Nobiz takes lead in Dispatch Derby Poll

[Independent George]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Don't know if I'm supposed to release my ballot, but on the left is my Top 20 this week followed by the total-final... (I actually forgot Day Pass in my 20 accidently..)

MY BALLOT/FINAL TALLY

HARD SPUN 1 Nobiz Like Shobiz (10)
NOBIZ 2 Street Sense (3)
ADORE THE GOLD 3 Hard Spun (1)
NOTIONAL 4 Ravel
RAVEL 5 Circular Quay
STORM IN MAY 6 Great Hunter (1)
BELGRAVIA 7 Any Given Saturday (2)
MINEFIELD 8 Notional
LIQUIDITY 9 Stormello
GREAT HUNTER 10 Liquidity
C P West 11 Adore The Gold
EXHALE 12 Exhale
BIRDBIRDISTHEWORD13 Birdbirdistheword (1)
STORMELLO 14 Day Pass
CIRCULAR QUAY 15 Drums Of Thunder
CURLIN 16 Belgravia
TIAGO 17 Scat Daddy
DRUMS OF THUNDER 18 Lawrence The Roman
CAME TO PASS T-19 E Z Warrior
ARCATA T-19 Spin Master

Steve...really like your picks, especially top choice. I think Hard Spun is the real deal (although I'm a prejudiced "homer" who was keyed up on Smarty; Alex and Barbaro & bet them all in Futures). I think Jones is an underrated trainer---just hoping he sticks with Pino as his rider.
Like the pick on Curlin; and think Adore The Gold can be another "local boy" that has potential.

[JJP]

It is pretty amusing how fast people jumped off Street Sense. I think many of them are forgetting he was the best horse in the Breeders Futurity, when one factors in his nightmarish trip, pressing a very fast pace 4-5 wide throughout.

[blackthroatedwind]

I just watched the BC juvenile replay, as I was looking through the Risen Star, and Circular Quay had a VERY good trip. He moved up with Street Sense from the backstretch through the turn, and while certainly Street Sense benefitted from staying inside, Circular Quay was about three wide on the turn and didn't angle wide until the field reached the stretch. He merely sucked up behind a fast pace that collapsed while Street Sense exploded.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by joekelly526

No bias at all? Maybe maybe not but still believe Storm in May will be over used as wise guy horse due to his finish.

i don't think so, because i don't think he's going to blow his next field away and he won't look half as good. but his move that day (pace or not) was impressive....and speaking of pace...we all know how it will look on derby day.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the BC juvenile replay, as I was looking through the Risen Star, and Circular Quay had a VERY good trip. He moved up with Street Sense from the backstretch through the turn, and while certainly Street Sense benefitted from staying inside, Circular Quay was about three wide on the turn and didn't angle wide until the field reached the stretch. He merely sucked up behind a fast pace that collapsed while Street Sense exploded.

I agree that the two of them had the same trip and it wasn't particularly bad at all. However, there was a HUGE difference on BC day between being in the middle of the track and on the rail. I don't believe that Street Sense was/is 10 lengths better than Circular Quay and all the rest.

Circular Quay just needs to be watched this Saturday. I think we'll know after then whether he is a legitimate Derby horse.

NT

[peddler]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I agree that the two of them had the same trip and it wasn't particularly bad at all. However, there was a HUGE difference on BC day between being in the middle of the track and on the rail. I don't believe that Street Sense was/is 10 lengths better than Circular Quay and all the rest.

Circular Quay just needs to be watched this Saturday. I think we'll know after then whether he is a legitimate Derby horse.

NT

Agree that we need to wait until Saturday to get a better handle on CQ as a contender, however agree with BTW that CQ was not wide enough and appeared to just run on to get second while others did not fire or get trip. And as far as inside bias while we all know it existed the ten length plus gap between Street Sense and CQ was not created by bias alone

[JJP]

While I'm a strong believer in biases, I think the BC day "bias" at Churchill has been overblown to an extent. People site the winning post positions; look at Thor's Echo, etc etc. Thor's Echo was 3 wide most of the race and Bordonaro was on the rail. Invasor was well out in the middle of the track. The winner of the Distaff did get a rail trip but the 2nd and 3rd runners were nowhere near the rail. Yeah Dreaming of Anna won but that was hardly a surprise. She'd already beaten males in a turf stake routing.

As for Street Sense's margin over the overrated Circular Quay, SS was completely geared down late. Borel was just about standing up in the irons. Any urging at all and that margin is even greater (sorry JB and Len, I disagree that geared down winners often COULD win by more).

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by JJP

While I'm a strong believer in biases, I think the BC day "bias" at Churchill has been overblown to an extent. People site the winning post positions; look at Thor's Echo, etc etc. Thor's Echo was 3 wide most of the race and Bordonaro was on the rail. Invasor was well out in the middle of the track. The winner of the Distaff did get a rail trip but the 2nd and 3rd runners were nowhere near the rail. Yeah Dreaming of Anna won but that was hardly a surprise. She'd already beaten males in a turf stake routing.

As for Street Sense's margin over the overrated Circular Quay, SS was completely geared down late. Borel was just about standing up in the irons. Any urging at all and that margin is even greater (sorry JB and Len, I disagree that geared down winners often COULD win by more).

