Keeneland Spring notes - Page 2

philcski · #21 04-18-2010, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Good stuff phil.

Thanks!

*******
Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY

This one goes in the first today and is 7/2 ML. Somewhat chilly and calm conditions today, I expect the track to play fair.

dalakhani · #22 04-18-2010, 01:09 PM

Good call Phil. Jockey made a way early move.

philcski · #23 04-18-2010, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Good call Phil. Jockey made a way early move.

Yeah, bummer. I bet that one pretty heavy WP and in doubles... probably get my money back instead of making a nice score.

philcski · #24 04-19-2010, 01:21 PM

Day 10 4/16/10: Speed was good in routes based on a three race sample size (one of them a horse that towered over the rest, so essentially 2 races) but the track was relatively fair in sprints.

LAND OF THE GIANTS could not have been more impressive. Set reasonable but quick fractions and just annihilated this field, I would not be surprised to see this one win some stakes soon.

Pretty weak group in the 3rd and outside of the top 2 I would avoid all the others going forward. SYLVAN SAINT was wide throughout and deserves another shot but the rest are a toss in similar conditions.

Merry go round race in the 4th with virtually no passing; the entire group was unimpressive but I'd draw a line through the race for all.

Even though the time doesn't reflect it, I'd argue that the 5th was the better division of the 30K MCL's. RAMYA ran much better than the final margin indicates; she held well till the top of the stretch with decent fractions. MINTS N THE VALLEY made a little move mid race and while she may not win next out she is a threat to hit the board at a big price if she can sustain it a little longer. MIHRIMAH deserves another look at CD. Discount MY FAST FRIEND and KLEA next out who showed very little with a good setup against a group they should have beaten.

Previously highlighted NEW PAIS blows away the 7th race, not a whole lot to get excited about otherwise. A NY bred, we could see this one in some NYB stakes in the future. CHAIRMAN missed the break from the inside and rallied nicely to get 3rd.

Clement runs 1-2 in the Doubledogdare; pretty unimpressive for the level, however. I'd hesitate to bet any of them in stakes going forward.

CRUZATTE was much the best in the finale, getting shuffled back down the backstretch and having to change lanes multiple times. Discount SMARMY and SATYRS, whose running line looks much better than it really was.

philcski · #25 04-22-2010, 01:43 PM

Day 11 4/17/10: Speed was A++ good on the main, was very windy from the northwest which fits the profile of when speed holds.

Upgrade those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: CONSERVATIVE, GRESHAM, DIXIE'S HOPE (***outstanding debut), and UPTOWNCHRLYBROWN.

Downgrade those that quit on or near the lead: LEJADAMI, IL GIRASOLE, OREGON LADY-IRE, CANYON DRIVE, KRYPTON, LONESOME STREET.

philcski · #26 04-22-2010, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 4 4/8/10: It doesn't take a genius to figure out that speed was very, very good. Every main track race save one was won wire to wire, with several of them a merry go round. That being said, the performance of the day, without a doubt, was ALCOMATCH in the 6th who came from dead last at the 2nd call behind what was a moderate pace. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how she did this; the performance was so far out of left field relative to the day, I want to see how the rest of the field comes back. I'd tentatively put a mark against every horse in this group except LONGBOARDER, who had a dreadful trip and looked like he had no idea what he was supposed to do yet still only got beat two lengths.

Downgrade all pace horses from today: SMARTEN DESTINY, FIREPOLE, MADMAN DIARIES, ICE MIST, CIAO BELLINO, CAT HOP*, FOUR PAWS*, TANTAMOUNT, CREEK GIRL, DR. ZIC, WITTY, SUN PENNIES, and QUEEN OF THE CREEK.
* Extra downgrade to CAT HOP and FOUR PAWS, who absolutely quit in a race they had every right to run away with, and got beaten badly by a horse who was put into a drive 4 furlongs out.

Upgrade to those that made convincing moves, particularly in the stretch: BK'S SIS' BIRTHDAY, MISS NEPAL, ORBISTON PARVA, CAVE IN, SMART SEATTLE, CAMINADORA, and SPARKY'S DREAM.

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

philcski · #27 04-23-2010, 01:30 PM

Day 12 4/18/10: Clear and cool; track played fair all day.

Pretty destructive pace battle in the 1st, would give AMAZING SAINT a second look, especially around 1 turn at CD, after putting away two challengers before giving it up late.

I don't necessarily prescribe to the bounce theory but I do believe when a horse gets everything his own way and runs a vastly improved race it's unlikely to repeat that, and is worth a stand against at a short price- and TURALLURE proved that true again in the 5th. That being said, he broke in air and probably deserves a second chance.

EARSTOYOU was ultra impressive off the layoff, but so was USHUAIA, who dueled 4/5 favorite CAUY'S HUMOR into submission. MISSY LOU clunked up for 3rd and the running line is better than the actual performance.

