How a horse improves by 20+ lengths in a month...

[the_fat_man]

Here you go.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here you go.

If you want to make The Fat Charts better .. instead of using a colored box to represent each horse and a raw 1/4 mile clocking between each call .. use a colored number of the pace figure each horse earns between each call to represent each horse.

It might take a little more time at first - but once you get it rolling it will be sweet and a great tool to use.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

That last out pace setter just won the Gr 2 stakes at FG breaking from the rail a few minutes ago.

She went from 5/1 with 5 MTP to paying just $7.80

The Fat Man will note that both horses recieved nicely timed rides from just behind the lead in their Grade 2 wins ... instead of being used hard to score wicked fast pace figures.

I wish I would have read this thread before I bet. I took the Pletcher (post 11!) along with Champagne d oro and jody slew in a box. That Champagne d oro ran a really good race although the pace was slow. I saw her break her maiden last year at del mar and bet her back just because she looked to be controlling speed.

I would certainly bet her back again. Thoughts?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I wish I would have read this thread before I bet. I took the Pletcher (post 11!) along with Champagne d oro and jody slew in a box. That Champagne d oro ran a really good race although the pace was slow. I saw her break her maiden last year at del mar and bet her back just because she looked to be controlling speed.

I would certainly bet her back again. Thoughts?

The 91 Beyer figure from Champagne D' Oro's last race - her lone dirt race - was better than any number anyone in the field had ever run.

That figure came in a 6f MSW race - which she only won by a nose - which is why you got that 12/1 price on her.

I didn't think post 10 would be as big of an issue for her as with a normal horse because of how fast she is .. she ran a pace fig of 103 for a 1/4 and 101 for a half in the 6f race... that speed helps get some inside position without having to be used up to do so.

I think she proved today that she can stay 8.5 furlongs...but obviously the value won't be there next time like it was today... because in the eyes of a lot of bettors she will have answered the class and distance question with this race.

[the_fat_man]

I think that if the 4 and the 11 don't keep Albarado pinned inside until they enter, he bids even more prematurely and collapses the race. And rather than 1-2, they go 3-4. At it was, he still almost managed to blow the race and put his horse and CD under undue extra pressure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Stay Put (10/1 on the ML) is a classic example of a horse like Ice Box that has slow numbers - but earned them with very unfavorable setups and figures to get a great setup tomorrow. He just doesn't have a race anywhere on his form that tells me for sure that he can win if he gets things his way like he figures to.

Here are the pace figures for the Silverbulletday and Risen Star:

Silverbulletday: 1/4: 106 1/2: 102 3/4: 108 Final: 86
Risen Star: 1/4: 76 1/2: 77 3/4: 85 Final: 94


Obviously the most striking thing is how supersonic fast the Silverbulletday was for 6fs and how it totally fell apart in the final 2.5fs.

Devil May Care was denied the lead after 6f in the SBD - but would have been loose on a 8 length lead in the Risen Star .. and that's not even factoring in that she broke a step slow and was caught 5w, 3w on the turns. She could have been 12 in front with just 2.5fs to go before stopping to a virtual walk in the stretch.

One-run closers like Stay Put and Ron The Greek have no chance in a race when the speed horses are full of run late ... just as Devil May Care and Quiet Temper had no chance of seeing out 8.5fs when they're going way too damn fast in the opposite of the extreme type race shape.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Stay Put (10/1 on the ML) is a classic example of a horse like Ice Box that has slow numbers - but earned them with very unfavorable setups and figures to get a great setup tomorrow. He just doesn't have a race anywhere on his form that tells me for sure that he can win if he gets things his way like he figures to.

Other than the Risen Star and the CD mdn race, where are the unfavorable setups? I don't think it's a question of whether this horse can run if he gets a good setup, as he's shown that he can run without necessarily getting one (excluding the RS, where nothing came off the pace). I suspect the race will fall apart and while I think SP will be right there, I'm also not convinced that Ron the Greek can't finish with him; or that, maybe, Fly Down will beat them to the punch with an earlier off the pace move.

[Thunder Gulch]

Hey Drugs....while I am enjoying the conversation in this thread and I do think it's really funny that that creepy guy uses his own photo as his avatar, it's starting to distract me. Please consider a change.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Oscar would never resort to bush league tactics like claim and drop like these 30% hacks do now. All other factors were moot. Distance, class, post, jockey, time between races, etc. meaningless.
Didnt even bother to send them to the track.

He didn't have to..