Premium Tap to Classic?

[FATPIANO]

Premium Tap has a shot based on how he's working. Remember Volponi.........anything can happen

[alysheba4]

i remember the derby play..........after it hit huge

Slot, in the last decade for a while, "value handicapping" was the rage for a while. Guys weer told to make their own morning line, and only bet horses who were overlaid according to that line.
The problem is that what if you think a horse should be 10-1 and hes 20-1 and you don't think the horse stands a chance in the world? Do you bet him?
**** that!!!
I think that method is best used to PASS races. If you think you should be getting 8-1 on a horse who is 4-1, and you really think hes horse to play, just pass the race. That I am a firm believer in.
By the same token if you originally think a horse like scat Daddy is the best horse in a race, and you expect him to be 3-5, and originally think you may wanna spread the race looking to beat him, and you are stunned to see him at 5-2 on the board when they are loading the gate, you make him the key.

I'm sorry but betting 40-1 shots that you think should be 20-1 who you still feel have no chance, is not the way I prefer to go.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

not on top...save that bet..bern /invs sk /..whoever..

You might as well take the money you're gonna wager on Premium Tap and give it to a bum on taylor boulevard and have him kick you in the nuts.

[alysheba4]

" here comes the SUN KING.... everybodys laughing, everybodys happy "

john lennon 1969........gander style

Originally Posted by alysheba4

i remember the derby play..........after it hit huge

Sheba that was a great moment for me that lost some of its luster because i was watching the race on the big screen in Lansdons suite and the roar was so loud down the stretch that I couldn't hear the call of the announcer. I knew Barbaro was winning because of the silks and the way that prado looks in the saddle(Showing Up had the same silks on) and I had been watching Steppenwolfer from the time they opened up the gate to the time they hit the wire with only brief glimpses at who was leading that stopped when I knew that barbaro couldnt lose. After they hit the line I had no earthly idea whatsoever who had run 2nd and there were 3-4 horses I didn't use in the place and show holes with Stepenwolfer. I was running around screaming "WHO WAS 2nd?!!!!!!!!" for a good 30 seconds before someone said Bluegrass Cat. It registered in my mind that i had tossed him in for 2nd and 3rd, I looked at the tote board out on the deck ofhis suite(pushing aside people and saying excuse me excuse me) and then screamed "WE HAVE GOT IT!!!!" to everyone in the suite, as many of Lanson's guests had asked me how to play the race and I had given all of them the trifecta on two seperate tickets that cost 45 dollars apiece(90 dollars total) and some like me and a few others played 2 dollar tickets at the cost of 90 apiece(180 bucks). Lansdon even had BOTH superfectas with the dead heat.
They actually ran out of money at the tellers booth in the suites area and had to send down for more, thanks to me!!!
Races like that and days like that are the reason we all play the game, because they don't come often. Thats the biggest trifecta I ever hit, and I don't know that i will ever have one again that large. I highly doubt it.

[alysheba4]

thats i awesome hit man......... the rush of a big hit is a beautiful thing

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think he was talkin about geee a koooomoo..why would these people ask you......lol..lmfao..

[Cajungator26]

I sure as shiat didn't have Giacomo...

LOL

Originally Posted by alysheba4

thats i awesome hit man......... the rush of a big hit is a beautiful thing

Woulda been better if I hadn't had cold chills run up my spine after the race was over thinking that if one of the few horses I had totally tossed was 2nd or 3rd that I blew the trifecta. Those were anxious moments. I had tossed Sinister Minister, keyed entry, and seaside retreat. I saw that the 2nd horse had closed so I knew it wasn't Keyed or Sinister because theyhad been up near the lead and had quit.
I swear to you for 30 nxious seconds I swore that if Seaside Retreat was the horse who had gotten 2nd place that I was gonna quit the game and never play again. Phew.

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

i think he was talkin about geee a koooomoo..why would these people ask you......lol..lmfao..

Huh? What about Giacomo? I sure as hell didn't have him in the Derby!!!!!

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by oracle80

The fastest of those closers on the sheets is consistently Sun King.
I'm not trying to overthink the race just because its worth 4 million bucks.

I'm in total agreement that Sun King is the best choice to key for the tri.. My only concern is paying too much into the Trifecta bet v. the payout. If Bernardini and/or Invasor are in the top two slots, I don't think the price will be too high... now if Bernie or Invasor.. or both were to miss the board, that would make things real juicy! And by the way, it's a $5 million dollar race now!!

[slotdirt]

Having Giacomo and Closing Argument in the Derby will always be my best score ever. I just don't think I can top that. In fact, it seems like the more I learn, the less I win.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Having Giacomo and Closing Argument in the Derby will always be my best score ever. I just don't think I can top that. In fact, it seems like the more I learn, the less I win.

I had Closing Argument and AA, but I tossed Giacomo. DOH!

[Crown@club]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

Premium Tap has a shot based on how he's working. Remember Volponi.........anything can happen

Volponi had a couple of things going for him. 1) Practically the only horse in the race proven to go the distance. 2) The race and how it was set up for him at the get go. Ask Randallscott that one.

Premium Tap doesn't look like he has a good scenerio at all unless there is defections before the race in run. A situation that I highly doubt will happen.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Its not scary at all Dunbar, and every smart player knows that the only way to have a chance to win is to create value and bet against what you perceive to be bad favorites.

Just to be clear, when I wrote "how scary can that be?", I was refering to BTWind's comment that people like to pick longshots on the Internet that they'd never bet at the window. I was saying that if you structure your bets reasonably, your bets on longshots should be small enough to not be particularly scary.

