What Is The Fairest Turf Course?

[tiggerv]

Average field size, number of races at distance, wire-to-wire win percentage and win percentage of horses sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd at first call. Broken out by distance and firm/wet turf.

365 Day Stats (Not just current meet)

Arlington


Colonial

[Scav]

Originally Posted by tiggerv

Average field size, number of races at distance, wire-to-wire win percentage and win percentage of horses sitting 1st, 2nd or 3rd at first call. Broken out by distance and firm/wet turf.

365 Day Stats (Not just current meet)

Arlington


Colonial

Thanks for these....

Can you get a current meet one?

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

Pretty sure it's Bermuda grass. I think it looks terrible but plays very fair.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by philcski

Pretty sure it's Bermuda grass. I think it looks terrible but plays very fair.

Agreed

[Scav]

Originally Posted by philcski

Pretty sure it's Bermuda grass. I think it looks terrible but plays very fair.

You can't believe the numbers there though, all the turf numbers are 4w4w because they avoid the rail like the plague there.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by philcski

Pretty sure it's Bermuda grass. I think it looks terrible but plays very fair.

There were some times this winter when it was playing VERY unfairly.

Originally Posted by Scav

You can't believe the numbers there though, all the turf numbers are 4w4w because they avoid the rail like the plague there.

True. Plus the majority of the turf races there are complete garbage.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by Scav

Thanks for these....

Can you get a current meet one?

Yeah, I closed out of my database but I will pull them. I will pull Fairgrounds too

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

You need to break out sprint's from this, specific to 5f sprints I think. There is a massive bias in those races. I think only 2 horses have closed from less then 4 lengths in those races, and I think 20 of them have been run.

I think it skews the speed number.

Not as bad as it seems watching the races.

13 of 48 (27%) turf sprints have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call (which I know is very near the end of these sprints, but it's the best way to measure it....if a speed horse was up front and going to win, they'd likely still be there, but remember that these "style" stats are done by eye, so the speed winners really are speed winners, and likely fit the criteria listed above).

10 of 32 (31%) turf sprints at 5f have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call.

And funnily enough, Surfer Rosa has the meet record for most lengths OFF the pace at the half-mile call to have won.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Fair Grounds is a horrible turf course. It's more like a sand course.

Look at the topic title.



Don't you feel Rock Tardish??

Originally Posted by clyde

Look at the topic title.



Don't you feel Rock Tardish??

No. I didn't quote the person who mentioned Fair Grounds.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Cardus

As I scroll through this thread, I am thinking, "Fairgrounds is not on this list."

And then you agree with Mort.

Funny.

You'll get there...given the advances in modern medical technology----and so forth.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

No. I didn't quote the person who mentioned Fair Grounds.

That hurts.

[clyde]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

No. I didn't quote the person who mentioned Fair Grounds.

I give up already....find me Thebby's weasel photo.


The one with the pink lipstick.

Originally Posted by clyde

I give up already....find me Thebby's weasel photo.


The one with the pink lipstick.

[randallscott35]

Lol Coach!!!

[Scav]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Not as bad as it seems watching the races.

13 of 48 (27%) turf sprints have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call (which I know is very near the end of these sprints, but it's the best way to measure it....if a speed horse was up front and going to win, they'd likely still be there, but remember that these "style" stats are done by eye, so the speed winners really are speed winners, and likely fit the criteria listed above).

10 of 32 (31%) turf sprints at 5f have been won by horses on the lead at the half-mile call.

And funnily enough, Surfer Rosa has the meet record for most lengths OFF the pace at the half-mile call to have won.

Half mile call? Are you talking at the half mile pole or the half mile time?

The numbers I caught were W2W.

I got those stats from TSTV.com's handicapping section, which those numbers come from Bris.

I can't find the Drugs-like email I put together, the next 5f race on the turf, I'll post what they have.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by Scav

Half mile call? Are you talking at the half mile pole or the half mile time?

The numbers I caught were W2W.

I got those stats from TSTV.com's handicapping section, which those numbers come from Bris.

I can't find the Drugs-like email I put together, the next 5f race on the turf, I'll post what they have.

Half mile call, so like I said, near the end of the race -- but if a winner is listed as "speed" in the Arlington Turf Stats, then it was a speed horse up top who held on the whole way, so it's really distinction without a difference.

So the stats above are for leaders at the half-mile call, near the end of the race, but they aren't that significantly higher than the "speed" horse numbers, so the point is essentially the same, that speed horses, however you classify them, win about a third of turf sprints, any way you look at it as far as I can tell from the visual "turf stats" and the Polycapping databse.

[tiggerv]

AP Current Meet