2020 Kentucky Derby contender watch - Page 3

moses · #41 02-07-2020, 12:35 PM

I know it’s early but people are really hammering the Baffert horses.

Nadal down to 6/1
Thousand Words down to 9/1
Authentic down to 11/1

I’m sure that will change. Only $13,000 in the pool right now and who wants to bet before the Sam Davis? But I found that interesting.

Dahoss · #42 02-08-2020, 06:36 PM

He got a great set up but I was wrong about Sole Volante. He’s a very good turf horse and pretty good on dirt too

moses · #43 02-09-2020, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

He got a great set up but I was wrong about Sole Volante. He’s a very good turf horse and pretty good on dirt too

I wonder how good Chance It and As Seen on Tv are then. I threw some money on Chance It in Pool 2 based on the Sam Davis.

moses · #44 02-09-2020, 09:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

I wonder how good Chance It and As Seen on Tv are then. I threw some money on Chance It in Pool 2 based on the Sam Davis.

Speaking of Chance It - was his Beyer figure for the Mucho Macho Man changed? Everyone reported it as a 94 after the race but DRF has it listed as a 99 on their website.

Alabama Stakes · #45 02-09-2020, 11:43 PM

Nadal is built like a brick shithouse. He has muscles in places that most hosses don’t have places. Your derby winner.

moses · #46 02-10-2020, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Nadal is built like a brick shithouse. He has muscles in places that most hosses don’t have places. Your derby winner.

He looks good...but not ready to crown him the winner yet.

blackthroatedwind · #47 02-10-2020, 09:22 AM

Nadal is obviously very talented, but to think he's a Derby winner off the San Vicente performance is ludicrous. The horse he dueled with finished second, so it's not as though the pace fell apart.

Nice horse, great trainer, too much hype.

Dahoss · #48 02-10-2020, 09:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nadal is obviously very talented, but to think he's a Derby winner off the San Vicente performance is ludicrous. The horse he dueled with finished second, so it's not as though the pace fell apart.

Nice horse, great trainer, too much hype.

You weren’t sold on the idea he has muscles in places other horses don’t have places?

I know I was.

moses · #49 02-10-2020, 10:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You weren’t sold on the idea he has muscles in places other horses don’t have places?

I know I was.

I heard that same thing about Justify. It’ll be nice to have another triple crown winner this year. I just hope they let Nadal finish his 3YO campaign and run at the Breeders Cup.

Dahoss · #50 02-10-2020, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

I heard that same thing about Justify. It’ll be nice to have another triple crown winner this year. I just hope they let Nadal finish his 3YO campaign and run at the Breeders Cup.

I think instead of running this year they should just announce him as the Triple Crown, Haskell, Travers and Classic winner and move on to next year.

moses · #51 02-12-2020, 11:48 AM

Anyone catch the 7th race at Gulfstream on Saturday?

Kiaran McLaughlin’s horse Spa City looks really good. Registered a 91 Beyer for the 9 furlong maiden breaker and looks like an absolutely massive horse with decent enough early speed and the ability to run all day. He could be a major player on the Derby Trail.

The runner up Unrighteous looked solid as well. It looked like there may have been some contact in the stretch and he may have made a move a little too early...so worth keeping an eye on, though I doubt he’ll be much of a price next time he runs. (Sidenote: Disappointed in Pletcher’s other horse in the race Mandate who looked to be working well last Fall but has not shown up on race day.)

moses · #52 02-12-2020, 11:59 AM

Gouverneur Morris also makes his 3YO debut this week at Tampa. Interestingly enough, he’ll face off against Untitled who will come back off 13 days rest after a disappointing race in the Swale. And we’ll see Letmeno make his 3YO debut, last seen finishing 4th in the Iroquois.

Sounion also runs (crushed by Ny Traffic back in January) and Pletcher runs a 6F maiden breaker Dudley Square who looks bred to appreciate added distance.

Very interested to see how this race unfolds.

Alabama Stakes · #53 03-14-2020, 09:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Nadal is built like a brick shithouse. He has muscles in places that most hosses don’t have places. Your derby winner.

Nice display of speed and stamina today.

moses · #54 03-15-2020, 03:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Nice display of speed and stamina today.

Really doubtful about this race. Excession is not that good...and I know he got a pace to run into...but I suspect this race may not prove to be very good. I guess we’ll see. I’m skeptical and like Authentic the best of Baffert’s horses...but if Nadal is legit, it looks like he is pretty stacked this year, moreso than usual.

Dahoss · #55 03-15-2020, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Really doubtful about this race. Excession is not that good...and I know he got a pace to run into...but I suspect this race may not prove to be very good. I guess we’ll see. I’m skeptical and like Authentic the best of Baffert’s horses...but if Nadal is legit, it looks like he is pretty stacked this year, moreso than usual.

What are you doubtful about?

knickslions2 · #56 03-15-2020, 04:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

Really doubtful about this race. Excession is not that good...and I know he got a pace to run into...but I suspect this race may not prove to be very good. I guess we’ll see. I’m skeptical and like Authentic the best of Baffert’s horses...but if Nadal is legit, it looks like he is pretty stacked this year, moreso than usual.

That was a great effort in my opinion.

moses · #57 03-15-2020, 05:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What are you doubtful about?

The Beyer and Timeform figures coming back so favorable for Nadal. Did Excession run the race of his life (with a favorable pace set up obviously) or was the level of the rest of the competition maybe not that good?

Nadal looks good but I’m doubtful he is as good as that race makes him look. I think Silver Prospector and Three Technique are probably not as good as anyone thought and Basin is hard to judge because he was coming off such a long layoff.

Just my opinion but I think Authentic will prove to be better than Nadal. Obviously, I could be wrong.

knickslions2 · #58 03-15-2020, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

The Beyer and Timeform figures coming back so favorable for Nadal. Did Excession run the race of his life (with a favorable pace set up obviously) or was the level of the rest of the competition maybe not that good?

Nadal looks good but I’m doubtful he is as good as that race makes him look. I think Silver Prospector and Three Technique are probably not as good as anyone thought and Basin is hard to judge because he was coming off such a long layoff.

Just my opinion but I think Authentic will prove to be better than Nadal. Obviously, I could be wrong.

I wouldn’t read into a long shot lumbering up for second with that pace. Happens all the time. That was a solid prep for the winner. Is he the derby fav who knows. Derby most likely is going to get postponed so tough to get too excited now.

moses · #59 03-15-2020, 06:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I wouldn’t read into a long shot lumbering up for second with that pace. Happens all the time. That was a solid prep for the winner. Is he the derby fav who knows. Derby most likely is going to get postponed so tough to get too excited now.

Maybe I should’t. I think Nadal is good, by the way, just not as good as some others.

Dahoss · #60 03-15-2020, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by moses

The Beyer and Timeform figures coming back so favorable for Nadal. Did Excession run the race of his life (with a favorable pace set up obviously) or was the level of the rest of the competition maybe not that good?

Nadal looks good but I’m doubtful he is as good as that race makes him look. I think Silver Prospector and Three Technique are probably not as good as anyone thought and Basin is hard to judge because he was coming off such a long layoff.

Just my opinion but I think Authentic will prove to be better than Nadal. Obviously, I could be wrong.

It’s definitely fair to question the field, but I think there are a few things to look at. One the wet track. Some handled it, some did not.

The pace was crazy fast, look where the other speed horses finished.

I’m with you that the runner up isn’t very good but he got the right set up and a track he obviously took to. Those things allow horses to run the race of their life.

I’m not sure how good Nadal is but that was a very strong race IMO