Originally Posted by oracle80

The "trap" here is that being able to handicap a race effectively is the first step in this. Simply betting random longshots isn't the way to go. Having a good knowledge of horses ability and running styles is the first step in isolating possible live long shots to either win or complete gimmicks.

No argument here.

Originally Posted by oracle80

If you knew me well enough, you'd know that I make the same statement about certain favorites having no shot as often as I do longshots. In last years BC sprint I said the same thing about Lost in The Fog. I said the wicked pace I predicted would hurt any chance he had.
I think that handicapping is the primary key in finding a live longshot, and the opinion someone has one what kind of chance any horse has, is the key in determining which longshots are live.

Not disputing any of that either, except the approach that a horse has "no shot". It's maybe a matter of semantics. I like to think in terms of every horse having a shot. The key is finding those whose odds are attractive, regardless of whether it is a fav or a longshot.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Slot, in the last decade for a while, "value handicapping" was the rage for a while. Guys weer told to make their own morning line, and only bet horses who were overlaid according to that line.
The problem is that what if you think a horse should be 10-1 and hes 20-1 and you don't think the horse stands a chance in the world? Do you bet him?
**** that!!!

This makes no sense to me. How can you "think the horse should be 10-1", but also "don't think the horse stands a chance in the world"? The whole point of making your own line is to come up with your own estimate of each horse's chance of winning. Once you make a line with a horse at 10-1, you are saying that that horse has a 1/11 chance of winning the race. It makes no sense to then turn around and say the horse has no chance.

I'm not trying to be insulting here, but I think you are confused about what making your own line means. You say something equally confusing with this:

Originally Posted by oracle80

I'm sorry but betting 40-1 shots that you think should be 20-1 who you still feel have no chance, is not the way I prefer to go.

If I think a horse "should be 20-1", it means I think he has a 1/21 chance of winning. That's not "no chance". I don't get your thinking here. You are not looking at making your own line the same way I do.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I had Closing Argument and AA, but I tossed Giacomo. DOH!

I had Closing Argument, too, Cajun, both in futures and on raceday. For about a millisecond, I thought I was having a huge payoff.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The problem with a horse like Premium Tap in match-ups ( and I'm sure I don't have to explain this to you ) is that he has a running style for this race that makes even a reasonable finish difficult. He figures to have to fight it out at least reasonably early with some of the top guns and still have enough left to deal with the decent closers.

After looking again at his last 3 races, I don't see that Premium Tap's running style is particularly ill-suited to this race. He is clearly a horse that does not need the lead. In the Ky Cup Classic, in particular, he showed he could sit comfortably in 4th until called upon to move up. Yes, he will have plenty of company looking for a good stalking position, but it's also true that the deep closers are going to have to be very lucky to get through that mass of horses near the front without having to go 6-wide.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Truly, the above argument is also why I say he has " no " chance in the race. First of all, while I do think he's improved, and publically said before the Woodward he was the one longshot I would recommend in the race, he does not fit the race dynamics along with being too slow.

In the Woodward he beat 2-3 horses who will race in the Classic. He ran a nearly eye-to-eye race with Second of June for the length of the Woodward. It does concern me that the last furlong of the Woodward was slow. But as far as "fit[ting] the race dynamics", I don't see him hindered any more than the rest of the group that will be forwardly placed, which includes all the serious contenders. Premium Tap, as opposed to some, has had the opportunity to exhibit considerable grit in his last 2 races.

In the Ky Cup Classic, the check/clip cost Premium Tap at least 4 lengths, IMO. Without the incident he is an easy winner.

None of this is to say he has much chance to win the race. But aside from the theoretical debate, we are arguing over the difference between, say, 1.5% and 4%. It's that distinction that determines whether getting 40-1 is a great bet or a lousy bet.

BTWind, if you haven't taken a recent look at the Ky Cup Classic, please do.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

OK...a number approaching zero which I personally believe is less than 2.5% ( though with takeout I was really saying his actual representative chances would be under 2%...wouldn't want to drop too far down in your esteem ).

Hey, BTWind, I had to dig up this old post when I noticed Pinnacle offering -4900 that Premium Tap would not win the BC.

"Sat 11/4 Will Premium Tap win he BC Classic?
1021 Yes +3300
1022 No -4900 "

Therefore, anyone totally convinced that Premium Tap has less than a 2% chance to win the BC Classic can make free money on this bet. Don't everyone rush to Pinnacle at once!
;>)

Here's the complete list of Yes/No prices for the Classic:

Sat 11/4 Will Bernardini win the BC Classic? (must start)
02:25 PM 1001 Yes +105
1002 No -121

Sat 11/4 Will Brother Derek win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1003 Yes +3600
1004 No -5200

Sat 11/4 Will David Junior win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1005 Yes +1386
1006 No -1886

Sat 11/4 Will George Washington win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1009 Yes +793
1010 No -1093

Sat 11/4 Will Giacomo win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1011 Yes +4000
1012 No -5600

Sat 11/4 Will Invasor win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1013 Yes +600
1014 No -680

Sat 11/4 Will Lava Man win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1015 Yes +570
1016 No -650

Sat 11/4 Will Lawyer Ron win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1017 Yes +3200
1018 No -4800

Sat 11/4 Will Perfect Drift win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1019 Yes +5500
1020 No -8000

Sat 11/4 Will Premium Tap win he BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1021 Yes +3300
1022 No -4900

Sat 11/4 Will Suave win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1023 Yes +5000
1024 No -7500

Sat 11/4 Will Sun King win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1025 Yes +2100
1026 No -2800

Sat 11/4 Will Flower Alley win the BC Classic?
02:25 PM 1027 Yes +5000
1028 No -7500

--Dunbar