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Originally Posted by Scav
I agree, but I am still happy to be alive to four digits on two horses
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I wasn't talking about your $15 pic 3 wheel.I was talking about the 5x1x3 p3 wheel I played.For every $15 played on it ,it would have only yielded about $65(if I singled that chalk in the 7th.)That doesn't sound that bad,but think again,cuz the 1st leg was a 6-1.You need to get atleast a $100 payout for every $15 invested(if you got a 6-1 to start it.)Why? because about 70% of the time one of those top 2 favs are gunna win the 1st leg.How much would I get then for that p3 with the 5,7 or 9 winning the last,and that chalk winning the 7th? Not much.Easy to say the chalk in the 7th was a shoe in,but he was suppose to win last time at 6/5,and didn't.So,if you go 5 deep(including a 4/5 shot) in the 1st leg of a pick 3,you damn sure better be ready to put up with getting that 4/5 shot(like it or not.)The last thing you can afford to do is have a 4/5,a 4/5,and a 5/2 as the resulting pick 3 if you go 5deep xsingle x3 deep.Those usually barely pay the win parlay of about $14/1(which means you just get your money back.)It is pointless.So,if I thought that the 4/5 in the 7th couldn't be left out,then how can I make sure I make money by using while going 5 deep(taking a chance that the 4/5 will win )in the 6th? Well,I had one way to make sure that I would make money(even if the 4/5 shots came in back to back.)I could have singled the winner of the 5th.That means a pick4 using Opimian/VERMEIL, Coyote Fast, Hot Off The Bench , Under House Arrest, Li Bien/TAIKUN,Whatasoldier,and Bear in the Woods/Miss N D,Racy Ack,and Jagged Heart FOR $45...AND THAT PAID $307/1(DECENT.)FACT IS I DIDN'T TRUST OPIMIAN ENOUGH TO DO THAT.I trusted Bear In The Woods more.I can tell you that something was wrong with him from the beginning tonite.He is not a deep closer.He is a middle closer.I was very surprised to see him that far back.I was not surprised to see the 4/5 that far back.This is Solis' style.If Bear was 100% ,he would of been midpack,and made the 1st move.The race pace favored a deep closer though,and so the chalk was gunna win this race regardless of Bear being healthy or not.What was McANALLY 1 FOR 26 AT THE MEET,(AND THIS CHALK WAS ONE OF THE 25 PREVIOUS LOSERS AT THE MEET?) He was due.If I had a horse I could have trusted in the 5th,then I could have used the chalk in the 7th,but it wasn't the case. What is funny though is when people say "nobody was gunna beat that horse tonite." I would say that the statement is more often than not untrue.The winners of races like this are usually determined by the pace.IF THEY HAD LET THE 2 HORSE GET AWAY WITH SLOW SPLITS,then he would not have been caught.They went hard with that horse,and set it up for the deep rater in there.It is more poker than people realize,and usually the one who gets the set up they want, gets the victory. This was true for the chalk winner in the 7th,and it is the reason this "unbeatable" chalk in the 6th race got beat(they went right with him,and set it up nicely for Vermeil.)
06-17-2006, 01:28 AM
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