenyatta as some may think .. but we did learn something about her chances tomorrow.

I posted the following a week or so ago ...




I'm not so sure Zenyatta is as much of a slave to pace as Life Is Sweet is ... however, after watching the Distaff, it should be crystal clear that Zenyatta is way better than the two extremely mediocre looking races on paper that she has run in her last two starts.

However, just because Life Is Sweet got a gift from heaven race shape in the Distaff ... doesn't mean Zenyatta will get the same in the Classic .. in fact, unless Regal Ransom and Quality Road do something really stupid .. she might be subjected to another slow pace... though probably not as slow of a pace as the one that made Life Is Sweet lose soundly to Lethal Heat twice.. and get drubbed by Cocoa Beach over the same track a few weeks ago.

Had Lethal Heat finished 2nd today ... I think that would have been a really great win for Zenyatta's chances tomorrow. That certainly didn't happen. Yet it's hardly any knock to Zenyatta's chances tomorrow either ... LH could just be long in the tooth from a tough Barry Abrams campaigin.

All in all ... I think we learned for certain..

* That Life Is Sweet is a VERY dangerous horse when she gets a strong pace. She's a very mediocre one when she gets no pace.

* We learned for 100% certain that Zenyatta is better than her last two races.

What we don't know is what kind of pace Zenyatta gets tomorrow ... surely nothing like the one Careless Jewel helped setup for LIS today.

I'm still going to try and beat Zenyatta tomorrow ... but I won't be all fired up to bet against her.

Now if you guys will excuse me for the rest of the night ... I have to go out and try and make an even bigger fool of myself in Vegas tonight than I normally do posting here.

Life Is Sweet is not a slave to pace. The reason Life Is Sweet won today had very little to do with the pace. They could have run the half in :49 today and she still would have won. She won the El Encino last year coming from dead last into a :50 half. The reason Life Is Sweet hadn't been running well lately had nothing to do with pace. I picked her to win today(Dunbar is my witness), because she was finally staring to look like her old self again.

Santa Anita has always been her favorite track. She was practically unbeatable at Santa Anita during the winter/spring meet. She regressed a little bit at Hollywood and at Del Mar she went way down hill. She trained really poorly down there and didn't like the track at all. One of my best friends is good friends with Wygod. Going into her last race, I asked him how she was doing because I know that she is a much better filly at Santa Anita. He said she was doing a little better but still had not fully recuperated from Del Mar and was not doing nearly as well as earlier in the year. She didn't end up running particularly well that day. At that point I would have given her very little chance today. But I saw her work the other day and I thought she worked great. So I called my friend again to ask him if they thought the filly had moved forward since that last race. He told me that she had moved way forward since her last race and was training like her old self again. That's why I bet her today. I don't think the pace had anything to do with her win today. Don't get me wrong, a fast pace certainly makes things easier for her but she doesn't have to have a fast pace to win.

If you look at her winning races, you will see that when she fires, she comes home extremely fast. At Santa Anita earlier in the year, in the El Encino she came from dead last on a :50 half-mile and won. She ran her final 1/8th of a mile in :11 1/5 that day. She didn't have that explosive kick in her last race. In her last race, they went the half in :49 2/5, which was a similar pace to the El Encino, yet in her last race she only came home in around :12 2/5 or so. She just wasn't the same horse that day. And that's not really a big surprise. The connections said that she wasn't training great going into that race. Yet going into today's race, they said she was training great, like her old self.

[johnny pinwheel]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

I am not sure if I can agree, take Rainbow View, widely regarded as a contender, she was close to the pace...

She went the half in 47 4/5 and 111 3/5ths.........I dont see how that would not be overcome by a horse in form, now she faded but thats not crazy pace. In fact those are about the fractions of a 2 year old filly who ended up winning earlier. Fast yes, crazy fall apart fast for the middle of the pack, I just see it different. I think the best horse, on this surface, won.

you are right, that horse loves the track. but, i still disagree about the pace. the second and third quarter were as fast or faster than the sprint run minutes before. when the horses caught up to the loose horse there was still alot of race left. by the end there were 6 tired horse and two that were still running. when 6 out of eight horses are "dead" on their feet halfway down the stretch i think the pace took something out of them. you are right though, that horse could of been bet, i didn't like her.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI

So Andy Beyer has no creditability because of his opinion of a race 20 years ago?

And what qualifies Gorgeous as an Eastern filly?