Saturday Beyers

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

There is no way they should put a 115 in the paper. If that is done, they look like fools in the future.

Blind Luck overcame a moderate pace to win from the back. There is simply no way she ran a 115 with the pace that way, or even close. I can buy a high 90s at best. I'm not saying the 94 is dead accurate, that is not possible. But I would say the chances the 94 are correct are much higher than a 115, because the chances a 115 are correct are none.

As for PA, you know why you were banned. It had ZERO to do with Beyer figures.

No, it had nothing to do with Beyers. It had everything to do with me expressing my opinion.

(And somebody's lackey misquoting me in the process.)

As for your point about them "looking like fools"... I think this is actually the problem. There is a concern they need to justify why or why not a horse repeats or doesn't repeat a performance- when they owe nothing.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Nope. . . I've never bothered to make my own figures because I have always respected the philosophy behind Beyers and the application of that philosophy into their calculations. I think there are much better places to find value in handicapping than speed figs, but I rely on them to put those other variables into context. I've only been handicapping for five years, and would never claim to be an expert in any area of the game, but I think I'm plenty intelligent enough to see that something here just doesn't make sense. More and more, we've been expected to "believe" in figs that are constantly re-adjusted and seem incongruous with logic. I know it's not easy to explain abberant figures/results--and maybe I'd run into the same problems that Beyer + Associates do if I made my own calculations--but how can we possibly believe that two horses turned in basically the exact same performances with extremely different final times without any semblance of an explanation for the abberation? Did the length of a second change for a half hour in Deleware yesterday? Like Phil said, I'd rather be given the crazy looking figs--a 115 and a 75 or whatever--and allowed to decide for myself, than to be forced to swallow a forced reconciliation made to make everything look neat and clean.

Most people would be shocked how often this is done. It only comes up in big races, but it happens a lot. The timers suck at most tracks. Run ups play a big part. The technology is there to fix these things, but the money is not.

I don't personally use Beyers, but I do make my own numbers and understand the complexities involved. I do agree about leaving obvious extreme pace scenario (fast or slow) figures alone, but Beyer doesn't so that is that. They are his figures to do what he pleases.

In this case, however, I don't think pace was even remotely an issue. It was either track maintenance or a bad clocking. It really doesn't matter which, or even if it was something else.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

Did you go back and hand time the races?

No, I have not, and to be honest it really won't matter. I may later today if I have some time. If the time came back right I would assume the track was manipulated.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

No, it had nothing to do with Beyers. It had everything to do with me expressing my opinion.

(And somebody's lackey misquoting me in the process.)

As for your point about them "looking like fools"... I think this is actually the problem. There is a concern they need to justify why or why not a horse repeats or doesn't repeat a performance- when they owe nothing.

Don't be so disingenuous. I wasn't going to bring this up, but you know (and Steve too) that you posted the OWNER of the PA board posted drunk at 3am and then deleted his threads when he sobered up. It was complete lunacy on your part, and more importantly it was unprovoked.

Since he is my friend and you post there, of course I'm going to tell him.

So he was banned at PA for posting his opinion here?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

No, I have not, and to be honest it really won't matter. I may later today if I have some time. If the time came back right I would assume the track was manipulated.

I did. They are fine. And it matters a lot.

The track was certainly weather challenged yesterday- but as you said before, it would be hard to believe they changed it THAT much in a 90 minute span and visually it didn't look much different.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Don't be so disingenuous. I wasn't going to bring this up, but you know (and Steve too) that you posted the OWNER of the PA board posted drunk at 3am and then deleted his threads when he sobered up. It was complete lunacy on your part, and more importantly it was unprovoked.

Since he is my friend and you post there, of course I'm going to tell him.

reading his posts I assumed he posted drunk all the time.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

reading his posts I assumed he posted drunk all the time.

Be careful, you may be the next one banned.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

So he was banned at PA for posting his opinion here?

Yeah, that is it. You are a genius.

[10 pnt move up]

clean up on isle 5

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

Dude, I don't know what's gotten into you, but this is way too typical these days. I get that you're an opinionated person. But YOUR opinion isn't necessarily the beliefs of everyone else. Enlighten me on why or what I'm "wrong" on.

Once again, and CJ gets it right with " disingenuous", it's not at all what has gotten into me....it's what has obviously gotten into you. I don't care, as I've learned to ascribe the opposite to everything you post to get to the truth. I give you credit for continuing the charade.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Don't be so disingenuous. I wasn't going to bring this up, but you know (and Steve too) that you posted the OWNER of the PA board posted drunk at 3am and then deleted his threads when he sobered up. It was complete lunacy on your part, and more importantly it was unprovoked.