I think Asi Siempre could have beat Round Pond too had she had anywhere to run.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by joekelly526

Agree that we need to wait until Saturday to get a better handle on CQ as a contender, however agree with BTW that CQ was not wide enough and appeared to just run on to get second while others did not fire or get trip. And as far as inside bias while we all know it existed the ten length plus gap between Street Sense and CQ was not created by bias alone

I agree that the ten length plus gap was not created by bias alone, but definitely was aided by it. Personally I find Circular Quay to be just as much a Derby contender as Street Sense at the moment because I think it will be a miracle if Street Sense ever runs back to that race on BC day.

This Saturday should be a great indicator with CQ, as a huge field goes postward in the Risen Star. That should at least give him some more practice maneuvering through big fields. I'm expecting big things from him. Hopefully we will see the start of that on Saturday.

NT

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by JJP

Invasor was well out in the middle of the track.

I heard they worked on the track before this race because of the bias throughout the day.

The rail was the place to be for sure, but it's always tricky quantifying how much a horse gained from the rail trip. I feel like a lot of folks are discrediting Street Sense just for the sake of argument. He could have easily ran a much large number two-back at Keeneland if not for the premature move, and then the BC figure would be easier to swallow.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I heard they worked on the track before this race because of the bias throughout the day.

The rail was the place to be for sure, but it's always tricky quantifying how much a horse gained from the rail trip. I feel like a lot of folks are discrediting Street Sense just for the sake of argument. He could have easily ran a much large number two-back at Keeneland if not for the premature move, and then the BC figure would be easier to swallow.

I also had heard that the track was worked on between the Distaff and Classic since the only race in the interim was the Turf. I don't discredit Street Sense's performance for the sake of argument, but because I honestly think he will never run a race like that again. It was a performance like his father's Stephen Foster, just a monstrous effort that is nearly impossible to duplicate.

You're right about him possibly running a better number at Keeneland and you can probably toss the Arlington race because of the slop, I just don't see him running a race like the BC Juvenile ever again.

NT

[JJP]

Street Sense ran a monsterous race in the Breeders Futurity; he just didn't happen to win. There's no doubt in my mind he ran a far superior race to the two heavy chalks (Cirq Quay and Great Hunter) who narrowly beat him. He was 4-5 wide through the first turn, then makes a giant move wide into a 46 3/5 1:11 and change pace, which is lightening quick over the Kee Poly. The Kee Poly was also playing severely anti-speed. He continues wide through the second turn, disposes of Teuflesberg, a stakes winning sprinter, Bold Start, an allowance winner over a strong 3YO field at GP, and Birdbirdistheword, the Delta Jackpot winner and opens up a lead in midstretch only to get run down by Great Hunter and get nosed out for second by Circular Quay. I think one thing is clear: the Breeders Futurity proved to be the key race for the BC Juvenile.

[Travis Stone]

Excellent post, JJP. Very good points.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I just watched the BC juvenile replay, as I was looking through the Risen Star, and Circular Quay had a VERY good trip. He moved up with Street Sense from the backstretch through the turn, and while certainly Street Sense benefitted from staying inside, Circular Quay was about three wide on the turn and didn't angle wide until the field reached the stretch. He merely sucked up behind a fast pace that collapsed while Street Sense exploded.

Are the BC replays online?

As for CQ, I kicked his sorry ass out after the Hopeful. Until he gets a similar setup, you know, one of those rare perfect trips where everyone else runs and the race collapses, he's not winning. Against reasonably good quality competition, at least.

Hard to believe that some actually give this horse a shot.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Are the BC replays online?

TFM,

BC videos here: http://www.breederscup.com/bc_timecapsule.aspx

[Danzig]

i don't think anyone has jumped off the street sense boat-they're just waiting for it to hoist anchor before putting the luggage on board.

i'm gratified to see hard spun getting lots of backing. he's impressed me, so at least i'm not alone in my thinking.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Are the BC replays online?

As for CQ, I kicked his sorry ass out after the Hopeful. Until he gets a similar setup, you know, one of those rare perfect trips where everyone else runs and the race collapses, he's not winning. Against reasonably good quality competition, at least.

Hard to believe that some actually give this horse a shot.

Hard to believe?
Finishing no worse than 2nd in 5 lifetime races (4 of the graded stakes)?
He's not at the top of my derby list, but I've seen every one of his races and he has a lot of ability. I don't think he needs a dream trip to win any of the derby preps he gets entered in.

[lemoncrush]

It will also be interesting to see Johnny V ride CQ this weekend.
I think the horse fits Gomez very well, but I believe he's on suspension through Sunday (not sure if we would have came to New Orleans for this race anyway with the Graded Stakes at Santa Anita on SAT and SUN.)

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Are the BC replays online?

As for CQ, I kicked his sorry ass out after the Hopeful. Until he gets a similar setup, you know, one of those rare perfect trips where everyone else runs and the race collapses, he's not winning. Against reasonably good quality competition, at least.

Hard to believe that some actually give this horse a shot.

Five starts, 3 wins, 2 seconds, $781K in the bank. Yeah, a real sorry ass.

Since you threw this one off of your list, please don't keep us in suspense any longer. Let us know who IS on your list.

I wouldn't play Nobiz in the Derby unless it rained.

He just doesn't fit my profile for a Derby horse, not that I'm particularly adept at picking a Derby winner.