In the finale, upgrade SOUL OF NATAKA for Attfield (probably headed to Woodbine) who was the only horse to make up ground in a very paced race.

chucklestheclown · #28 04-24-2010, 02:17 AM

So, after 3 years, does Keeneland mean anything at Churchill?

the_fat_man · #29 04-24-2010, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I missed one here and it cost me badly- ALBERTA'S BOOK rallied from well off the pace to finish second in the 4th and came back to win the 2nd today.

This was a clear cut against-the-grainer based on the charts.

philcski · #30 04-26-2010, 02:37 PM

Day 13 4/21/10: Track played fair all day. No path or pace biases apparent.
ROBYN'S DREAM broke in air and rushed up to sit a good spot but the damage was done and the jockey didn't appear to persevere in the lane. Would draw a line through the performance.
CAJUN PRIZE got away with the most ridiculous fractions at the entire meet; 1:17 for 6 furlongs is trotter speed. Discount PROVE YOURSELF, who didn't even figure after being close to the front. Upgrade PROMISEI'LLBEHOME who was the only one who really did any running besides the winner. Bad race overall.
MUD CREEK got absolutely destroyed at the start, and never settled into stride after that. would draw a line through the performance. Upgrade FLASHY DREAM who made a nice midrace move before flattening out.
Very strong performance from MAID OF FLOWERS who went way too fast for this level and held well for 2nd. Should win next out at a similar level.
Roger Attfield continued his remarkable meet with a great performance from ERNFOLD, who was on her wrong lead half the stretch and still destroyed a decent field. Stakes contender in the future.
Awful race in the 7th where both the favorites were pulled up; would draw a line through the race and question the performance for everyone.

philcski · #31 04-26-2010, 03:16 PM

Day 14 4/22/10 Speed mildly good but not a conveyor belt. No compelling reason to upgrade or downgrade.
In race 1 the two firsters destroyed the field- in MCL races when this happens I like to mark against the remaining bunch because it means they're going to struggle to win anywhere outside of MNR or Ohio. Those were WAR SKY, LARRY APPEL, KARMA DISTRACTION, OLDBLINDNEDD.
Odd betting in the 2nd, as 5 of the 6 had run at the meet, 4 of those 5 well enough, yet the Tampa shipper goes off favored (and runs last). ALBERTA'S BOOK gets a fair track this time around and rolls to a $13.20 victory. Good performance from the 2nd and 3rd runners who dueled the entire way around FORTHEBOYSATTHEBAR and DANCING LYDIA.
Very slow and poor race in the 3rd. Downgrade all the runners beside the winner- LOOSELY, DARKEST HOUR, GERWINII, MEANDER, and DEWBERRY HILL.

Nothing interesting on the rest of the card, except LADY SHAKESPEARE is a very strong candidate to win the F&M Turf if she can continue on her current trajectory. That was an extremely good performance against a rival who had everything her way.

philcski · #32 05-08-2010, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.

The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

This has turned out to be quite a key race. 2nd place finisher Buckleupbuttercup came back to win the Eight Belles at 7-1, 3rd place finisher Dynazaper won the Edgewood at 8-5, 7th place Funny Feeling won a good optional claimer at 7-1 on Oaks day, and last place Hilda's Passion won an optional claimer at 11-1 at Arlington. Canadian Storm goes in the 10th at Churchill today, 5-1 ML in a 6 horse field, and while she looks to be in tough her performance in that race was pretty strong- had some traffic issues and still managed a 4th.

dalakhani · #33 06-02-2010, 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Day 2 4/3/10: No apparent pace biases. Track played fair all day to both speed and closers. It could be argued that the inside was better than the outside, but it was marginal. Some performances of note:
EVADE and HYRACOTHERIUM should be avoided at all costs going forward. Got away with a glacially slow first half and still packed it in without a fight in the stretch. Upgrade JAMALUDIN somewhat as he was wide and behind the slow pace, but with Ramsey/Maker he'll always get bet anyways.

HOLY MOMENT had a dreadful trip but I doubt she's good enough to win for $50MCL anyways. Would deserve a second look on the drop.

Sneaky good performance from NEW PAIS, who got shut off down the backstretch a couple times and the jock had to use horse to get through holes which left nothing in the stretch.

MUCH REJOICING is a serious filly and would very much expect this one to win a stake in the near future. I wouldn't be surprised to see her in the Eight Belles on the Derby undercard. I'd argue it was the best performance on the day.
The fact that the very moderate IT'S TEA TIME nearly got up to win the Ashland shows what a mediocre group this was, and I don't expect anything good out of any of them going forward. Very much reminds me of last year's Ashland... which I think have combined for maybe 3 total wins since then.

Looking forward to this weekend philly.