The Official Your Top 5 Thread

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Current consensus 5-4-3-2-1 top to bottom. Vyjack asking for your support

Orb-42
Normandy Invasion-24
Goldenencents-23
Govenor Charlie-20
Revolutionary-16
Itsmyluckyday-15
Java's War-12
Verrazano-10
Lines of Battle-9
Overanalyze-7
Oxbow-7
Will Take Charge-7
Falling Sky-4
Palice Malice-4
Super Ninety Nine-3
Black Onyx-2
Frac Daddy-2
Tiz a Minister-2
MyLute-1

It was a draw between Oxbow and Will Take Charge for me and a wet track would change my choice between the two and I'll really be reading what is said about them in the next few weeks leading up to the Derby. Few of these horses really seem like they are "bred for the distance." I would love to hear what someone like Andy thinks about the repeated bad trips for Oxbow. Normandy is a more "solid" selection of the pair, but the overflowing love has turned me off.

Itsmyluckyday is a leave in here because his best races are some of the best of the group and he'll likely be overlooked.

Ok Dougie. Show me yours.

[Gate Dancer]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I respectfully disagree.

Any opinion that can't be defended when questioned or ridiculed is a very weak one.

And indeed, if one offers an opinion that is so weak that you're unwilling to explain the basis or provide it a thorough defense ... why even bother sharing? It's clutter.

I'm one of those that included Lines Of Battle and don't mind sharing a few reasons. He's just curious to me......more because of what we don't know than what we do know. He's certainly not a 'win' candidate in my book but a top 5 finish would not surprise me. Nice breeding, appears to have some stamina, looked ok in the UAE Derby and a top flight jockey. I realize all the negatives associated with coming over here from Dubai but that the fact is that 10 of the 20 horses in the Ky Derby will be staggering down the stretch. The endless comments of "I guess he didn't want the distance" or "I guess he didn't like the track" will be espoused after the race. I do believe this horse will be finishing and if he does take to the dirt could be a possibility. Doubtful that he'll be on any of my multi-race wagers but is he a superfecta candidate?...........Sure, why not? Just enough mystery around this guy to be interesting.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Tiz a Minister-2

I keep looking for who else has him and am not seeing it (and yes, I know it's terribly important but just sayin...)

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I keep looking for who else has him and am not seeing it (and yes, I know it's terribly important but just sayin...)

I will let you know exactly who else has him only if you give your reasons for choosing him. They don't have to be good reasons.
For instance I chose Govenor Charlie only because he has no relationship with any other runner in the field. The same could be said for the Dubai runner although he has had past relationships with more notable runners who could be running in the derby.
Hint: Don't look too far from your post.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I will let you know exactly who else has him only if you give your reasons for choosing him. They don't have to be good reasons.
For instance I chose Govenor Charlie only because he has no relationship with any other runner in the field. The same could be said for the Dubai runner although he has had past relationships with more notable runners who could be running in the derby.
Hint: Don't look too far from your post.

He's improving at the right time.

I liked the move he made during the San Felipe when he was like 18 lengths back... to me it says he has right style to be a Derby winner.

I liked him when he won the race at at HP back in November.

Prior to that, at Del Mar, Iggy had the mount and he was 2nd which shows that he doesn't need a good jockey (I do like Talamo a LOT).

I like Talamo a LOT (I just said that but it's officially a reason).

He looked good beating Omega Star and Surfcup back in January.

I like that his trainer is not a Pletcher or Baffert type.

He'll be at good odds.

He is the biggest horse his owners have ever had... hard not to root for that kinda thing.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

He's improving at the right time.

I liked the move he made during the San Felipe when he was like 18 lengths back... to me it says he has right style to be a Derby winner.

I liked him when he won the race at at HP back in November.

Prior to that, at Del Mar, Iggy had the mount and he was 2nd which shows that he doesn't need a good jockey (I do like Talamo a LOT).

I like Talamo a LOT (I just said that but it's officially a reason).

He looked good beating Omega Star and Surfcup back in January.

I like that his trainer is not a Pletcher or Baffert type.

He'll be at good odds.

He is the biggest horse his owners have ever had... hard not to root for that kinda thing.

AWESOME Now I'd like to hear from the soup 99 guy.

Anyway the points are assigned 5 for top pick,4 for 2nd,etc.
You chose him 4th giving him 2 points so you are the only one who chose him

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

AWESOME Now I'd like to hear from the soup 99 guy.

