11/27 (AQU): Cigar (G1); Gazelle, Remsen, Demoiselle (G2's)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I never thought I'd utter these words, but...

I hope Musket Man wins here!

Haynesfield is my favorite horse in here, but I don't see him doing squat today.

Barring jockeys screwing the race up that is.

He wont win. He never wins. He stinks, he has never been good.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

So when you calculate BSF then, a horses career form plays a big part in it? They assume that a horse isn't going to freak or just run too bad to be true?

The horses forms are what you use to establish the variant. The variant is basically the speed of the racing surface.

That is why - for instance - it's hard to trust any figure on days when you have only a single route race on the card.

Today at AQU - you had 3 races at 9fs on dirt so a variant is solid.

I don't understand your second question.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

He wont win. He never wins. He stinks, he has never been good.

LOL.

He's a cinch.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

LOL.

He's a cinch.

But I have been doing this w/ him for almost 2 years, when is the last time he won?

[eajinabi]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I can't believe the money Musket Man is taking. I have to bet Jersey Town who seems like an overlay to me.

34-1!!! Good call!

[-BT-]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I can't believe the money Musket Man is taking. I have to bet Jersey Town who seems like an overlay to me.

nicely done


-bt-

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Giant Oak and Jersey Town are our newest Grade 1 winners in the Handicap division on dirt?

This has been one of the most brutal years ever for the handicap divison.

Thank God Girolamo was coupled - I would have bet my lungs on him in there if he wasn't coupled with VH to shave his odds.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

But I have been doing this w/ him for almost 2 years, when is the last time he won?

Honestly, I rarely pay attention to your horse picks.

I never liked Musket Man either.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I can't believe the money Musket Man is taking. I have to bet Jersey Town who seems like an overlay to me.

Nice call!

[Indian Charlie]

Nice hit Hoss. I hope you weren't be facetious.

[GPK]

Great call Hussy.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Honestly, I rarely pay attention to your horse picks.

I never liked Musket Man either.

Musket Man is toast. He was rushed back to make a race at MTH with only a single workout - beaten fair and square by Etched .. and than drubbed in the slowest BC Classic race ever.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The horses forms are what you use to establish the variant. The variant is basically the speed of the racing surface.

That is why - for instance - it's hard to trust any figure on days when you have only a single route race on the card.

Today at AQU - you had 3 races at 9fs on dirt so a variant is solid.

I don't understand your second question.

Thank you for explaining this to me. I think I get the general idea, but I admit it's still a bit confusing. Then again, no one ever accused me of being a math whiz, lol

[Dahoss]

Thanks guys...needed that after yesterday.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Thanks guys...needed that after yesterday.

Did TFF give you that one?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Well for instance, you mentioned several horses' general career BSF ranges and I thought you were saying that since, say No Such Word generally runs in the 91-95 range, she probably ran that today............and if a 1 second difference between the Remsen and Gazelle equates to 9 points, then that would be approximately a 104 for THAS. If I'm mistaken, I apologize.

Yes. Let's assume To Honor And Serve ran a 104 today. That would mean ...

No Such Word won the Gazelle with a 95. She has run 91, 95, and 94 in her three most recent starts.

Awesome Marian ran a 91 today while 2nd in the Gazelle. She has run an 87 and 89 in her last two dirt races.

Seeking the Title ran an 88 today while 3rd. Her last three numbers were 75, 89, and 92.


Dixie City ran a 79 while winning the Demoiselle. Her last two numbers are 75 and 76.

Believe in AP ran a 74 while running 2nd. Her last two numbers are 76 and 75.

Tap For Luck ran a 55 while running 3rd. Her last two numbers are 76 and 61.


To Honor and Serve ran a 104 for winning the Remsen. His last two are 97 and 95.

Mucho Macho Man ran a 101 for running 2nd. His last two are 89 and 82.

Mountain Town ran a 96. He ran a 85 last time when 2nd to Uncle Mo in the Champagne.

Bandbox ran a 74 in the Remsen - his last two are 75 and 86

Buffum ran a 71. He won his debut with a 96. Obviously he's a 2nd time starter who had some early trouble and didn't run his race.

[Betsy]

Per Andy's tweet, THAS got a 102 BSF and Jersey Town a 107

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Per Andy's tweet, THAS got a 102 BSF and Jersey Town a 107

So, Mo's last performance woulda won the Cigar, but the third place finisher in the Remsen would have turned the tables on Mo in the Champagne!!!

[Sightseek]

I've never seen chart notes say "nibbled against the bit" or such a complete narrative.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...112710USA7.pdf

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I've never seen chart notes say "nibbled against the bit" or such a complete narrative.

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart...112710USA7.pdf

Wow. I wonder what the hell that was supposed to mean.