11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's) - Page 3

blackthroatedwind · #41 10-28-2010, 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

chucklestheclown · #42 10-28-2010, 12:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

chucklestheclown · #43 10-28-2010, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

http://pdfs.thoroughbreddailynews.co...Friday2010.pdf

Thanks again MMSC!

hockey2315 · #44 10-28-2010, 01:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

blackthroatedwind · #45 10-28-2010, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

I'll have to watch the race again.

Dirt stride? I'm not that clever. But, I will say, given her results over there, she appears to handle the turf just fine.

JerseyJ · #46 10-28-2010, 07:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chucklestheclown

Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

That's how you like to handicap...it's obvious looking at the PPs does you no good in terms of picking winners so why not try it without PPs. Maybe you would fare better by picking names? Saddle Colors? Pick the Grays?

Betsy · #47 10-28-2010, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

If it matters, she's considered a very good filly overseas - one of the favorites for the Guineas. Her trainer said recently that her last was a good race, but not her best and she's thriving now. Perhaps she didn't handle the soft ground so well.......she is a big filly and considered to have a ton of potential by the Euros. She's the same as AZ Warrior to me (who I like a lot in the race); if she handles the dirt, she'll be very tough. Of course, just because she's bred for it doesn't mean she'll take to it.

NTamm1215 · #48 10-28-2010, 08:43 AM

It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

blackthroatedwind · #49 10-28-2010, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

philcski · #50 10-28-2010, 09:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Is Rightly So really going to be the ML favorite? She's a real nice filly, but I will be shocked if she wins. Unless the track is as biased as it was for her Ballerina win.

I think so. It's a very contentious group but she makes the most sense as who will be bet. That said, I'm against her- there is so much speed in here. My initial impression is this race is melting down.

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

She is some talent. Yet another case of synthetics masking true ability.

hockey2315 · #51 10-28-2010, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Mike Welsh's stuff is usually pretty good, but what the F@#$ is this?

Sweet Gypsy (Filly and Mare Turf, four furlongs in 47.40 seconds): The morning’s lone Breeders’ Cup worker came out shortly after the renovation break with jockey Robby Albarado aboard. Showing her usual speed, Sweet Gypsy zipped through an opening quarter and three-eighths in 23 and change and 34 and change, although she did tire some through a final furlong in 12.70 and during an ordinary gallop-out when pulling up five-eighths in 1:02.55. As noted earlier, although the track was listed as fast for the work there was still some moisture in it; Secret Gypsy’s only two off-the-board finishes on dirt came on wet tracks, raising the question as to whether she might have finished stronger today over a little firmer ground.

More idiocy - in Brad Free's little graded handicap thing on DRF for the Friday races, he has the "last race" for all horses coming out of the Darley Alcibiades listed as the Danny Alcibiades. Danny was a good man. . . I'm glad they named a race after him.

Travis Stone · #52 10-28-2010, 11:45 AM

Can anyone confirm the max starters for the Juvenile Turf races? I've been told/read both 12 and 14. I think it's 14 based on a quick news search, but can't find anything official.

robfla · #53 10-28-2010, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Can anyone confirm the max starters for the Juvenile Turf races? I've been told/read both 12 and 14. I think it's 14 based on a quick news search, but can't find anything official.

I read 14.... link to follow

edit: http://bcwc2010.com/the-races/

Quote:

Each race is limited to fourteen starters and if the race has more than 14 horses pre-enter, a field selection system is used to determine the starters for each race.

RockHardTen1985 · #54 10-28-2010, 12:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Obviously Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are the horses to beat in the Distaff. But I think Malibu Prayer has a shot to take them a long way. If she draws well and is ridden aggressively, she might prove tough to catch IMO.

The Mott wont be glued to her?

Travis Stone · #55 10-28-2010, 12:49 PM

Steve Crist's story in the DRF print advance says...

Quote:

Also, there will be a maximum of 14 starters in all races, whereas some turf races had been limited to 12 in the past.

Betsy · #56 10-28-2010, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

She was a buyback......

Just curious: what's the difference between AZ Warrior, who you thought was a contender in the Frizette if she preferred dirt, and this filly?