Anyway the points are assigned 5 for top pick,4 for 2nd,etc.
You chose him 4th giving him 2 points so you are the only one who chose him

Thank you, kind Sir, for the very nice points.

It's a good thing Dewey won't make the field cause my answer woulda been "cause he's so cute".

[OldDog]

My Top 5 as of this AM:

Verrazano
Orb
Java's War
Revolutionary
Normandy Invasion

[zippyneedsawin]

As of now, these are the top five I would use to key on top of a tri, I would certainly use others underneath, but not in the win slot:

Orb
Verrazano
Goldencents
Vyjack
Itsmyluckyday

Oxbow is the only other I'm considering on top.

I think Normandy invasion and Revolutionary are keys underneath (the best bets to hit the board but not win) - although I also like in Vyjack in all three slots as well.

[Clip-Clop]

Oxbow
Java's War
Revolutionary
Tiz a Minister
Orb

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Oxbow
Java's War
Revolutionary
Tiz a Minister
Orb

Normandy's Invasion
Orb
Governor Charlie
Goldencents
Verrazano

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Ok Dougie. Show me yours.

I haven't had time to take a more complete look at the projected field until this morning.

1.) Goldencents
2.) Normandy Invasion
3.) Revolutionary
4.) Verrazano
5.) Orb

A LOT of work still pending to be done after the race is drawn.

I'm especially interested in noting how horses who raced on the main track Santa Anita Derby day comeback and perform. I think the figure is solid that day, but I want to be sure the track wasn't speed biased. So, study will be done on how speeds and one-dimensional closers who raced that day performed next out.

Obviously, a more thorough review of all of the preps is needed for me. I don't see anything clear-cut ... and nothing ever is with very lightly raced 3-year-olds stretching out.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I haven't had time to take a more complete look at the projected field until this morning.

1.) Goldencents
2.) Normandy Invasion
3.) Revolutionary
4.) Verrazano
5.) Orb

A LOT of work still pending to be done after the race is drawn.

I'm especially interested in noting how horses who raced on the main track Santa Anita Derby day comeback and perform. I think the figure is solid that day, but I want to be sure the track wasn't speed biased. So, study will be done on how speeds and one-dimensional closers who raced that day performed next out.

Obviously, a more thorough review of all of the preps is needed for me. I don't see anything clear-cut ... and nothing ever is with very lightly raced 3-year-olds stretching out.

Thoughts on Mylute and Overanalyze?

[FATPIANO]

• Goldencents
• itsmyluckyday
• Mylute
• Java's War
• Orb

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Thoughts on Mylute and Overanalyze?

None of the other closers in this race can move with Mylute, he has a Street Sense like far turn move, to say he hasn't been able to sustain it has been an understatement.

I bet him in the Louisiana Derby last time because I loved the blinkers coming off and he had strong efforts two and three back. He got a patient ride, looked like a certain winner, and even without the blinkers, he hung terribly again in deep stretch and it cost him the win.

If this was Europe and they had in-race exchange wagering, I'd look to take a position betting against him at the top of the stretch because he will look serious turning for home. He could run a Wheelaway type race.

Overanalyze is one of the few Pletchers I expect to improve a lot as the year goes on.

All throughout history, when horses run big races going 9 furlongs as 2-year-olds and are subsequently laid up... they always struggle to come back to form initially.

In the old days, horses like Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion would have been brought back in 6 furlong races and trained harder. Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion are Travers horses IMO. I expect steady improvement from both through the summer.

[Rileyoriley]

Revolutionary
Oxbow
Orb
Frac Daddy
Mylute

[Scav]

Top 5
1) Orb
2) Overanalyze
3) Goldencents
4) Verrazano
5) Revoltionary

Bottom 5
1) Vyjack
2) Frac Daddy
3) Java's War
4) Falling Sky
5) Charming Kitten
6) Palace Malice
7) Black Onx

[Port Conway Lane]

Orb-70
Goldenencents-42
Normandy Invasion-38
Revolutionary-30
Verrazano-29
Java's War-26
Itsmyluckyday-24
Govenor Charlie-23
Oxbow-16
Overanalyze-13
Lines of Battle-9
Palice Malice-9
Will Take Charge-7
MyLute-5
Falling Sky-4
Frac Daddy-4
Tiz a Minister-4
Super Ninety Nine-3
Black Onyx-2
Vyjack-2

[lord007]

1.Black Onyx
2.Orb
3.Revolutionary
4.Mylute
5.Itsmyluckyday

[hondo]

1.Orb
2,Normandy invasion
3. Itsmyluckyday
4. Revolutionary
5 Verazano