Beyer on Rainbow 6

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by jms62

That "small payoff" is now routinely at the point where it pays better then the Pick 4 which we have no problem throwing 75-100 at. Also am I the only one to think the "Parlay" in this respect is a mythical creature. Isn't the parlay plowing everything you won in the previous race into the next. Wouldn't that crush the odds by race 5 and 6. And to parlay would mean that you would have to hit six singles in a row to reach the "Parlay" payout .. Good luck with that. I'd be interested in hearing why I am way off base... Been there many times.

I'll use ateam's pick 4 to show why 4 singles in a row pays the same as his $30 investment would have when each play is parlayed.

Tampa 7
$.50 PK4 5,7,10/4,5,6,7/4,5,6,10,11/3
Starting with $10 to win on the three horses in the first leg...
1)winner paid $15.80 $79 return/4=$19.75 win on each entrant in leg 2
2)winner paid $31.20 $308.10 return/5=$61.62 win on each entrant in leg 3
3)winner paid $15.20 $468.312 return=$468.312 win on #3 in leg 4
4)winner paid $4.40 $1030.2864 returned on the parlay
$1030.2864 is the amount returned on a straight $0.50 win parlay.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

philcski, who doesn't post here anymore for some reason, brought this to my attention on Twitter. The Rainbow 6 has been routinely paying well above the parlay since the jackpot got into seven figures. So I ran the #'s for the last 3 weeks:

Jan. 24 - R6 pays $543 (parlay: $384)
Jan. 25 - R6 pays $1,147 (parlay: $785)
Jan. 26 - R6 pays $8,933 (parlay: $3,541)
Jan. 27 - R6 pays $464 (parlay: $255)
Jan. 30 - R6 pays $1,188 (parlay: $703)
Jan. 31 - R6 pays $10,276 (parlay: $2,152)
Feb. 1 - R6 pays $14,308 (parlay: $6,443)
Feb. 2 - R6 pays $1,053 (parlay: $306)
Feb. 3 - R6 pays $15,017 (parlay: $6,689)
Feb. 6 - R6 pays $111,535 (parlay: $408,887)
Feb. 7 - R6 pays $4,429 (parlay: $1,792)
Feb. 8 - R6 pays $3,521 (parlay: $706)
Feb. 9 - R6 pays $1,590 (parlay: $1,628)
Feb. 10 - R6 pays $18,246 (parlay: $15,117)

It's beaten the parlay 12 out of the last 14 cards and the only time it was a notably bad bet was that crazy day where bombs won every race. It's also been more than double the parlay on 7 of 14 cards. Something to think about at least. Logic says this would be a terrible bet except on mandatory payout day, but the recent numbers say otherwise.

It's a long story why I've stayed away.

But to continue on what you have started, since January 24th, it has paid an average of 2.34X the parlay (inclusive of the day where it was 111k on a 408k parlay) with 5 of those days exceeding 3.5X. To put that in perspective, I ran some numbers on recent pick 3's at Gulfstream and the late pick 4 and pick 6 at Aqueduct.

GP P3's: average of 1.40X, low of .498X, high of 2.555X.
AQU P4's: average of 1.91X, low of 1.14X, high of 3.59X.
AQU P6's: average of 2.31X on carryover days/1.94X on noncarryover days

Further, the payout relative to parlay is only relevant when the pool is sufficiently deep, which is why I chose GP & AQU as the control groups. The probability of a very high or low payout goes up significantly when the number of winning tickets falls into the single digits- which explains the two-ticket .27X day. Take a look at small tracks where there are frequently pool sweeps; the payoffs can be absurd (in both directions.)

So the Rainbow 6 is actually outperforming traditionally "good" wagers on a parlay comparison, offers players an affordable entry to a traditionally difficult wager, and has been generating massive handle on a daily basis. Because on the surface the "effective" takeout is high it's easy to bash, but the reality determined from some simple number crunching debases that theory.

Why is this the case? To me it's best described as sitting at a poker table where a third of the players are only there to chase the bad beat jackpot- freely handing over their money to the conscious player. The next third understand the rules of the game, but only have a basic knowledge of strategy. The final third has stepped down from the higher limit table and understands the nuances of the game.

[geojr130]

Originally Posted by geojr130

The best way to play this bet is to hit the quick pick. or wait till April 5th

??

[Calzone Lord]

Could this be the day in which it is finally hit!?

A 56/1 longshot won leg #1.

If it doesn't fall today, the carryover might make it to closing day.

[hi_im_god]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Could this be the day in which it is finally hit!?

A 56/1 longshot won leg #1.

If it doesn't fall today, the carryover might make it to closing day.

considering the 2/6 sequence was 5-1,17-1,25-1,5-1,16-1, and 9-1 with multiple winners i'm not getting worried unless there's another bomb.

[Calzone Lord]

There's only 1,369 live combos left with 3 races to go.

This has a great chance to get hit with only one winner.

[Calzone Lord]

Only 60 live combos with 2 races left to go.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Only 60 live combos with 2 races left to go.

The real question is which of those are unique.

[Kasept]

1, 2, 3, 7, 11 take it down. $3.6MM.

[jms62]

1-2-3-7-11 Pays it... I'm rooting for all others.

[ateamstupid]

1,2,3,7,11 would take it down.

[Calzone Lord]

If the 1, 2, 3, 7, or 11 win ... it gets hit for $3.6 million.

All of those five horses are currently single digit odds.

Amazingly, two winning combos are alive to #12. The rest are all uncovered and would be 5 of 6's.

The chances of this getting hit with a single ticket are certainly a lot better than not right now.

[jms62]

They have run these 8.5 T Mclm 35 11 times during the meet and the favorite has won 5 of them. Somebody may be a really big Edgar Prado fan in 15 minutes.

[hi_im_god]

i'm rooting for a dead heat.

[declansharbor]

Perfect time for Timothy Hills to improve his win % w/ maiden claimers!

[cmorioles]

Late scratch? Do they get the fave? If so, does that kill the lone winner on the fave? Crazy stuff...

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Late scratch? Do they get the fave? If so, does that kill the lone winner on the fave? Crazy stuff...

Don't think so, since as Doug said, no one was 5-for-5 closing into the 4.

[Scav]

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/sites/...Rule%20_3_.pdf

[ateamstupid]

Well, on the bright side, there's still plenty of time to build up another seven-figure jackpot for closing day.

[hi_im_god]

i hope they can release the structure of the entire ticket. it would be interesting to see how much was spent and if it was built on handicapping, lucky numbers, or some combination of the two.