Delta Jackpot takes on importance this year

And I wanna say that its laughable for people to say certain guys overrun horses as two year olds, then say that the trainer was a bum for not running them enough to make the Derby on earnings.
They are all different, and the number one thing a trainer has to do is to do right by the horse.
They all can't be two year olds, and MANY horses would be better suited to starting late i their two year old years, or as three year olds.
The rules are the rules, and its about the fairest system we have. But I really can't fault a guy who waits for knees to close or for a horse to mature enough to take a pounding and waits to start him later on.
If more trainers did this, we'd have much better summer and fall three year olds, because so many get pounded on early and don't even make it to spring.

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rock Hard Ten and although the way that Barbaro ran it wouldn't have mattered, but SunRiver certainly could have hit the board.

Thanx Yes, SR would have been considered to have had a shot. RHT even more so.

Man, my memory is for total sh**.

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Thanx Yes, SR would have been considered to have had a shot. RHT even more so.

Man, my memory is for total sh**.

Nah, thats only two horses Stud.
I just think that the way they are doing it now is the only way to do it and its not gonna be perfect. Its fair because everyone knows the rules.
If you have one of those committees favortism always comes into play, and it woud be even worse.
I just think that some folks forget constantly that they are flesh and blood.
We lose good horses because people pound on them before they should be pounded on.
I respect people who see that a horse has a problem or two developmentally, or isn't quite ready to go yet. If you exerecise prudence and know what your horse is and debut him late, you can't get on the guy and tell him hes a bum for not running his horse earlier. They ain't machines.

[blackthroatedwind]

SunRiver? What good race did he ever run? Surely you jest. You can't suggest his impressive photo decision over Lewis Michael somehow translates into a horse that would have been remotely competitive in any full field of reasonably quality.

If SunRiver had the same pps but wasn't related to Afraudo, or trained by Todd Pletcher, he would have been three times the odds he was every time he ran and nobody would have ever even whispered that he was particularly talented.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

SunRiver? What good race did he ever run? Surely you jest. You can't suggest his impressive photo decision over Lewis Michael somehow translates into a horse that would have been remotely competitive in any full field of reasonably quality.

If SunRiver had the same pps but wasn't related to Afraudo, or trained by Todd Pletcher, he would have been three times the odds he was every time he ran and nobody would have ever even whispered that he was particularly talented.

Well his Narrow win over lewis Michael was accomplished while wide and behind a moderate pace and he got a very good number in doing so. His belmont wasn't bad either.
I'm saying he would have beaten more than his share of horses in the Derby.
And "Afraudo" may not have been Personal Ensign, but she won more than her share of very nice races including a very nice BC race.
But yes, he got more hype than he deserved due to the relation.

I will say this as well, the slots for the Derby are filling up very fast.
I realize that not all will stay sound, but unlike many other years, the horses who have the earnings seem to have some distance breeding and quality about them, and the others who wanna get in are gonna have a tough time unless they win big pursed preps.
Street Sense, Nobiz Like Showbiz, Tiz Wonderful, Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Scat Daddy, Birdbirdistheword all have solid earnings already. I'm not sure you can poput bafferts runnerup from last night in ther because he has shown that he will pass with a horse he doesnt feel belongs.
But those 8 have the earnings and then you can toss in the Dubai race winner.
Granted some may fall by the wayside, but you still have the Hollywood Futurity which will be won by someone other than those 8 I listed, as none are going to run there, and the winner of that race will be in.
I think trainers who honestly wanna get to the Derby are gonna have a hard road compiling earnings and will have to WIN a big prep, not just hit the board this coming spring.

[blackthroatedwind]

I imagine something VERY close to the right 20 horses will make it to the gate on Derby Day. I know you're just having fun with the topic but it's WAY too early to be speculating about a field who's makeup will be substantially different in five months from how it may appear now.

[Left Bank]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I really hope this leads to a reform of the Derby selection system. It is ridiculous that 2nd in this race is worth more than 2nd in the Wood Memorial.

