2/20 (FG): Risen Star (G2); Mineshaft, FG H., SBD (G3's)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

You think this horse really wants to route?

We had this discussion before....

posts 6 through 9

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33477

[FGFan]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Ok, I suppose I need to admit that I was wrong - sort of. There is no way this horse goes 1 1/4 - I can't see him getting 1 1/8 well either. The final time was slow and no one did anything behind him - I would rather see DM kept sprinting, especially since Todd's A horse won the FOY so impressively.

Originally Posted by Betsy

You think this horse really wants to route? In looking at the race again, he ran fine.....he did spurt away from his rivals when he needed to. However, I didn't think he ran like he definitely wanted more ground. I will admit that the FG stretch is not conducive to front runners, though from what I've read, the track was speed favoring today. In any case, with his running style, DM will get fried in the Derby.

The times were not slow they were quite average as Bid said it was a mild pace but not slow. I don't like to see them go to fast in this race another one is yet to come in 4 weeks.

And front runners can do quite well on the FG stretch as long as they have not spent themselves just trying to get there and are not in immeninent danger of stopping. A horse that wants to stretch out will relish the FG stretch. And of course the FG stretch has enough ground to favor a deep closer.

I think Tempted toTapit and Discreetly Mine both ran nice races in preps for what is coming up, nice lessons learned from today.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

We had this discussion before....

posts 6 through 9

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=33477

I forgot about that, lol

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by FGFan

The times were not slow they were quite average as Bid said it was a mild pace but not slow. I don't like to see them go to fast in this race another one is yet to come in 4 weeks.

And front runners can do quite well on the FG stretch as long as they have not spent themselves just trying to get there and are not in immeninent danger of stopping. A horse that wants to stretch out will relish the FG stretch. And of course the FG stretch has enough ground to favor a deep closer.

I think Tempted toTapit and Discreetly Mine both ran nice races in preps for what is coming up, nice lessons learned from today.

True about the time - the Tiffany Lass was slow, but it turns out that the Risen Star was only about a tick slower than the Mineshaft.

What you say about the FG stretch makes sense, but DM will have to ration his speed the same way if he's to get the job done in the LA Derby. I have no problem with DM setting a slow/mild pace because it's not like he has to prove he's speedy. My concern is in the Derby, where he'd be cooked on the front end. That said, I wonder if Pletcher is dead set on DM as a front runner; the colt ran pretty well in the Belmont Futurity and in the Champagne coming from just off the pace.

I was definitely dead wrong about Tempted to Tapit (and gladly so, as I love Tapit). I don't know how good he is, but he's better than an Aqueduct-in-winter 3 year old.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

My concern is in the Derby, where he'd be cooked on the front end.

While he very well might prove he belongs in the field - he's not a horse with any chance at winning the Ky Derby.

I realize he was stretching out from 6f today - and has a right to improve with the foundation todays race will provide .... but he got a free ride on the lead today and still only managed to finish 10.5 lengths in front of 10th place finisher Hotep...who did heroically happen to beat a pair of 100/1+ shots home.

[Linny]

I didn't expect DM to go that slow and it looks like TtT was being schooled. Cohen didn't hustle him out like he wanted the lead, in fact he settled him in just behind the pace. I thought that TtTran on OK considering the step up in class and the ship to NoLa etc. He may not be a "Derby horse" but he learned to run on while not on the lead.
For a 1st route/2 turn effort, DM ran well. TAP has been very happy with how he progressed after his bumpy seasonal debut and while trainer quotes are like political speeches in my eyes.
Now TAP needs to figure out what happens when Rule, Eskendereya and DM try to duke it out on the pace in Louisville.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

While he very well might prove he belongs in the field - he's not a horse with any chance at winning the Ky Derby.

I realize he was stretching out from 6f today - and has a right to improve with the foundation todays race will provide .... but he got a free ride on the lead today and still only managed to finish 10.5 lengths in front of 10th place finisher Hotep...who did heroically happen to beat a pair of 100/1+ shots home.

So you think he wants to route, but you don't think he belongs in the Derby or with the other classy 3 year olds? Exactly what would you do with him then if you're not going to sprint him?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

So you think he wants to route, but you don't think he belongs in the Derby or with the other classy 3 year olds? Exactly what would you do with him then if you're not going to sprint him?

A.) There's very little money to be made sprinting him.

B.) There's A LOT of money to be made routing him.

C.) He is a better horse routing than sprinting because he has proven repeatedly he can rate and paces are slower in routes.

D.) You are make believing that he has distance limitations because of how he ran one race when he battled Super Saver into defeat and came up empty late in a sneaky good effort.

E.) The best shot he has to win a Triple Crown race is probably the Belmont Stakes. If he gets a free ride on the lead like Da Tara got - he will run like a horse who has been begging to run 12 furlongs his whole life. Also, a lot of the true speed to pressure him will be off the triple crown trial by that time.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A.) There's very little money to be made sprinting him.

B.) There's A LOT of money to be made routing him.

C.) He is a better horse routing than sprinting because he has proven repeatedly he can rate and paces are slower in routes.

D.) You are make believing that he has distance limitations because of how he ran one race when he battled Super Saver into defeat and came up empty late in a sneaky good effort.

E.) The best shot he has to win a Triple Crown race is probably the Belmont Stakes. If he gets a free ride on the lead like Da Tara got - he will run like a horse who has been begging to run 12 furlongs his whole life. Also, a lot of the true speed to pressure him will be off the triple crown trial by that time.

No, I've moved off of the distance-limitations issue; I really did want to know what you would do with him if he's not a Derby horse. I'm fine with him not going to the Derby, but unless he runs poorly next out, you know he's going.

[Danzig]

he can be a good router without being a derby horse. he can make a lot of money, while avoiding the top of the heap three year olds.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Linny

Now TAP needs to figure out what happens when Rule, Eskendereya and DM try to duke it out on the pace in Louisville.

Except the only one who might need the lead is Rule. Eskendereya has won twice without the lead and Discreetly Mine inherited the lead yesterday because the pace was soft. Eskenderya's the only one with a chance anyway.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Except the only one who might need the lead is Rule. Eskendereya has won twice without the lead and Discreetly Mine inherited the lead yesterday because the pace was soft.

And according to Pletcher and Walden Joe, even Rule doesn't have to have the lead...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

And according to Pletcher and Walden Joe, even Rule doesn't have to have the lead...

Yeah, I don't think he's one-dimensional either. I'd say there's just about zero chance the three of them will be dueling in the Derby.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he can be a good router without being a derby horse. he can make a lot of money, while avoiding the top of the heap three year olds.

That's very true. I hope he develops into a top class 3 year old, but there's nothing wrong with being just a notch below (if that ends up being the case).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Danzig

he can be a good router without being a derby horse. he can make a lot of money, while avoiding the top of the heap three year olds.

Yeah, Zanjero made over $1 million in just 8 starts as a 3yo and he was surely no better than Discreetly Mine.