Since he is my friend and you post there, of course I'm going to tell him.

BULLSHIT.

The FACT is you (deliberately or not) misquoted me. I said "I like the PA board but the owner posts inflammatory comments AT 3am LIKE he is drunk." Which he does- and I brought up the links when he sent me a PM. Whether or not he was actually drunk is beside the point. He says he does not drink and it is work related that he's up at that time. Fine, whatever. If somebody said that about me I wouldn't get my goddamn panties in a bunch like you did, running to tell like a little kid.

The fact that you dislike me, because I proved you very wrong the other day, made you meld several others' comments into mine- because it was the topic of discussion in that thread.

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Yeah, that is it. You are a genius.

Yes and you're a millionaire off your pace figs.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again, and CJ gets it right with " disingenuous", it's not at all what has gotten into me....it's what has obviously gotten into you. I don't care, as I've learned to ascribe the opposite to everything you post to get to the truth. I give you credit for continuing the charade.

Thanks for nothing.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Don't be so disingenuous. I wasn't going to bring this up, but you know (and Steve too) that you posted the OWNER of the PA board posted drunk at 3am and then deleted his threads when he sobered up. It was complete lunacy on your part, and more importantly it was unprovoked.

Since he is my friend and you post there, of course I'm going to tell him.

This is total bullshit, I work overnights Thur-Sat and he talks a lot of **** late at night and then its all deleted the next day. I recently pm'd him about why he darts my posts and be blames it all on you... Here are the pms-

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
Why do you delete my posts? If Im not wanted here you might as well dart me, but taking down posts that you dont like makes you a dictator and its LAME. I might have been out of line on other sites, but never here.



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Not sure what you're talking about. I don't recall deleting any of your posts...maybe it was another moderator?

I will tell you that if it was a post that consisted of nothing but an emoticon (like or ), then that's one of the other mod's pet peeves....he hates posts like that, and I can't say I disagree...

Other than that, not quite sure what you're talking about...give me specifics...

[randallscott35]

This thread wasn't really complete until RH10 commented.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

This thread wasn't really complete until RH10 commented.

its the threshold

Originally Posted by randallscott35

This thread wasn't really complete until RH10 commented.

He's posting PM's to boot.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know the admin of PA is a despicable chicken hawk.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by philcski

BULLSHIT.

The FACT is you (deliberately or not) misquoted me. I said "I like the PA board but the owner posts inflammatory comments AT 3am LIKE he is drunk." Which he does- and I brought up the links when he sent me a PM. Whether or not he was actually drunk is beside the point. He says he does not drink and it is work related that he's up at that time. Fine, whatever. If somebody said that about me I wouldn't get my goddamn panties in a bunch like you did, running to tell like a little kid.

The fact that you dislike me, because I proved you very wrong the other day, made you meld several others' comments into mine- because it was the topic of discussion in that thread.

Wow, maybe eventually you'll get something right. I'm sure Steve can retrieve the post if he wants. I certainly didn't pretend to quote you exactly (and I wasn't the only "little kid" that let Mike know), but I am 100% certain I had the gist of it right.

I honestly have no idea where you proved me wrong. Remind me. It won't be the first or last time I was wrong. I certainly didn't take it personally since I don't even remember it. I liked talking figures with you. You seemed sincere when you thanked me for telling you about the Belmont mile Beyer adjustment and I know you are pretty knowledgeable.

You seem different lately. Things changed in your life for the worse? I don't get it.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

This is total bullshit, I work overnights Thur-Sat and he talks a lot of **** late at night and then its all deleted the next day. I recently pm'd him about why he darts my posts and be blames it all on you... Here are the pms-

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985
Why do you delete my posts? If Im not wanted here you might as well dart me, but taking down posts that you dont like makes you a dictator and its LAME. I might have been out of line on other sites, but never here.



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Not sure what you're talking about. I don't recall deleting any of your posts...maybe it was another moderator?

I will tell you that if it was a post that consisted of nothing but an emoticon (like or ), then that's one of the other mod's pet peeves....he hates posts like that, and I can't say I disagree...

Other than that, not quite sure what you're talking about...give me specifics...

I have no idea if I deleted your posts. I don't recall any, unless as he says they were emoticon only. I didn't even know you posted at PA. Regardless, what does this have to do with anything now?