Breeders Cup A B X, Saturday only

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'll preface this comment by saying that I'm not enamored with Stay Thirsty in this spot. I thought the Iroquios/KY Jockey Club route would have been perfect for him.

However, if one were forced to make a case for him vis-a-vis Boys at Tosconova, in a race likely to feature a legit pace, Stay Thirsty's conformation and pedigree might provide a basis to think he could turn the tables in a two-turn 8.5F race where BAT has not run in nearly ten weeks. I can't imagine that Stay Thirsty will be up on the pace with his more celebrated stablemate (Uncle Mo) already there, and he's actually one of the few horses in the race that has a "classic"-type pedigree.

Stay Thirsty being kin to two slowpokes doesn't exactly make me think he's going to be a superstar going two turns.

The problem with your first sentence is that Stay Thirsty is coming off the same layoff. The biggest issue I have is that betting horses who you plan to do something that they haven't done before and really have shown no willingness to do is a terrible idea. Planning for Stay Thirsty rating and being effective is a dangerous exercise, and one for which I'd want more than 10-1.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Stay Thirsty being kin to two slowpokes doesn't exactly make me think he's going to be a superstar going two turns.

The problem with your first sentence is that Stay Thirsty is coming off the same layoff. The biggest issue I have is that betting horses who you plan to do something that they haven't done before and really have shown no willingness to do is a terrible idea. Planning for Stay Thirsty rating and being effective is a dangerous exercise, and one for which I'd want more than 10-1.

I prefer Boys at Tosconova of the two on Saturday, and I'd probably only rate him the third most likely winner of the race. I was simply making a case for why Stay Thirsty could turn the tables on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time that the stretchout from 7F to 8.5F led to a change in result.

Not that they were worldbeaters, but aside from Biondetti's female family, Superfly and Andromeda's Hero are probably the most talented horses in the immediate families of any of the other Juvenile starters.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While his dam won the majority of her $$ going long, there's not a lot of distance in that female family.

Little Bonnet was a pretty nice horse going long, which is significant to me even if the 2nd and 3rd family's distance isn't there.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I prefer Boys at Tosconova of the two on Saturday, and I'd probably only rate him the third most likely winner of the race. I was simply making a case for why Stay Thirsty could turn the tables on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time that the stretchout from 7F to 8.5F led to a change in result.

Not that they were worldbeaters, but aside from Biondetti's female family, Superfly and Andromeda's Hero are probably the most talented horses in the immediate families of any of the other Juvenile starters.

With all due respect, evoking the name Andromeda's Hero to defend ANY horse means that horse must have less than no merits.

[jms62]

Uncle Mo 7/5... Good luck with that

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

With all due respect, evoking the name Andromeda's Hero to defend ANY horse means that horse must have less than no merits.

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

Super Saver did have the extremely accomplished Hedge Fun as a full sibling - which is probably why he won the Derby... but where were the accomplished immediate family members in Mine That Bird's pedigree?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Super Saver did have the extremely accomplished Hedge Fun as a full sibling - which is probably why he won the Derby...

Super Saver also had the fairly accomplished Girolamo, Daydreaming, Accelerator and Bluegrass Cat in his deep Phipps-family pedigree.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I know. I think you're really overstating the importance of that. A lot of Derby winners like Big Brown, Mine That Bird etc have unimpressive female families.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

I think it's irrelevent.

[randallscott35]

Strangely enough they don't know who their siblings are.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I know. I think you're really overstating the importance of that. A lot of Derby winners like Big Brown, Mine That Bird etc have unimpressive female families.

You are probably right that, given commercial breeding trends, pedigree has been less of a factor in the Derby in recent years than it was historically.

What struck me about this year's Juvenile field was how light the pedigrees were, especially compared to the two juvenile turf races this year, where the fields are rather deep from a pedigree prespective.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I think it's irrelevent.

At this point, I don't see any of these as a "Derby horse." Of those that have run so far, To Honor and Serve strikes me more as that type of horse.