This is a good reason for reform.Too many cheap horses will be making it in,while legitimate contenders will be taking a back seat to them.They should dump the earnings,and go with graded stakes WINS,not earnings.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I imagine something VERY close to the right 20 horses will make it to the gate on Derby Day. I know you're just having fun with the topic but it's WAY too early to be speculating about a field who's makeup will be substantially different in five months from how it may appear now.

I think the horses with earnings have a tremendous edge this year moreso than any other.
These guys will not have to pound on their horses in the preps, can truly use them as preps.

[blackthroatedwind]

Ya know, there used to be a time when horses were strong enough, and racing was honest enough, for horses to actually try in all their races and run more than four times a year.

Sadly those days are, apparently, long gone.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by SentToStud

Thanx Yes, SR would have been considered to have had a shot. RHT even more so.

Man, my memory is for total sh**.

Not that the Kentucky Derby would have suffered from the exclusion of Jazil but he was the 20th in earnings last year as Wood Memorial runner up in a year where they didn't run the Delta Jackpot, didn't run the Louisiana Derby, no foreign horses entered, and no fillies entered. In other years he could have easily been bumped. The system is broke and is just going to get worse with the Delta Jackpot being graded this year. Can someone explain to me how this race is G3 but the Southwest Stakes isn't?

[SniperSB23]

Let's put it this way. In the current system you could win the Southwest Stakes and finish second in the Wood Memorial and you would not get in the Derby field while Pirates Deputy could never run top five between now and Derby Day and would make the field.

Originally Posted by oracle80

Rock Hard Ten and although the way that Barbaro ran it wouldn't have mattered, but SunRiver certainly could have hit the board.

I believe you and I loved Sun River in the Peter Pan, but I really dont think he would of had a chance on Derby day. He did have a chance to hit the board--but I don't think he would have finished in the top 6.

Certainly some horses already have an earnings advantage right now, but all that means is that the trainers who have Derby contenders will have to get their horses some money. And than means racing them more. There are so many races in the future that it is going to make the Derby entries very interesting. It used to be that $100k would get u a spot. Soon it will be like $250-$300 as a minimum. You also could assume that Street Sense, Quay, Scat Daddy will continue to beat up on the east coast horses. Great Hunter, Principle Secret and Horse Greeley will beat up on the west coast horses. Who know who will emerge in the mid-west. But we will get the right 20 in the Derby this year like we have for every year.

[Linny]

Re: Sunriver- Had Todd stood up to the owners of Keyed Entry (who wants no part of 10f) then Sunriver would have been in.

The fact is that yes the rules are arbitrary but they are the same for everyone. Most of the good horsemen have a pretty fair idea when looking at their 2yos, what kind of horse they have. Sure, some jump up and surprise you with a huge leap forward, but if that's the case and in January that longshot maiden breaker has suddenly become a racehorse and you sre smelling roses, you better get going. To get in the gate at Churchill you need to leapfrog alot of horses, or hope some other guys horses fall away.

Trainers who wait or pick spots or just "give him extra time" know that they are risking a berth. Some years, one or two stars dominate and make a LOT of $$$ meaning that alot of horses with relatively small bankrolls are fighting for remaining spots. Other years it seems like all the preps are won by different horses, meaning a big placing (like Jazil's Wood) may not even get you in.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Linny

Re: Sunriver- Had Todd stood up to the owners of Keyed Entry (who wants no part of 10f) then Sunriver would have been in.

The fact is that yes the rules are arbitrary but they are the same for everyone. Most of the good horsemen have a pretty fair idea when looking at their 2yos, what kind of horse they have. Sure, some jump up and surprise you with a huge leap forward, but if that's the case and in January that longshot maiden breaker has suddenly become a racehorse and you sre smelling roses, you better get going. To get in the gate at Churchill you need to leapfrog alot of horses, or hope some other guys horses fall away.

Trainers who wait or pick spots or just "give him extra time" know that they are risking a berth. Some years, one or two stars dominate and make a LOT of $$$ meaning that alot of horses with relatively small bankrolls are fighting for remaining spots. Other years it seems like all the preps are won by different horses, meaning a big placing (like Jazil's Wood) may not even get you in.

Stop talking sense!!! John Ward will take offense.